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Author: mayanna Timestamp:- 16/8/2005 1:38:50 PM Subject: The Melbourne Cup
Message: Nominations for the Melbourne Cup has come through and of course Plastered is favourite to take it out at $7.00.
But lets look at other chances with better odds:
Fantastic love: missed out on a start in the Melbourne Cup but showed ability to win the Group 2 Elizabeth Stakes in Flemington. Fixed odds at $51.00, good each way appeal.
Lachlan River: Won the G1 Queensland Derby (2400m), $31.00.
Westerner: Has Beaten Vinnie Roe and Distinction when he won the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot, $21.00.
Mr Celebrity: Wonderfull horse trained by Gai Waterhouse, always tries his hardest, and is reported to be doing well, winning a barrier trial with very little effort. So far has 3 wins from 4 starts, won a 2100m race by 5.8L, and is $41.00.
Grey's Inn: Can run a very strong 2400m so 3200m may not be a problem. International horse, $35.00.
Yeats: don't know much about him does anyone? I heard he is a good stayer, $41.00.
Hug's Dancer: Doesn't like it wet so didn't do well in last year's Cup but has a chance, $41.00
Makybe Diva: not very good starting odds at $8.00 if you compare it with last year when she started at $12.00 but you have to include her but my advise is to wait until weights are set because she may not start if its too much.
But if you're looking for horses with higher odds then there is:
The Bighearted: tries his best most times, you would hope so at $101.00.
Men at Work: Zabeel horse that won at 2400m at Warwick Farm not long ago coming from a spell, lightly raced and $61.00.
What is everyone elses opinion? Is there any horse(s) that is nominated for the Melbourne Cup that is at good odds that you guys particularly like?
Author: Hitchcock Timestamp:- 19/8/2005 10:35:20 AM Subject: Re: The Melbourne Cup
Message: Dungbeetle,
If you haven't worked out that last year's Cox Plate was one of the softest run Cox Plates in history, then I think you should be the one giving up the punt.
Witness Grand Armee's next run as evidence that horses coming out of it were as fresh as daisies and could run up to their peak the following start.
Then Count Ricardo came out and spanked the older horses at WFA at his next start ... but, no, keep talking up the Queensland Derby as better form ... lol
Author: Rex Timestamp:- 19/8/2005 12:55:48 AM Subject: Re: The Melbourne Cup
Message: Ive been singing Westerner praises for some time. I am no handicapper but i cannot see him getting under 57 kgs. But keep in mind he is also nominated for the Arc de triomphe and is currently 20-1. Now i dont pretend to be in the " know " about anything over here in Europe regarding racing but i would be suprised if they tried for both, its alot to ask of the horse. If the horse gets 57, 57 1/2 and i was to find out he was going then the 20-1 seems very juicy indeed, even allowing for the dreaded travel factor. Ive got no doubt he has the best qualifications for 2 miles of any runner being sent from this part of the world. Vinnie is still racing well but seems to have lost a bit of zip which can only be expected at his age and having watched Distincly run the other day im not convinced he will be a force although he is very honest.
Author: dungbeetle Timestamp:- 18/8/2005 9:52:52 PM Subject: Re: The Melbourne Cup
Message: Hitch,
If you haven't worked out that the Cox Plate takes a lot out of horses, maybe you should give up punting. Savabeel peaked in the Cox and was well on his way down after (i.e. in the VRC Derby). Most Cox Plate winners over the years have failed at their following start of that preparation. People who follow Cox winners into their next start need to have a long look at themselves and the HISTORY. Note that I tipped Plastered to win the VRC Derby on the forum because his form was peaking for that race and I didn't think Savabeel could win, not because I thought Plastered was a better horse.
So beating Savabeel and a group of nothing three year olds who did nothing in the Autumn is not great form. Lachlan River won the Derby in a canter under race conditions that will probably prevail in the Cups. Stop believing the hype...
As for Westerner, over my dead body will I back a Danehill in the Melbourne Cup.
Author: infidel Timestamp:- 18/8/2005 8:14:14 PM Subject: Re: The Melbourne Cup
Message: Muirfield, I had an Arctic Scent/Oscar Schindler double going for a squillion, so I am something of an authority on that mangy Irish git .... grrrrrrrr.
No, he was well weighted, 56.5, I think it, because the weights came out before he won the Irish St Leger and ran a place in the Arc.
But Westerner's form is much more exposed than that. Exposed! That's a bit of an understatement. With 6 wins in a row, he's practically waving his bottom in the handicapper's face, Bart Simpson style.
Message: Don't know how true that is Mayanna - Double Trigger, Swain, Fantastic Light, Kayf Tara and Vinnie Roe, among others, all got a fair whack when they were weighted for the first time for a Melbourne Cup.
Author: greyshot Timestamp:- 18/8/2005 3:23:43 PM Subject: Re: The Melbourne Cup
Message: Todman Thank you, Tributes was the horse I had in mind. Did she win the VRC Oaks then or was her second particularly impressive ? I just recall being convinced she would be the star of the spring as a 4 year old. It was a lesson learnt, so often the impressive 3 year olds of the previous year do not go on with it.
Author: camel56 Timestamp:- 18/8/2005 3:03:02 PM Subject: Re: The Melbourne Cup
Message: what are you on mayanne? Westerner less that 56kg? you are dreaming my freind. And by the way, there is no such thing as the "melbourne racing board." The handicapper is from Racing Victoria Limited.
Author: mayanna Timestamp:- 18/8/2005 2:17:53 PM Subject: Re: The Melbourne Cup
Message: Westerner will likely not get more than 56kg because this is the first time he will be racing in the Melbourne Cup. The Melbourne Racing Board always gives favours to first time international horses, its a way of luring them to Australia. The only way I think he could get 58km is if he wins the Caufield Cup where there is a 2kg penality, but don't think thats likely to happen.
Author: slim Timestamp:- 18/8/2005 9:28:59 AM Subject: Re: The Melbourne Cup
Message: Patsy, Well we can forget Westerner then if weight is his main problem. With his record there is no way the handicappers will give him less than 58kg. He has won his last five races, all two miles and beyond and against some pretty decent horses including Distinction. I just looked up his record since he commenced racing in the UK Racing Post, pretty impressive to put it mildly.
Author: sunline_007 Timestamp:- 17/8/2005 6:53:06 PM Subject: Re: The Melbourne Cup
Message: In my opinion you should be loading a bit on Westerner the overseas French runner in the cup. From what i've heard he is coming and obviously a super horse beating Vinnie Roe.
And if you recall, had Vinnie roe taken the run Makybe Diva done in last years cup he would have won as easy as Media Puzzle.
Author: greyshot Timestamp:- 17/8/2005 6:13:03 PM Subject: Re: The Melbourne Cup
Message: About 3 or 4 years ago I coupled "the field" with a Crown Lodge AJC Oaks winner (?) in the Melbourne Cup. I was convinced she was the Melbourne Cup winner. Her Oaks win couldn't have been more authorative. The fact that I can no longer remember its name might have given it away, but it didn't come up in the spring and didn't even start in the cup, don't think it ever won another race ? What was its name ????
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