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BELMONT SATURDAY

 Handicapping -- Handicapping Forum
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Author: Speedy Gonzalez 
Timestamp:- 12/11/2003 1:01:17 PM
Subject: BELMONT SATURDAY

Message:
1-12.00 LEE STEERE STAKES 1400 M
Of $111000 Of $110000 and $1000 trophies. First $74800 and trophies of $400 to owner $300 to trainer $300 to jockey, second $19800, third $9900, fourth $3300, fifth $2200. (GROUP II) For three years old and upwards. No allowances for apprentices.
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1 AUSSIE STRIKE R B Rogers   58
2 BLEVVO D R Harrison   58
3 CENTO Fred Kersley   58
4 CORPORATE BRUCE Hec Mc Laren   58
5 EARLY EXPRESS P J Giadresco   58
6 FINITO P H Humann   58
7 HARDRADA Lou Luciani   58
8 KENSYL BAY T W Widdeson   58
9 MAIN STAGE A R Taylor   58
10 MAPPERHOLIC S J Wolfe   58
11 MODEM T M Andrews   58
12 MOGUL Lindsey Smith   58
13 OLD FASHION V A Brockman   58
14 SHIRAZAMATAZZ Fred Kersley   58
15 TRACK JESTER W L Radford   58
16 GOLDEN DELICIOUS Jim Taylor   55.5
17 KENTIARA R N Harvey (Jnr)   55.5
18 TRIBULA A H Mortimer   55.5

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2-12.00 THE NORTH COAST TIMES COMMUNITY (A WELTER) 1600 M
Of $28000 Of $28000. First $19040, second $5040, third $2520, fourth $840, fifth $560. For three years old and upwards. Apprentices can claim.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 DEXIAN A J Bergersen   58
2 DESERT DREAMER G F Durrant   56
3 KENTIARA R N Harvey (Jnr)   56
4 KIM STORM M Burnett   56
5 SHIRAZAMATAZZ Fred Kersley   56
6 ALIBI BAY P J Miller   55.5
7 MR. TANZANIA Lou Luciani   55
8 AUSSIE STRIKE R B Rogers   53
9 BEYOND DISPUTE Neville Parnham   52.5
10 FORT LAVINIA R W Matthews   52.5
11 KING CANUTE Lou Luciani   52.5
12 MISS TORPAGO D R Harrison   52.5
13 RESCUER E A Martinovich   52.5
14 JAUNTY LAD W H Godecke   52
15 KILLADEAS G R Gulberti   52
16 KINGSTON BLAZE Ross Price   52
17 OLD NICK G C Ballantyne   52
18 ROSE OF OAKFORD S J Rowe   52
19 THE GREY CARDINAL V G Ferrier   52
20 TISSOT S R Bates   52
21 TOY PRINCE N S Fletcher   52
22 TWIN POWER K W Leaver   52

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3-12.00 THE MELVILLE TIMES COMMUNITY 1000 M
Of $28000 Of $28000. First $19040, second $5040, third $2520, fourth $840, fifth $560. For two years old. No allowances for apprentices.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 BUSINESS GIRL G W Webster (Snr)   56
2 GEOLOGIST Lou Luciani   56
3 JONCANDY G E Daly   56
4 REDWOLDT Lou Luciani   56
5 SPRINTLANE Neville Parnham   56
6 DESOLATOR M J Midgley   55
7 LUST FOR DUST P D Tapper   54.5
8 RACONTUNE G W Webster (Snr)   54.5
9 SKY RED Lou Luciani   54.5

