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Author: josephjohn84 Timestamp:- 28/5/2004 1:18:24 AM Subject: HOW TO GRADE BLACK TYPE RACES
Message: me again this one i'll need to patent... as weve seen recently racing victoria has adopted ratings based handicapping, so essentially they know the ability of all horses in races. lonhro's rated 120, and a plodder is rated at 60 and so forth. Instead of assigning a race annual g1 status, they should do away with this and award floating balck type status depending on the race strength per year, announced at acceptance time. at acceptance time, if the AVERAGE rating of the horses competing is, say, 110, then it should be a g1, 100 a g2, and so on... the gun races like cox, caulfield, melbourne, newmarket, doncaster, stradbroke etc would always rank alot higher than 110 average so would always be g1's. its those g1 races whom attract ******* fields year after year who will get demoted. this is without doubt the fairest way of assignign a race quality... to get g1 status you would now have to have beaten a field of 110+ rated gallopers. There should also be reductions in the average ratings for 2 and 3yo races to reflect their immaturity. If u check timeform ratings on g1's you will see an averge in the cox plate of 120, yet for instance, the fruit n veg was in the 80's. Its there staring at us in the face its a good idea. i know u guys dont like alot of m theories but this one is BACKED UP BY OFFICIAL FIGURES. jj
Author: Tontonan Timestamp:- 28/5/2004 9:00:22 AM Subject: Re: HOW TO GRADE BLACK TYPE RACES
Message: Retrospective grading of races does have a lot of merit, and the idea has been floating around this forum for a longtime. I think Infidel first brought it up.
The main problem is that if you dont know in advance how races are graded how on earth are you going to devise a campaign for your horse ?
To some extent racing already classifies races retrospectively. The ANZ Classifications committee draws up a list of the highest rated races each year by averaging the ratings of the first four placegetters.
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND THOROUGHBRED CLASSIFICATIONS Race Ratings to April 30th
Race RACE NAME Gp. 114.3 George Main S. 1 114 George Ryder S. 1 113.3 All Aged Stakes 1 113 WS Cox Plate 1 112.5 Caulfield Stakes 1 112.3 AJC Australian Derby 1 111.5 Melbourne Cup 1 111 Doncaster Handicap 1 110.5 St George Stakes 2 110.5 Arrowfield Stakes 1 110.3 Chelmsford S. 2 110 Queen Elizabeth Stakes 1 109.8 Epsom Handicap 1 109.8 Newmarket Handicap 1 109.5 Futurity Stakes 1 109.3 Rosehill Guineas 1 109 Ranvet Stakes 1 108.8 Warwick S. 2 108.8 CF Orr Stakes 1 108.8 Coolmore Classic 1
This system is very similar to what you propose and it does not allow horses of inferior ability running well back in the field to unnecessarily lower the rating of the first four who contest the finish.
But, before you get too enthusiastic about this method if Defier (115)-Pentastic (110)-Distinctly Secret (111)-This Manshood (108) are the first four across the line in the Doomben Cup this 'pathetic' Gr.1 will rate 111 - the same as this years Doncaster Handicap !
Author: Speedy Gonzalez Timestamp:- 28/5/2004 9:13:44 AM Subject: Re: HOW TO GRADE BLACK TYPE RACES
Message: two high rating horses in the field and 10 duffers vs a bunch of moderate rating horses?
which race is harder to win?
a: the first one. yet it might get a lower rating in your method.
imagine if the connections of a horse aim it at a certain race and it wins it and they think they r winning a grp 1 race, only to find out some 20yr has rated their race a grp 3! lol
no buddy it wouldnt work.
what should be done is reduce the no of grp1s down to 20 and then we would see class fields contesting each of the races and any wins are genuine.....
Author: mcgarret Timestamp:- 28/5/2004 10:22:23 AM Subject: Re: HOW TO GRADE BLACK TYPE RACES
Message: JJ84
I will always listen to people that think - and you are thinking. This is a good forum - so don't let negative feedback worry you. It is mainly meant to be constructive, so you can learn a lot from it if you choose carefully.
Your youth generates a lot of good thoughts, but the experience of others can provide you with different perspectives to help flesh out your ideas.
