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Message: "I continue to find it astonishing how easily the Northerly Nuts were so quick to blame pilot error for his Sydney defeats yet can't accept it could possibly have had ANYTHING to do with ANY of Lonhro's defeats. And I'M supposed to be the BIASED one?????"
You're comparing 6/7 length defeats with 0.1 length defeats.
Apples and oranges.
Grand Armee was running away from the cream puff in the qe. Margin would have been 3 lengths instead of 6. Still a good win.
Northerly lost 2-3 lengths due to the bad ride in the BMW. He would have won easily otherwise.
In the Cox Plate if you add 3 lengths to Lonhro he still loses by 4 lengths.
So I can't see how you figure that bad rides cost Lonhro victory when the margins were so big!!!!!!!
Author: Kicker Timestamp:- 5/4/2005 10:35:54 AM Subject: Re: QE stakes
It might surprise you, but I totally agree with your previous post about pilot error costing GA the Cox Plate - Oliver slaughtered it.
But then you revert back to your Dubbo Maiden Class form with your next post.
Do you seriously want to argue, based on 1 farcical meeting at 2000m, Grand Armee was 6 LENGTHS BETTER THAN LONHRO at that distance? Keep in mind Lonhro did win 5 G1's at 2000m
I can't see how you can find it so easy to accept pilot error as an excuse for Grand Armee's defeat yet find it incomprehensible to accept it as an excuse for any of Lonhro's defeats. Anyone that can't accept pilot error had at least SOMETHING to do with Lonhro getting beaten 6 lengths by GA in that QE2 is in serios denial. The JOCKEY HIMSELF admitted it & that is extremely rare. As a racehorse owner, Bell, tell me how often your jockey has come back to scale & said sorry mate, I butchered that one. I was part owner of a horse that had over 70 starts & I can't recall the jockey EVER saying he "stuffed up".
Let's have an OBJECTIVE look at his 2 Cox Plate defeats. It might surprise you, I didn't back the horse in either race & it might also surprise you, I was never a huge fan of the horse.
I'm sure a Northerly fanatic like yourself will VIVIDLY recall, as they left the back straight, Sunline led with Northerly hot on her heels. Lonhro was a good 10-12 lengths behind those 2 horses at that point. Remember at his previous start in the Caulfield Stakes over 2000, run in near record time, he was always within 4-5 lengths of Sunline during the run. Nowhere near the distance he was behind her in that Cox Plate, run at a slower pace. He set off after her at the 600, was within 3 at the turn 400 out & ran her down.
I'm the first to acknowledge circumstances change from race to race & also remember Lonhro missed the kick SLIGHTLY in that Plate. However, I put it to you, had Beadman had Lonhro within 4 lengths of Sunline & Northerly from the 1000m onward, he would have finished a hell of a lot closer to Northerly than 7 lengths. Not saying he'd have beaten him but to continue to suggest, as yourself & Speedy do, that Northerly was a 7 length superior horse to Lonhro, based on that one meeting, is ludicrous.
Coming into the 03 Plate, I thought surely Beadman has learnt from last year & he will have Lonhro in touch with the leaders from at least the 1000m mark. Alas, what does he do? Action replay of the previous year, a mile off the leading pack. I'm pretty sure the sectional times show he ran something ridiculously quick from the 1000 to 400 in an effort to pick the leaders up & consequently, by the time he did pick them up on the turn, he was out of petrol, as 99% of horses would be. Put him on the back of FOO & Defier from the start, as he easily could have, exactly how Gauci rode him in the St George the following year, then peel out approaching the straight & he wins by 3.
I continue to find it astonishing how easily the Northerly Nuts were so quick to blame pilot error for his Sydney defeats yet can't accept it could possibly have had ANYTHING to do with ANY of Lonhro's defeats. And I'M supposed to be the BIASED one?????
Message: You answered it yourself he is a still a good horse up to 2000m, he wins but not all the time and rarely by more than a length.
Compare that to his form over 2000m where he wins by open lengths.
His a far far better horse over 2000m one of the best of modern times.
But up to 2000m i have seen plenty just in recent years that would be far too nippy for him but it changes as soon he gets to 2000m, just see his performances against Lonhro, up to 2000m Lonhro wins everytime, at 2000m he walks all over Lonhro.
Message: Grand Armee's loss had nothing to do with Moonee Valley. It was Oliver's ride and the scrimmage at the start, which could have happened at any track, that ruined Armee's chances.
I'm sick of Lonhro whingers bagging Moonee Valley because their horse didn't win there. He wasn't the best high pressure 2000m horse going around, that's why he got beaten in his two Cox Plate attempts ... not the Valley.
Message: JamesMc - Who's a better horse than GA below 2000m? While he doesn't often win as easily as he does over 2000m he's won 3 from 5(2 G1 ans 1 G2) in that distance range this season which included wins over Group 1 horses like King's Chapel, Shamekha, Court's In Session, Desert War and Winning Belle. His only losses were first up over 1300m(in which he gave about 7 or 8 kgs to the winner and beat Private Steer home) and 1200m.
Message: Savabeel is a donkey. He just got lucky in the Cox plate as there was no speed on and he was too hard to mow down when the sprinting started with 48.5kg on his back. He will need to carry a similar weight to have any chance of ever winning another big race, but that aint going to happen.
Message: Though Grand Armee might be the best 2000m horse in the world, i meant to say this part of the world meaning Aus Nz, HK & Japan.
As he has never raced on dirt there is no way of knowing how he rates against a horse like Roses In May or Ghostzapper.
And other than him going to Europe we might never know how he rates against the best there either such as Ouija Board etc over 2000m.
Though with the retirement of horses like Falbrav and High Chapparal i think the standard in Europe over 2000m is down on recent years, nothing as yet coming through to rank in the same class as those two great racehorses and warriors.
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