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4-12.00 THE GUARDIAN EXPRESS COMMUNITY 1200 M
Of $28000 Of $28000. First $19040, second $5040, third $2520, fourth $840, fifth $560. For three years old. Apprentices can claim.
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1 PURE EXCITEMENT G W Webster (Snr)   58.5
2 AIR POCKET P H Jordan   57.5
3 EDUCATED MONEY Neville Parnham   56.5
4 LUKABOOM S R Casey   56
5 TRIBULOT G P Poletti   56
6 PERFECT OUTLOOK G N Taylor   55.5
7 ELLICORSAM S L Miller   54
8 LIONHEART Lou Luciani   54
9 NATIVE COUNTRY Shane A Edwards   54
10 NO JUSTICE T M Andrews   54
11 SOUTHERN RAIDER Mrs B M Dudley   54
12 DRIVEN TO VICTORY V A Brockman   53.5
13 LADY SHERIFA Lou Luciani   52.5
14 PRETTY SMIK T M Andrews   52.5
15 MAGIC AMBER J W Price   52
16 VIKING LASS Ian Glading   52

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5-12.00 COMMUNITY NEWSPAPER GROUP-W.A. GUINEAS 1600 M
Of $126000 Of $125000 and $1000 trophies. First $85000 and trophies of $500 to owner $250 to trainer $250 to jockey, second $22500, third $11250, fourth $3750, fifth $2500. (GROUP II) For three years old. No allowances for apprentices.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 CAT IN A HAT T M Andrews   56
2 CHANGING LANES R C Mc Pherson   56
3 DESIGNER LABEL D H Hopperton   56
4 HAPPY JOHNSON G C Ballantyne   56
5 HARTLEYS DREAM Lindsey Smith   56
6 LAETARE E A Martinovich   56
7 LUKABOOM S R Casey   56
8 MAGIC ACES P J Giadresco   56
9 MARSHALL VIC R C Mc Pherson   56
10 OLD SOL B Wilkinson   56
11 ON TARGET C A Stelmach   56
12 RIVER MIST G E Daly   56
13 SENECA C A Stelmach   56
14 STAR TREK Neville Parnham   56
15 WOODCUTTER'S RED Lou Luciani   56
16 BELHARI W J Bradshaw   53.5
17 COLD REWARD Neville Parnham   53.5
18 DETAIL T M Andrews   53.5
19 DIAMOND DASH David Edwards   53.5
20 FRANGIPANI BAY Neville Parnham   53.5
21 MOONFIRE Lindsey Smith   53.5
22 ON THE WATCH (NZ) Alan Mathews   53.5
23 SPIRIT LADY Fred Kersley   53.5
24 TISSOT S R Bates   53.5

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6-12.00 THE EASTERN SUBURBS REPORTER COMMUNITY 1400 M
Of $28000 Of $28000. First $19040, second $5040, third $2520, fourth $840, fifth $560. For three years old and upwards 3 Metro wins, Special conditions. Apprentices can claim.
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1 FEEL THE PULSE G F Durrant   58
2 HEAVY NOVA Fred Kersley   58
3 POLIWHIRL S L Miller   57.5
4 CRIMSON SAKURA R W Matthews   57
5 LAKESIDE RHYTHM P D Wagg   55
6 SECRET LINK Fred Kersley   54
7 DAWN TROOPER B M Carpenter   53
8 INITIAL VELOCITY S W Barrass   53
9 AWESOME ANNIE Lester Byrne   52.5
10 PREDICT D K Morton   52.5
11 ROSE OF OAKFORD S J Rowe   52.5
12 ROYAL OMEN W J Bradshaw   52.5
13 TRIBAL SECRET Michael Williams   52.5
14 FRANGIPANI BAY Neville Parnham   52
15 JAUNTY LAD W H Godecke   52
16 LUKABOOM S R Casey   52
17 ON THE WATCH (NZ) Alan Mathews   52
18 SCREEN MASTER G C Ballantyne   52
19 SOUTHERN LOVER J G Pike   52
20 TILT THE GLASS W J Bradshaw   52
21 TISSOT S R Bates   52
22 TRUE M H Powell   52

