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Author: Gary Still Timestamp:- 3/8/2005 3:15:32 PM Subject: Why DISCIPLINE?
Message: A number of people on another thread believe that discipline is the key to winning. If it were that simple we?d all be millionaires. Imagine everybody rocking up to the races armed with strong codes of discipline, prescribing when to bet and how much to bet.
Is everybody going to bet the same horse? Is everybody going to bet the same price? Is everybody going to bet the same amount? Is everybody going to back the winner?
NO
And why? Because different punters use different METHODS to back different horses.
Racing has a vast amount of variables which makes it a phenomenally complex gambling sport. Discipline is but a fraction of what is required to do well. Yes discipline will help you, but it is not enough to beat bookies and TAB?s who are in the entertainment industry, NOT the hospitality industry. It is your METHOD which will set you apart from the rest.
RHC said the game is 20% method, 50% discipline, 30% luck. I say, in a 3 year period: The game is 90% method, 9% discipline, 1% luck.
BUT in any ONE race: The game is 33% method, and 66% luck. (discipline is not a factor if you INTEND to bet the race).
The above percentages are mere estimates based on observation and experience.
In a single race, the luck element is huge. Just to name a few of the things that can go wrong in a race; did the jockey put your horse in the right spot; is it getting the right pace; is it making its move at the right time; has it been caught wide, is it being taken on, has it been flushed out too early? It is impossible for every horse to be given every chance. Jockeys are there to try to put their horses to advantage and negate the chances of their main opposition. You can only pray that your horse is one of the small number that get the ideal run.
Even the calculation process involves elements of luck; is it really in the right class, is it really fit enough, will the distance suit, will the track conditions suit it, will it carry the weight, can it cross from the barrier? And how about the other 4 horses you probably give a chance to but decide to risk? There is much guesswork and estimation in the calculation process and a great deal of luck is required in narrowing it down to the one you want.
Only ONE horse can win the race, so what does that say for disciplined backers of all the other horses? Are their methods wrong, were they unlucky, did they make mistakes, or was it just not their turn?
Summarising 1. Its all about METHOD 2. Luck is NOT a factor in the long term (but is a HUGE factor in a single race) 3. Discipline improves profitability of a GOOD METHOD..
Message: Agree with all of your points. For me, 'Down Shifting' the number of bets in a day and being more selective in my methods has helped. Time will tell whether, over time, I will make a profit.
Recording of all bets is an essential ingredient in knowing your punting fortunes. Never used to do it, so times have changed.
Question: How many punters, having placed their first bet and made, for arguments sake, a 250% return on their outlay, would stop for the day? My guess, not many, or none. Is it the thrill of the punt, or profit, most punters desire?
I always think thats a load of rubbish. If a punter has 3 bets in mind for the day there is no reason why all three cant win, even at $3.50 (250% profit). How is a punter to feel if they have losing days where they lose 3 or 4 units yet on their winning days they win a mere 2.5 units and watch the occasional double figure run without their money just cos they had already won for the day?
Your logic seems to be based on the flawed law of averages.
Whenever I start having a lean trot on the punt, I often resort to an old system that I found in a racing magazine about 30 years ago. The basics of the system are fairly simple and I have modified it slightly to suit myself over the course of the 30 years.
Some will dismiss this system as rubbish, and that?s OK, but it?s been pretty good to me over the years, particularly at throwing up good priced placegetters in quinellas and trifectas.
SYSTEM RULES
* Never bet on wet tracks * Never bet on fields with more than 14 runners * Only bet on Metropolitan meetings * Rule out any horse in the race who finished further back than 7th at his last start, unless he ran 1st or 2nd the previous start. * Convert horses weights back to pounds ( multiply by 2.2 ) eg-56kg = 123 lbs. Going on each horse?s last 3 runs, assign the following points to each horse in the race 1st = 30 points 2nd = 20 points 3rd = 10 points Then take away the total points from the horses weight in pounds Eg: a horse carrying 123 lbs with form reading - 1.3.2 would have a point score of 63 * If a horse has won at the distance give it another 5 points and if it?s won at the track then it gets another 5 points, it?s score is now 53. * If the horse is a country galloper without any city starts then take 25 points off his score. Eg: a country horse with form reading 1.1.1 and carrying 123 lbs would end up with a score of 58, whereas a city galloper with the same form would have a score of 33. * When each runner has been assigned a final score following the above criteria, then the horse with the lowest number of points is your selection. * In the event of two or more horses having the same score, then jockeys and barriers come into the equation, either that, or don't bet.
Overall example * 211 Vo Rogue 58 td = 127-90 = 37 points.
Like I said this is just a fun system, so please don?t dissect it and tell me all its shortcomings, I?m sure there are plenty, but you?ll be surprised how many horses it selects that are real value and go on to either win or be placed. There?s some clever punters on here who may even see ways to improve on it, if you do let us know.
I now pick out my bets for a Saturday only, maybe 1,2,3, or 4 bets and back them all at an even stake. Not suggesting you should stop at 1 bet. Just making a point (although not clearly), many a punter will bet blind, maybe 30 - 50 bets in a day, hoping to win, yet almost none of them would consider stopping after 1 bet, when they are in profit. Just wondering whether it is winning or the thrill of having a bet that drives punters to do so.
Most punters love to bet, but hate losing. The point Gary was trying to make with his 'Down Shifting', is that most punters should lower their bets so that it has no adverse effect on their lifestyle.
