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Author: Todman Timestamp:- 16/6/2012 9:59:08 AM Subject: Ippy value bets ...or not
Message: As per straddie day, I also love the Ipswich Cup day
Picking winners is usually more than difficult, so value bets to the fore.
R1 Grey Assignment looks the bet to me BUT On Face Value EW or an exacta with GA on top
R2 Fantisha could be something special - apart from Caldetes and Splendent Choice, Moment Of Impact and Lady of Capri for exotics - I will be leaving out Caldetes
R3 The hype horse Rocker and the weights horse Startsmeup must be included, but Aquatorial (a fave of mine) and my pick, Norocos for multiples
R4 A horribly shallow race - Crosscannons
R5 Gai's Choice would be a shortie with a better barrier. With an improving track, $101 EW Montana Flyer, who has to go to lead from out wide if any chance, is a speculator but won two Millie's in a row and ran ok again in that race on a heavy track, this year. Changed stables so she probably is past it but last year in the Tiara, ran a bottler. Dismiss 1st up effort on heavy track then back in distance last start, for a plodding effort. Distance is spot on for her. There are a few handy ones in race so it is still a speculator at best.
R6 I give chances to 1, 2, 3, 6, 7 and my value bet Ausworld. I will sttle on Kinnersley and Ausworld for quinella
R7 Belltone and Gundy Son with my value Jetset Lad
R8 My best value of day is Slysera ($31), Aquatorial's stablemate, which is seemingly useless info. He needs a firmer track and should get that by the last. Absalon is another value chance from wide alley, but with his racing style, will need a special ride from Scrivvo.
I like Jimmy Byrne at Ippy, and he has a few good value rides and is on three of mine. Go Jimmy.
Message: id be inclined to give Ametsis one more chance phil,didnt realy let down as good as i thought it would,probably been better ridden for luck,than trying to come down the outside.I realy think this horse is looking for a mile now,1350 was too short,especially with the 300 mtre straight,ran home ok ,but didnt ping,i hope they find a good race for it before they take it home. As far as well weighted horses go Startsmeup would have been the bet of the carnival,unfortunatley a bit short for me. hope it turns around for u soon ,good luck.
I'm not tipping well and haven't been for some time unfortunately. I don't think my analysis is that bad but it isn't bringing the desired results.
What I'm really focused on is finding well weighted horses and I'm confident things will turn around. Watch this space!
Re Ametsis I think we can say the previous run was a fluke now in hindsight (Heavy surface on a dodgy track). It was a bit hard to know that before the event but it didn't do quite enough in that race on Saturday to suggest that it has turned over a new leaf. I thought the ride was a bit negative and resulted in it being caught wide near the rear but had it repeated the prior effort it would have won surely.
I thought Ipswich played really fair on Saturday and gave all runners their chance. The win of Gai's Choice (I did back it) certainly suggested so.
My biggest regret from Saturday was not taking the Startsmeup/Liesele Quinella because if you liked one you had to be keen on the other. They were so well in carrying their respective weights and had met before with the filly finishing in front.
Author: quezacotl Timestamp:- 18/6/2012 11:06:33 AM Subject: Re: Ippy value bets ...or not
Message: Hey I wouldn't mind if they charged Bk, I can afford it, but on an Ispwich bus drivers salary you might be the one left out....
You put that Ipswich line in your post as a joke, you know it, I know it, everyone who read it knows it...so why the bitter rebutle..?
Of the 4-5 horse's I tipped to follow over the Brisbane carnival... Mid Summer Music wins the Straddy @ 33-1 Shenzhou Steeds wins the Ipswich Cup @ 10-1 Just in those two horse's there is massive profit You call em darts, I call em solid tips Keith.
Message: look at the way theses two guys go about analyzing a meeting,then have a look at the cr@p u post,u havent learned much have you?. I cant wait for the day r/s start charging to use this site,then you,a dart throwing tipster,and a few other trolls will be gone.
Message: Well done todman and Phil the punter,you guys have got your finger on the pulse.hope u both had succesful days. Phil i also thought Ametsis was a certaity,and hooked into it,my lack of knowledge of the Ipwich track cost me. Todman,ive been watching Absalon since its been in Queensland,been racing quite well on wet tracks that dont suit it,Next time this hores gets a good track,it wins,time to start putting the money down.
Message: BR1 RIVER OF SALVATION should go close to winning this going on his close 3rd to Ideal Position in the Mudgee Cup giving that horse 2.5kg. He then went on to win a midweek metro race in Sydney before finding the wet track unsuitable last time. Ideal Position has gone on with it running super at Scone behind Torio's Quest before winning in town last Saturday. ROS on the minimum here looks nicely placed in a weak event.
BR3 STARTSMEUP- Not overly happy with the price and a bit worried about Liesele but hopefully the barrier rules it out. How can you not back this horse today at the weights?
BR6 FANTASTIC BLUE is probably the value with a surprisingly good record between 2000-2200m. It's record at Eagle Farm this prep is deplorable, not once getting within 9L of the winner in 3 starts. Perhaps that factor and the 2400m last start were the reason he ran so poorly there. Drawn well and a drying track won't hurt.
BR7 RIVA DE LAGO was going to be the horse to beat 2 weeks ago in the Belltone race until the rain came and he didn't handle the track one iota. I said he was well weighted there and he meets Belltone on the same terms here. Alley is a big negative but if they go quick he could storm home at an overly generous quote.
BR8 AMETSIS just has to backed here going on it's career best 4th beaten less than a length last start at G2 level. Gets in on the minimum here in a very weak 3yo race and the $4+ seems a luxury really.
SR5 REIGNING gets what trainer Con Karakatsanis says he needs here in regard to a very wet track and a gruelling distance. Not a bad effort in the Qld Derby last week and had the track been wetter you'd assume he would have finished closer. Interesting that the winner of that race Brambles has been matching the times of the older & WFA horses in his wins up in Qld.
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