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7-12.00 THE WANNEROO TIMES COMMUNITY 1000 M
Of $28000 Of $28000. First $19040, second $5040, third $2520, fourth $840, fifth $560. For three years old and upwards 3 Metro wins, Special conditions. Apprentices can claim.
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1 CATION G M Ayres   58
2 FAMILY DREAMS J W Price   57
3 STARJAH J W Price   56
4 BONNIE BRAE V G Ferrier   54
5 CHANI B R Larsson   54
6 ZINGARLO Keith Humann   54
7 IVORY MAN P Parsons   53.5
8 JOSIE'S SHOW B M Kay   53.5
9 RULAIN D S Barker   53.5
10 THE KOMATIITE O J Cocking   53
11 UNCLE BRIAN R C Mc Pherson   53
12 PREDICT D K Morton   52.5
13 CELTIC RIDGE Shane A Edwards   52
14 CUCHULINN Ross Price   52
15 DIAMOND CUT W J Miller   52
16 MEMPHIS SPIRIT G D Manolini   52
17 TAMOSHI L P Dwyer   52

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8-12.00 THE STIRLING TIMES COMMUNITY 2200 M
Of $28000 Of $28000. First $19040, second $5040, third $2520, fourth $840, fifth $560. For three years old and upwards 3 Metro wins, Special conditions. Apprentices can claim.
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1 CONSPIRATOR Lindsey Smith   58
2 OUR SELECTION J W Price   56
3 HIGGINS GOLD G F Durrant   55
4 JEUNE'S FANTASY S J Wolfe   54
5 ZAKARAK C A Stelmach   53.5
6 HELLO STRANGER Colin Webster   53
7 KING JUGAH Fred Kersley   53
8 GLITZY SHOW G C Ballantyne   52.5
9 NOW'S GOOD (NZ) Mrs M M Payne   52.5
10 ALL FERRARI K W Williamson   52
11 BATTLE WIND M D Seinor   52
12 BRAVE DEMUS G F Durrant   52
13 CURRAGH'S VIEW Alan Mathews   52
14 IDOL OF KINGS W J Miller   52
15 MR. RIPLEY C V Hughes   52

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Author: hkh 
Timestamp:- 12/11/2003 1:23:50 PM
Subject: Re: BELMONT SATURDAY

Message:
Lee Steere: Mapperholic
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Author: Ern Manning 
Timestamp:- 12/11/2003 10:55:03 PM
Subject: Re: BELMONT SATURDAY

Message:
I'll give you the early tip, back Finito for the place in the Lee Steere. Will be stormin home and prob run 3rd.

Should be at least $3.50 a place.

Oh yeah and Tribula will win very comfortably.
S.J. made a bad decision last start to take a sit and was badly blocked. Hopefully she will be paying a bit better this week. The Recoup is comin!!!

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Author: Speedy Gonzalez 
Timestamp:- 12/11/2003 11:16:22 PM
Subject: Re: BELMONT SATURDAY

Message:
some interesting stats from wa website:

WA Top Weights Top National Strike Rate
Date: 4-Sep-2003


16.55 % of horses weighted with 57.0kg or more in handicap races run in the metropolitan area of WA in the 2002/3 racing season were winners.

This compared favourably with the national figure of 14.16%.

In WA 550 horses were allocated 57.0kg or more and of these 91 were winners.

The strike rate of 16.55% compared with the other weight categories as follows: 55/56.5kg 11.13% 53-54.5kg 9.19% 52-52.5kg 4.54%

Horses weighted on the minimum weight of 52kg were 1006 winning 35 races, a strike rate of only 3.47%.

Throughout all of Australia 6601 horses were allocated only 52 or 52.5kg during the season. 2180 or a staggering 33% of these were in Western Australia.

Horses weighted with 57.0kg or more represented 7% of all runners in WA and they won 13% of races run. For the other categories: 55-56.5kg 25% of runners 31.5% of winners 53-54.5kg 45% of runners 41.5% of winners 52-52.5kg 27% of runners 13.5% of winners

Throughout Australia horses weighted with 57.0kg or more represented 14% of all runners and won 21% of all races.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Author: Flight 
Timestamp:- 13/11/2003 12:09:54 PM
Subject: Re: BELMONT SATURDAY

Message:
Did you notice that King Canute's full & Special Harmony's half 2yr old bro is having his first run on Saturday. Redwoldt.

