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Author: zozman Timestamp:- 24/10/2002 1:50:50 AM Subject: Defier:the forgotten horse
Message: G'day all, With all this talk about whether B.Espirit will run 2000m,Sunline vs Lonhro, Northerly vs Grandera & whether Assert.Lad/Ustinov should be in the field everyone seems to have forgotten Defier. To my way of thinking the form horse,has the wood on Lonhro, who in turn has a slght advantage over Sunline ,Northerly will be at a great disadvantage having to backup/back in distance/new jockey, dido Fields of Omagh ,Grandera too many questions climatised?,new track?,headcase?,wet?,MR HYDE the jockey?,Bel Espirit 2000m?,and 4th jockey in last 5 starts. Which brings me back to Defier,in form trainer/jockey/horse & has NEVER lost a race on a wet track.Something to think about? tah
Message: guy walter belives he is no hope if seriouse ran comes. he belives "he won't let down with his amazing sprint" in the wet. having said that i think he should be o.k. if the track is just dead.
Author: Arthur Timestamp:- 24/10/2002 9:38:52 AM Subject: Re: Defier:the forgotten horse
Message: They can keep on forgetting him so his odds can drift to over $8.00 and i can collect more when he wins. How dare he be dismissed from this race, his George Main and Warwick Stakes wins over Lonhro were fair and square, he will race quite forward on Saturday and he has the fastest sprint in the race. No reason why he cant win. He and Lonhro are the new stars of racing.
Message: There was nothing 'fair and square' about the George Main! Unless you are allowed to polax horses at will. I said it then and I will say it now, Lonhro would have passed both defier and sunline in a few bounds that day, and he will prove it on Sat. It is worth noting that only three horses have been truely set for this race, and defier is not one of them.
Message: Whether he can win or not remains to be seen, he's certainly not forgotten by me. But does anyone want to supply me odds that Munce will outride Beadman once again? Coz I'd snap them up in a second.
When they come out of the barriers, Munce will tack on the back of Northerly instead of taking up the option of going to the fence. This will force Beadman to be either three wide or back further than he actually wants to get. It will also provide Defier with the perfect cart into the race.
I haven't made my mind up on a winner yet, but Defier is definitely in the mix.
Message: i agree as long as the tracks dry defier will be a great chance. his won a group 1 over 2000m so the distance is no worry,there should be plenty of speed on which will really suit defier. he has beat lonhro and sunline before and is at much better odds.great bet.
Message: let me tell you this hitchcock If munce rides anything like he did on G main day he will be out for about three months. The victorian stewards wont be accepting any rubbish from jockeys putting a horse out of the race like munce did to lonhro in the G Main. Riding like that in the great race in australia??He would have to be a brave man. Dont forget the stewards are especially touchy on this race beacuase the worlds eyes are always on the cox plate.
Message: Hmm. let's see JB. 10% of $2 million is $200,000. I think The Monkey will do what he has to. and if that means boxing in Lohnro, that's what he'll do. and if that means taking a holiday after the race, he won't mind too much. Defier is now out to $10 with TAB & NSW TAB fixed odds. The forecast rain did not arrive today, and the Valley track is firm. the filly B4 Too Long ran a Track Record over 1200m tonight. so barring a flood (not to be ruled out in melboure), with the rail going back 6m to true, the track will be just fine for Defier. He is way over the odds.
Message: Defier will win the race. The trainer Bart cummings was deadset right when he said the three chances are sunline, lonrho and defier. Let me tell you, Cummings knows the threat posed by Defier. He thought as much just before the George Main.
Point 1: Defier is the best of the aussies. The horse has the biggest acceleration of any of the aussie contingent. He's beaten sunline when he just pulled up alongside her and then burst clear. Even assertive lad burst clear of sunline, after she was allowed to dictate. Her era is well and truly over. As to lonrho, her backers can continue on as much as they like, but the record shows that he has been beaten twice by Defier at wfa. At some point in time, you have to stop riding on emotion and examine the form. And that form looks ominous for Lonrho. As for the other horses, well, this race is just going to be too tough, backing up from the caulfield cup. Bart cummins dismissed northerly and f of omagh - who am I to dispute that assessment.
Point 2: Grandera is slightly overrated. Everyone forgets that Grandera came in behind Univeral prince in the HK race. He then got smashed by Golan, and then bounced back to beat Hawk Wing. Now how do you interpret that loss to Golan? A one off? I don;t think so - i think the win by small margin to hawk wing is consistent. If you look at hawk wing, hawk wing began a donward spiral about two races ago. He lost his most recent race when he started favorite, to a very moderate horse. So when Grandera lost to Golan, that was no one-off. If that was no one-off and the Golan form is true form, he is not going to be quite good enough to win against this mob.
Point 3: the rain is Defier's only enemy. It scares me to death. I go to sleep dreaming about it. BUt I look at the odds and see $10. If Defier is one of three chances, all rated equal (and I don;t think., from the above, that they are equal), each horse should be $3.00, right? So $10?? bring it on. So long as the rain stays away. Although i have been comforted by what you others have said about the rain overnight, etc
Message: Zozman, I agree with you that Defier is the forgotten horse and I hope he keeps drifting cos the better odds mean more money for the winning punters. However, to say that he has NEVER been beaten on a wet track is pretty dumb. He has never started on a track worse than dead. Zaparri should check out the weather for some other capitals if he thinks Melbourne is prone to flooding. It usually takes days of slow steady rain for Melbourne tracks to bog up yet Sydney can get a downpour in a matter of hours that will produce the same results. Melbourne is not generally known for big dumps of rain that Sydney and Brisbane are. What does happen down here though is that it gets bloody cold and can drizzle for days on end. The Moonee Valley track should pull up ok and be no worse than dead which will give every horse a chance. Except Ustinov and Assertive Lad. Cummings and Waterhouse are absolutely kidding themselves.
Message: Incorrect Bob. I can distinctly remember Guy Walter saying after his Queen Elizabeth win back in the autumn that he was putting the horse away for the Cox Plate rather than go for the Stradbroke in my home town.
Message: True words, Melbourne despite it's reputation only gets roughly half the average yearly rainfall that Sydney does. If you don't believe me check out the www.bom.gov.au website. I was amazed when I researched this for my geography class I teach
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