Tonto is a poster who will always back his opinions with a truckload of data. He is the type of poster whose opinion we all should respect, if not necessarily always agree with.
The more emotive responses can be safely ignored.
He has come back with some very solid points in defence of the DC, a race that you are really rubbishing.
So balance is the key when trying to debate your point.
The main concern that I have with your proposal is to do not only with the planning of horses campaigns for connections, but the attraction of sponsors to ensure that the race carries prizemoney commensurate with its (perceived) status.
For instance, if San Miguel had ploughed their mega-millions into the AJC Easter Carnival for five years, how would they feel if in year three of the deal, as a result of a dearth of G1 performers, that the Doncaster or Derby was downgraded to a G2?
They would feel ripped-off and would be unlikey to put more money in to the caper - or worse still, seek legal recourse for damages.
You have to think of the bigger picture. Group One racing is critical to the success of the smaller carivals as well as the big ones.
There is the "glamma" factor associated with G1 racing, whether it be in Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide or Perth.
(As an aside, would Wimbledon be downgraded to "non Grand Slam" status if 50% of the top 16 seeds fell sick, were injured our were out of form and did not play - I think not).
As I have said before, the national planning of these carinivals so as to equitably spread good horses is the key issue that needs to be addressed.
We cannot "second guess" the quality of foal crops and the racing stock from year to year.
We have been blessed in this country since 1990 (and for decades before that of course) with an almost uninterrupted array of super G1 animals.
There will be bad years, but on reflection I don't believe we have to turn the whole system on its head to accommodate the exceptions rather than the rule.
This years DC is not too bad based on Tonto's numbers.
Author: The Shu Timestamp:- 28/5/2004 10:31:29 AM Subject: Re: HOW TO GRADE BLACK TYPE RACES
Message: One of the problems with this method as I have found with my method used in scoring my horse of the year is that an earlier race in the spring/autumn can rate higher than some of the feture events.
For example as happens many years a field full of top liners will line up for the Liston Stks (G2). This race could earn G1 status under your system yet it is only a warm up race for 75% of the runners. B the time the Cox Plate rolls around many of these top liners have either gone amiss or have targetted the Cups and the Cox Plate may rate lower.
In principle I support what you say as many of our G1's are a joke but in addressing the problem I think we need to hasten slowly. A prizemoney threshold of $500000 for a G1 would be a good start.
Author: The Shu Timestamp:- 28/5/2004 1:40:35 PM Subject: Re: HOW TO GRADE BLACK TYPE RACES
Message: Yes I have Speedy, but this year because I ran the spring super sable I did nothave time to post the results weekly. After that I decided to update at the end of the spring and then reveal all results at seasons end.
The final results are being collated and will be posted straight after the Brisbane Cup.
As I mentioned on another post these will be the basis for this years spring super stable comp so people can then start thinking about their stables for the coming spring.
Author: Da G Show Timestamp:- 28/5/2004 3:56:45 PM Subject: Re: HOW TO GRADE BLACK TYPE RACES
Message: JosephJohn
You are obviously very passionate about maintaining the standards of group racing in this country, but I would suggest you temper your ?patented? ideas with a visit to the ARB website, in particular the page that relates to group/listed racing and the Australian Group & Listed Races Advisory Group (AGLRAG). I believe Tonto tried to steer you down this path previously but here is the link should you wish to have a look.
In summary though Australia has between 2.3-2.6% of its races as black type (about 550 out of 20,000) and according to item 9 of the working guidelines ?The AGLRAG endeavours to establish and maintain a "pyramid" approach in order to ensure international credibility with regard to the allocation of Australian "Black Type" races, ie. Group 1 - 12%, Group 2 - 15%, Group 3 - 19%, and Listed - 54%. (It is advised that this approach is based on the Pyramid Model used by most Part 1 countries).?
In other words whilst having a ?grand circuit? of ?10 super G1s? (one of your ?patents? that already occurs at the trots, I believe) and a cull down to 50 G1s overall may neaten things up it would be a major overhaul that defies international convention in the grading of races.
Ps. if you are looking to cull a few then I?d suggest you start with the cup and classics from Adelaide!
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