Going by the rest of the family you would think that he also has a bright future.

Overall, it looks a great day's racing.

BTW, when are they considering returning to Ascot?

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Author: Speedy Gonzalez 
Timestamp:- 13/11/2003 12:57:25 PM
Subject: Re: BELMONT SATURDAY

Message:
guineas - laetare from designer label and cat in a hat.
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Author: Speedy Gonzalez 
Timestamp:- 13/11/2003 2:52:19 PM
Subject: Re: BELMONT SATURDAY

Message:
LEE STEERE
1st mapperholic
2nd old fashion
3rd hardrada
4th finito





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Author: Power Quest 
Timestamp:- 13/11/2003 7:32:11 PM
Subject: Re: BELMONT SATURDAY

Message:
Flight, racing returns to Ascot on Railway Stakes day. Looking forward to return to Summer HQ.

Cheers

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Author: Shifty Powers 
Timestamp:- 14/11/2003 3:02:10 PM
Subject: Re: BELMONT SATURDAY

Message:
Never fear folks Shifty has looked at the Perth races for you all. Shifty will give a quick run down of the early races before hitting the Quaddie.

R-1 Skip

R- 2 Don’t really like anything

R – 3 the way Cation was going early this year, you would have to give it some chance but Shifty, will look to Uncle Brian to win for the first time this time in.

R – 4 Conspirator seems to be going around every weekend, Whats Lindslay Smith trying to do??? Keen on Higgins Gold here to win over the more suitable distance.


Okay Qauddie Time, first off Guineas
R – 5 Chances to 1,2,3,5 and 12. Tough race, Shifty is putting Diamond Dash on top. Shifty is putting the Pen through the form of the last race that DD contested, many hard luck stories with DD at the height of them, 3rd up and should now be looking for the 1600m. The top three have to go in on form and class and especially the pull in the Kgs to their last couple. And Shifty is defiantly not leaving Star Trek out, probably settle last from the Car Park, but could once again roll them.

R- 6 Absolute race in 4 maybe even 3. Mapperholic just over tribula with Finto 3rd, and the other chance is Old Fashion. Obviously Tribula with the form and is better of at the weights, but Shifty cant look past Mapperholic. Dead set cant see anything else wining other than those mentioned.

R –7 Lakeside Rhythm should lead a long way with, tribal Secret and On the Watch getting there late. Actually Shifty is quite keen on tribal Secret.

R-8 Shifty doesn’t want to give away his entire Qauddie just in case a few others jump on board, thus destroying Shifty’s divi. So he wont be able to give his selections in the last but Shifty will say that he is potting Shirazamatazz.


On other Matters, Shifty was very disappointed with the Ascot track on Melb Cup day. How far was the rail out??? Better be nothing like that for the bigger races.



Shifty      

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Author: catweazle 
Timestamp:- 14/11/2003 3:22:27 PM
Subject: Re: BELMONT SATURDAY

Message:
Shifty, I quite like Hardrada. You haven't included him in your chances, just curious as to why you don't rate him a chance.
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Author: snappa1 
Timestamp:- 14/11/2003 3:43:04 PM
Subject: Re: BELMONT SATURDAY

Message:
WA Guineas
Laetare

Lee Steere
Tribula (Golden Delicious EW)

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Author: dhodge 
Timestamp:- 14/11/2003 8:17:27 PM
Subject: Re: BELMONT SATURDAY

Message:
lee steere: hardrada
guineas: woodcutters red


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Author: RQ 
Timestamp:- 14/11/2003 11:03:15 PM
Subject: Re: BELMONT SATURDAY + Railway

Message:
Just heard Rilway Stakes and Kingston Town Stakes(Fruit & Veg) are going to be held at Belmont, confirmed tonight.

What an absolute joke.

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Author: Power Quest 
Timestamp:- 15/11/2003 12:19:59 AM
Subject: Re: BELMONT SATURDAY

Message:
Shifty, the rail was out to it's max on Melbourne cup day. I think it was 17m.