I am also suggesting, that if you be more selective in what you bet, by 'Down Shifting' the number of bets you place overall, it is also possible you may be able to make your punting profitable, or at the very least, retain your outlay. I have never ever kept records before, or for that matter, made an overall profit on the punt, but am now making a more conscious effort to do so.
As a side note, been reading articles on professional punting. Most professionals are happy to make a return of 5% profit on turnover. Obviously they bet on a far greater number of races than I am looking at, but they know what they are doing and have a far greater racing knowledge. A 5% POT on a large volume of bets is a huge profit.
I will be happy if I can make any form of profit over a year. Definitely will be a step in the right direction. Keeping records, I will know exactly now, what I do punting and have a record of every bet I make.
I am going to have a look at your system this weekend, it might pay dividends. I always think too much form guide can be dangerous. That system of yours keeps it simple. Simple can often be the best.
Their is merit in taking profit at any point in the punting game. Once you have won the money it is yours. You realise your profit. If you continue punting, you could lose your winnings back. Not making any hard and fast rules, but just suggesting, if you are winning on any given day, finishing in front is a good option, worth considering.
For mine, currently, I will pick my specials, back them and look, at the overall result, recording my bets, POT, and current balance in my punting bank. A different, yet, still disciplined approach.
As a punter with a very basic racing knowledge, I like your system. In effect it is a very simplified form of doing your own ratings. Might pick a meeting on Saturday, do the form for 3 or 4 races, applying your methods, and see what I come up with. I could then, if I have any success with the ratings, look at adding time and speed factors using my sportsman, for a bit of fun. Will not bet any of the horses, but will give it a go.
Author: Gary Still Timestamp:- 3/8/2005 9:17:05 PM Subject: Re: Why DISCIPLINE?
Message: Punters, no matter how good or how bad, always have purple patches and dry patches.Until the inevitable and dreaded dry patch arrives, treat all POT figures with caution. ANY positive result is a good result.
Take note: if your total bets for the day are $500, you are $100 down before you even start.
In the meantime, make hay while the sun shines, Bluefawn!
Wasn?t that an amazing finale at Morphettville last Saturday between Bowditch and Lindop? Terry McAuliffe's commentary and excitement rarely fails to capture the moment.
Author: Gary Still Timestamp:- 3/8/2005 9:32:35 PM Subject: Re: Why DISCIPLINE?
Message: Bluefawn, you said;
"Their is merit in taking profit at any point in the punting game. Once you have won the money it is yours. You realise your profit."
An emphatic no. Taking the money is NOT a realization of profit, BECAUSE you are bringing that money back the following week.
"If you continue punting, you could lose your winnings back."
You must appreciate that when you return the following week you do in fact continue punting.
"If you are winning on any given day, finishing in front is a good option, worth considering."
A daily result means nothing. The most important result is the end of year result. Foregoing specials just to achieve a positive result for a particular day makes no sense, unless you are craving for a relaxing sleep on that night.
Money won at the races is ON LOAN until the day you decide to give up the punt and never ever set foot on a racetrack again.
Interesting the many and varied ways you can make a profit on the punt. Clare Lindop and Joe Bowditch fighting out the senior title. Kayla Stra and Scott Leckey fighting out the apprentice title.
You could have backed every runner for all 4 jockeys and returned a profit for only 3 winners:
Author: bluefawn Timestamp:- 4/8/2005 7:06:48 AM Subject: Re: Why DISCIPLINE?
Message: Gary,
The arguments in your last post are also floored.
In summary you are saying, you can't win, the bookies set their book to 120%, and th odds are in your favour.
If I have a 30% strike rate over a year (3 out of every 10 selections win) and an average wining dividend of $3.50 ($10.50 return for every $10 outlay), I make a 5% Profit on my turnover.
Likewise, if another individual has a 1/12 strike rate and averages a $15 winner, how can they not win overall?
Author: slackmac Timestamp:- 4/8/2005 9:34:24 AM Subject: Re: Why DISCIPLINE?
Message: A note on winning DAYS and losing DAYS:
It seems logical to argue that we shouldn't base our punting around the idea of a winning or losing day. After all - racing never stops, dividing our punting into particular days is arbitrary, the whole caper is cyclical etc etc
However, punters are subject to ups and downs just like anyone else - batsmen, footballers, stockbrokers, golfers. Some days your brain is working well, you're making all the right decisions and your form analyis is spot on. Some days you might be tired or stressed while you are doing the form and it leads you into errors that you normally wouldn't make if you were fresh and on the ball.
Being able to recognise that you didn't have your head on right when you were doing the form can save you from making bad bets. If you get to the track and find yourself backing losers and you know it is because your analysis was faulty ON THE DAY, the best thing to do might be to draw a line through that day and walk away.
Author: Gary Still Timestamp:- 4/8/2005 11:06:44 AM Subject: Re: Why DISCIPLINE?
Message: RHC, If we spin coins and I give you $1.90 to spin heads, you may win once and go home. But you will come back next week, and the week after and ULTIMATELY you will lose.
If I offer you $2.10 to spin heads, DON'T EVER GO HOME. You cannot lose.
It's not about making a profit and then going home when you've done so, it's about juddging whether your METHOD actually gives you an EDGE.
Forumites, my commitments to the music industry are about to become more intense over the next few months, so I will bid everybody adieu for a short while. When time permits I will login occasionally to lodge a tip or two.
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