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Message: I thought she may struggle against open class as she never beat much when she won her 3yo races, although it is hard to know where she is at this preperation as she hasn't had the best of luck.... is she another 3yo filly that doesn't take the next step or should we give her another chance??
Message: Agree with lister, 2000+ does look to be her go but there is no chance i would be backing her in any open group ones. Wouldn't mind to be proven wrong but can't see her winning say a Turnbull or Caufield/Melb Cup which she is most likely to be running in.
Wortel, the fact that she won both Oaks is not really a pointer as to whether she is a strong stayer. She was just simply too good for the other fillies. Mahogany won both Derbies but he was a very good sprinter as an older horse. He was no stayer after his 3yo years. Grand Archway won both Oaks and if her career was not cut short after only 2 starts as a 4yo I reckon she would have gone the same way as Mahogany.
Author: iglesia Timestamp:- 25/9/2006 6:01:20 PM Subject: Re: Serenade Rose
Message: The problem with that list, MediaCentral, is that, while the horses in question didn't go on to do a great deal, it doesn't address whether it was lack of ability or other problems that were to blame; for instance, Special Harmony beat Shamekha and Ike's Dream in her last win, and both those fillies went on to be outstanding open company performers
Message: Dont totally wipe her off your Caulfield Cup list. She needs the distance and will most likely get a nice run. Im not saying she will win it, cause i dont think she can, but she has a good chance of a place. A lot of the quality horses this spring are going to the CP. Im not going to back her until the CC. She's better than the likes of Hollow Bullet and Dizelle, who cant hold their heads above water, little own win a decent race.
Author: Arthur Timestamp:- 26/9/2006 10:36:23 AM Subject: Re: Serenade Rose
Message: You just get abit worried when for the 3rd apparent time the horse has 'rotten luck'. I've no doubt that even though she beat rubbish in both Oaks she was well on her way to being a huge chance in the Cups. Either she hasnt come up this prep or her mind is elsewhere. OSJ is another im not overly sure about, his runs have been average and he'll need to improve a lot to figure. Sphenophyta is at this stage, Lee's Cups horse ... who would've thought that 2 months ago.
Her Oaks time was over a second faster than Headturner's Derby time.
She's still fat and hairy, but qualified for the Cups. Freedman won't have her at her absolute peak until Caulfield Cup day. She'd want to show a bit more at her next start, but I wouldn't be writing her off.
As for "little own" ... LOL ... I haven't heard anything that funny since Slim thought Miss Finland might receive a penalty for the Cox Plate!!
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