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Message: I don't think GA will get within 5 lengths of MD on Saturday. Mate and I are trying to broker a deal but are currently struggling to negotiate a reasonable price for both parties. What is a fair price for this bet? Thanks Sneakers
Message: Starting from the other side I think you would expect a $10 - $12 range for MD to beat GA by 5 lengths on Saturday.
The bet would seem to revolve around a fast pace for MD to get away and/or for the margin to be 5 lengths, GA compounding.
There is chance GA may not get the trip however it is hard to see a breakneck pace exacerbating the chance of this. Indeed he seems to control the race out front. So even if he doesn't get the trip, MD need to repeat her performance or even beter it to sprint 5 lengths past him given where GA would be at the 200m on the basis of his Ranvet run, where he appeared full of running towards the end.
I dare say both are adept down to slow - heavy maybe a different story, but I think the track would be no worse than dead anyway, given forecast and rain falling at present.
So lets say $11 and using a 100% market (if this bloke is your friend) - $1.10
On that basis if you lose, I dare say you'll still be able to keep your purple sneakers
Message: Stranger things have happened Ferg, you'd have probably got 20's on Lonhro finishing five lengths+ behind GA lst year in the farewell race. I wouldn't say it a ridiculous statement at all, it may be unlikely but not ridiculous. I think 11/1 is around the mark so agree with Galileo here.
Message: I'm in Canberra - our local bookie put up match bets last week for Alinghi vs Fastnet Rock and Elvis vs Makybe Diva - they don't have to win, you pick which one finishes first and by how far - anyone know how this works?
Author: doosra Timestamp:- 17/3/2005 10:15:53 PM Subject: Re: GA VS MD
Message: This isn't a two horse race..... just as one example, Vouvray absolutely loves the wet and is getting to her right distance - huge run in last year's CC when held up in the straight and motored for fourth. She is a live chance in this.
No way can I see Makybe winning by five lengths!!!! Personally I doubt GA at the trip but the rain affected track is going to assist him and if his jockey can control the pace from the front he is going to give a big sight - just think the last 200m will find him out. That's my take on it, I could of course be wrong.
The only worry with Makybe is that her brilliant Aust Cup win and the travel followed by the quick back up may just leave her a little flat. But she is a champion and they rise to this sort of occasion. The wet won't worry her at all, she now enters her most effective distance range and at this stage I think she is the winner - but I doubt it's going to be a case of Makybe first daylight second.
I rate Outback Prince some kind of blowout hope if the track is slow - I really like the horse and think he has a pretty big future - maybe it starts here.
Haven't completed the form study for this race so won't comment on the others yet.
It will be a great race we know that, and a competitive one - I think predictions of the Diva bolting in are a bit reckless, although I'd love to see the mighty mare do just that.....and she might, she's so good!
Message: Purple Pumps Is the bet "that MD finishes 5 lengths in front of GA or that she wins the race by 5 lengths ?" I think MD is the best of good things to win but if she wins by more than a length I will be surprised. If MD was not in the field I could concede that GA could win the race by 5 lengths if given the right run. He is that sort of horse if you give him a soft lead he can wind-it-up over the last 800m and leave them flat footed at the top of the straight. But the best staying mare in this galaxy doesn't race like that . So be careful, someone might be being set-up here as only one of the horses can win its races by big margins.
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