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Author: Power Quest 
Timestamp:- 15/11/2003 12:27:47 AM
Subject: Re: BELMONT SATURDAY Railway

Message:
Rq, if that's the case, then it's a disgrace. From what I've heard, the turf club had prior notice to all the debacle that was to befall the track at Ascot but their response was "she'll be right". Behold when it came to day to switch to ascot from belmont and Ascot didn't come upto scratch, they were caught with their pants down.

But praise must be hand to the curator's for the sterling job in keeping belmont upto an excellent standard. Best winter course in Australia and might prove to be one of the top all year round courses in Australia.

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Author: Power Quest 
Timestamp:- 15/11/2003 12:55:12 AM
Subject: Re: BELMONT SATURDAY, PowerQuest..

Message:
Great day of Racing at Belmont, here's my selections...

Main Races...

Lee Steere - Tribula($10). Bonny mare who has a good 2nd up record, good WFA performer and has won 5 times at 1600m. Unlucky last start and should make amends for it on Saturday.

WA Guineas - Going for a bit of an outsider here in Star Trek($16). Has drawn the Swan River, but it's last start win was full of merit. It blundered at the start and was near last on the turn and flooded home for a great win. Failed 2 starts back, but Star Trek was found to be suffering from a complaint. Tough race with many hopes, but I'll take Star Trek E/W.

Other thoughts on the card at Belmont,
Race 1 - Watch

Race 2 - Like Ellicorsam($3.50), should be a two horse race between it and Tribulot.

Race 3 - Bonnie Brae($6.00), has never won over the 1000m but did win a trial over a 100m by 4L in the 7/11. Will be up near the leading brigade and will give a good sight.

Race 4 - Our Selection($4.20), should have won last start in in the Northam cup(average ride, Very average). Drawn the the outside but will be hard hold out as it is in good form. Fred Kersley horse King Jugah will be his main danger.

Race 5 - Star Trek

Race 6 - Tribula

Race 7 - Lakeside Rhythm($5.50), Front running mare who will be hard to catch. Drawn one and should easily lead and be too good.

Race 8 - Kim Storm($5.00), Racing in top fashion lately and has FINALLY drawn a barrier that's not in double digits. Was wide the trip last start and battled on gamely to run 5th in the Asian Beau stakes. 1600 is limit but should get the pie ride from barrier two and hope Knuckey can boot him home. A watch on Fred Kersley's Horse Shirazamatazz, hope it has come back from it's little hiccup and runs well.

All in all, a good days racing as attention switchs to the west as the carnival heats up.
My best E/W for tommorow is in Race 6 Number 13 Tribula.

Cheers and Good Punting Tomorrow.
Power Quest.

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Author: Hitchcock 
Timestamp:- 15/11/2003 2:44:13 AM
Subject: Re: BELMONT SATURDAY, PowerQuest..

Message:
WR02 : Tribulot
WR03 : Josie's Show
WR04 : Conspirator
WR05 : Detail
WR06 : Golden Delicious
WR07 : Feel The Pulse
WR08 : Kentiara

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Author: dartagnan 
Timestamp:- 15/11/2003 3:11:46 AM
Subject: Re: BELMONT SATURDAY

Message:
Same also...

WA Guineas: Laetare

Lee Steere: Tribula

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Author: kerrin 
Timestamp:- 15/11/2003 8:47:34 AM
Subject: Re: BELMONT SATURDAY

Message:
I'll give you a tip. "Love a Storm" on Railway Stakes Day
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Author: bmegee 
Timestamp:- 15/11/2003 9:49:06 AM
Subject: Re: BELMONT SATURDAY

Message:
Speeds
"Throughout all of Australia 6601 horses were allocated only 52 or 52.5kg during the season. 2180 or a staggering 33% of these were in Western Australia"
These figures are skewed as In sydney horses are not weighted below 53 usually as it is too hard on the jocks-but you knew that already.

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