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Author: GunPunter Timestamp:- 11/6/2007 12:08:35 AM Subject: Weight/Class Ratings
Message: Anyone else here use their own weight ratings?
One problem I've encountered is what LIMIT WEIGHT to use for WFA races. For a race like the Cox Plate I use the 3yo weight for colts (i dont worry about the fillies) and for other WFA races I have used worked out different weights to use but for some WFA races, for example the Doomben 10,000 WFA I didn't know what to use as the LIMIT WEIGHT to calculate weight ratings from that race. So what I did was use 53kgs and using that figure those horses from that race rated below Sniper's Bullet on my ratings scale. I didnt back it though as still fine tuning my weight scale.
Anyone have some thoughts on LIMIT WEIGHTS?
Another question is what bonuses (if any) do you give for winning margins or field strength?
We all know that one cox plate is not the same strength as another one, but how do you adjust for that? how do you calculate field strength in Kilos?
I've been making a subjective assesment of field strength which is fine most of the time but it would be good to have a more objective system.
Example
Winning Horse wins grp 2 race by 3.5 lengths. Do you give a bonus for the margin and how do you calculate field strength compared to the average group 2?
Author: hareeba Timestamp:- 11/6/2007 11:36:45 AM Subject: Re: Weight/Class Ratings
Message: Gunpunter
Handicapping theory is my passion. I handicap horses on form through weights and classes. Other factors such as margins etc. also come into it but weights and classes I consider paramount.
If you develop a handicapping theory stick with it for a while and see how it works. Through experience you will learn how to 'decipher' it better.
For example, you mention the Brisbane carnival races. I find that handicapping those races on face value can be quite tough. Often the Brisbane stakes races over the last 5-6 years I consider quite weak. If you simply sift through some of the group races you will find many runners that are poor stakes performers or haven't even competed in stakes races. Also, a lot of NZ runners compete and NZ stakes races are also very weak.
Message: Yes these winter races are a step or two down in class so I gave 70kgs to Takeover Target in the 10,000, less than a Yalumba winner. TT is probably better than some Yalumba winners but his best distance is 1200m and I dont believe he's still at his absolute best. At his best he's up around 75kgs.
Message: Well, what I meant was that the Brisbane Carnival is weak. And if Takeover Target ran in any races (such as Doomben 10000), his rating would still be the same. He's proven at the elite level locally and internationally.
Its the weaker opposition that should be handicapped accordingly. For example, the Qld Derby winner, Empire's Choice would be rated below the AJC Derby winner, Fiumicino.
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