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Message: Aparently Steven King said recently "Bad luck will be the only thing that beats her" in relation to Makybe Diva.
WRONG
It is extremely RARE that a CHAMPION gets beaten by BAD LUCK. A huge proportion of UNEXPECTED losses are caused by BAD RIDES.
The track will not be a “bad luck” excuse for Makybe Diva. The track is a KNOWN factor and to overcome its bias, the jockey simply has to take advantage of the Diva’s ability to accelerate and its ability to sustain it. If the jockey can’t do that then we might as well put a monkey on board.
When Northerly and Lonhro suffered UNEXPECTED losses it was invariably caused by a bad ride - NOT bad luck. Lonhro and Beadman were often beaten as a team of champions, but they were never beaten as a champion team.
Author: Timesman Timestamp:- 4/10/2005 1:12:42 PM Subject: Re: Bad LUCK
Message: Gary,
Lovely to have you back. I told you that we need you more than the music industry.
I agree with your comments as usual.
I think you can create "some luck" (expression feels awkward so change if you like) with an intelligent ride.
If bad luck (according to King) means that MD will have to make a long run around a lot of horses then I can't see how she can avoid some "bad luck". These horses may be running four and five wide given the shape of the valley.
Author: vo_rogue58 Timestamp:- 4/10/2005 10:23:24 PM Subject: Re: Bad LUCK
Message: Gary,
That’s a great theory, but like most theories they rarely work. A jockey is in charge of one horse in a race, his own, he cannot read the minds of the other riders or their mounts, therefore, from the time a race starts, until the finish line is reached a jockey and his mount are vulnerable, and his luck will only last as long as the circumstances of the race allow it to.
Most bad rides are attributed to a jockey misreading the circumstances of the race, but in most cases these circumstances change as the race progresses, and a jockey only gets one chance to get it right. Some may argue that bad luck and misreading the circumstances of the race are the same thing.
Malcolm Johnston’s ride on Kingston Town in the ‘82 Melbourne Cup is a classic example of this, his ride was perfect until the 150m mark when Dittman got a rails run on Gurner’s Lane after almost knocking Port Carling over the inside running rail, and going on to beat KT narrowly. Was it a bad ride on Johnston’s part ? Did he misread the race ? Or was it bad luck ? Johnston certainly took advantage of KT’s brilliant acceleration and his ability to sustain it, just as he’d done in so many of the King’s other victories, but because he was beaten it was called a ‘bad ride’. Johnston rode KT a treat and lost the Cup, Dittman rode Gurner’s Lane a shocker and won it.
At the 3050m mark every punter was cheering home the genius Johnston and the champion Kingston Town..... at the 3200m mark every punter bagged Johnston for a bad ride in getting the champ beaten.
It much easier for a punter to see a bad ride after the race than it is for a jockey to avoid bad luck during it.
Message: 'Lonhro and Beadman were often beaten as a team of champions, but they were never beaten as a champion team.'
Wrong Gary. Beadmans ride in the 2003 Cox Plate was not bad and Lonhro was at the top of his game. They were beaten. It was just bad luck for Lonhro that the Cox Plate was run at Moonee Valley.
Author: Gary Still Timestamp:- 5/10/2005 12:16:43 AM Subject: Re: Bad LUCK
Message: Disagree NortherlyChamp.
Beadman must have believed Lonhro would only JUST get 2000m and made sure he did not cover 1 inch of extra ground in the 2002 Yalumba where he beat Sunline by a nose. He gave Lonhro important COVER for as long as he could so that he could save him up for one last sprint. One of the best rides I have ever seen.
Along comes the 2003 Cox Plate.
The pace was quite fast and the track was rain affected so ideally you had to have a horse that could run FURTHER than 2000m.
So, do you take Lonhro 4 wide around the infinite turn of Moonee Valley or do you take advantage of Lonhro’s ultimate weapon (brilliant acceleration) and wait until the straight?
Vo, Kingston Town carried 59kg – the jockey knew that. He had to run 2 miles – the jockey knew that. The Flemington straight affords horses with acceleration a terrific opportunity – the jockey knew that.
He made his move when there was no need.
Two classic cases of horses with brilliant acceleration losing because their riders were too eager.
Acceleration is the best attribute a horse can have. EAGERNESS is an enemy, TIMING is a friend.
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