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Author: Sunline Timestamp:- 16/5/2003 8:59:56 PM Subject: Question re Northerly
Message: To Northerly "groupies",
If you believe Northerly to be a superior horse to Sunline that's fine, your opinion. I am interested however as to your opinion on which horse has the better record?
I ask because many horses are equal in ability (I believe Northerly and Sunline to be so) but what separates them, is the amount of times they use this ability, and over how long.
Do Northerly "groupies" believe; 1) he has a superior record to Sunline? 2) is a better horse when both are at their peaks? 3) or both?
Sorry - I think that was me that said the thing about no one changing their minds (I don't think it was even on this thread)
Apologies to your good self
The point I was trying to make was that, even though some good debating points sometimes get made, most of the people engaged in the "debate" are pretty much implacable and unmovable from their entrenched positions
I did not intend to impute pigheadedness to yourself
Obviously you are sufficiently open-minded as to be able to change your position in the face of well-reasoned argument
Missed this first time around, but a response is needed.
Firstly I acknowledge my error in relation to the years of the Australian Cup. Yes, I did mean 2001 and 2002.
I must take issue with your response, which is a deliberate attempt at distortion and misrepresentation. As well it is full of generalisations designed solely to deflect away from a weak argument.
You presume that the Australian Cup is a lead up to the BMW, I
Author: Gary Still Timestamp:- 23/5/2003 7:17:56 PM Subject: Re: Question re Northerly
Message: Northerly will find it so much harder to win his third Cox, because of greater awareness of his archilles heel since last year. $ The composition of the field will be all important in determining his tactics. The presence of fast finishers and staying types combined, will prove hard to counter. $ But saddest of all, if he ever succumbs to a new champion, some of the ex Sunline fans who became northerly fans, will become ex Northerly fans and "new champ" fans. They will praise the new king and can the old one as if he never existed. Thankfully, only a few have the venom and contempt to do this.
Message: Lol RQ, duly noted. IMO, his 2002 win was the better one,(does anyone disagree?).
Good point dungbeatle, lets wait until he's finished, then we can compare records - the true measure of horses. Don't think we'll give up that easily though even if he does win another Cox, he would certainly be equal with her though, but lets not get into that.
Message: Let's put this argument to the side until Northerly has retired! It really is ridiculous to compare the records of the two when one of the horses is still racing. The reality is after he wins his third Cox Plate, Northerly will assume his rightful place beside the King and comparisons with Sunline will stop (except for the groupies on this site).
Message: RQ, are you saying that last years race was decisive proof of the two horses' capabilities? Surely you know more about racing than to suggest so.
Good post Robbie, doubt you'll get a response though. Without a misleading stat they haven't presented anything yet.
Message: When does the statistic become relevant if 3 nil is not decisive enough.
Does it have to be 5 nil or even 10 nil, when is it definitive.
What you conveniently forget is that Northerly is a chaser and who is to say he wouldnt have run her down anyway.
More importantly as others have said he was relatively inexperienced himself, surely any open minded person would concede that. He proved that the following season when he won with ease.
Message: Spot on as usual Robbie. Unfortunately, the 3 nil mantra is the only arguement these people know & when challenged to anything else you put an end to their replies.
Author: Horlicks Timestamp:- 23/5/2003 6:55:52 AM Subject: Re: Question re Northerly
Message: Something that I don't think anyone has raised.
So lets say Sunline was on the way down in 2001, tired from her overseas campaigning and having lost 1/2 a length over a 2000m trip. For arguments sake, what about the possibility that Northerly was on the way UP in 2001, still learning, and only hit his peak in ability at the end of 2002? Which seems very possible given his CC-CP double? So even if it was an 85-90% Sunline that fronted in the 2001 plate, perhaps Northerly hadn't hit absolute peak in terms of ability (not fitness).
Its pointless I recognize but I get sick of Northerly fans using one statistic which IS misleading like every other head-to-head. There are other situations you can argue.
Author: robbie Timestamp:- 23/5/2003 12:03:38 AM Subject: Re: Question re Northerly
Message: The "Northerly is better than Sunline" claim would be far more compelling if those who argued it would not state their case in such arrogant, absolute terms. It would also benefit from the Northerly camp using another piece of evidence rather than the increasingly monotonous 3-0 mantra.
There can be no question that Northerly was superior to Sunline in both the Springs of 2001 and 2002. The 5YO and 6YO Northerly was superior to the 6YO and 7YO Sunline over 2040m. But as far as I am concerned that is all that it proves, it cannot prove anything else because Northerly never raced Sunline as a 4YO or 5YO!
I find it rather odd that the Northerly devotees cannot even make room for the possibility that Sunline may have lost a half length between her 7 length Cox Plate victory and her 2001 losses to Northerly particularly after her two gruelling overseas campaigns in the mean time. A half length deterioration in a 5YO mare when she comes to racing as a 6YO is extremely plausible, if not probable. And that 1/2 length is all that separates her from a 2-1 head to head against Northerly.
Those Northerly fans who point arrogantly at the head to head whenever anyone challenges their theories on Northerly's superiority crying "you can't argue with the stats" seem to miss the point. Not even the biggest Sunline fan would argue that Sunline was the better horse on the times she was beaten by Northerly, but by the same token there are NO statistics to suggest that this superiority would have been evident had he met her when she was a 4YO or 5YO. We will never acquire these statistics. Northerly fans seem to be invoking a "leap of faith" of their own, when they suggest that Sunline was in exactly the same form on the occasions she met Northerly, as she was as a younger horse.
Message: Presumably your talking about last year, Childs never said she was better than ever, nor did McKee - he said that she ws as good as they could get her. Reigning HOTY doesn't mean that she was at her career peak for the Cox Plate last year. If that was the case she would have run this Autumn.
Author: Bell Flight Timestamp:- 22/5/2003 7:33:12 PM Subject: Re: Question re Northerly
Message: Sunline was the reigning HOTY... what more do you want? Ok then: the trainer said she had never been better! Is that enough? No: ok the jockey also said she had never been better!
Message: That's the best and clearest post you've put up Northerly Fan, it was good. I don't think anyone will disagree with you ont he fact that Sunline is better around a mile than Northerly and he is better at more than 2000m.
I appreciate your thoughts about a 3-0 record being decisive, but do you really think that the last time they met was a true indication of what both horses are capable of?
Author: Pinkline Jones Timestamp:- 22/5/2003 5:51:20 PM Subject: Re: Question re Northerly
Message: You really are an annoying blowfly Bell Flight - if you cannot understand something that is clearly explained then please ask an adult who might be able to help you.
Message: Mauler, finally an answer from a pro-Sunline perspective that I can live with!
Sunline was a brilliant galloper absolutely no doubt, better than Northerly over sprint distances up to the mile no doubt. Better in the wet most likely, especially (obviously) over the shorter distances. Absolutely no qualms agreeing with that summisation.
Northerly was a better horse over mile plus distances, can't mention the type of track over these distances because I don't know enough about how good Northerly could've been under extreme pressure in the wet because it hardly happened.
Cox Plate (plus) distance, dry, Northerly better galloper. That's my opinion and it's backed up by results between the two respective horses. I couldn't care less how many squibbs each horse flogged in other races, hell we see now how many squibbs Lohnro flogs over 600 these days. Head to head over 3 races not 1 or 2 but 3 races tells the true story.
A horse can beat another horse once and it can be fluke. Twice is pushing things but it's still possible the better horse lost. But 3 times a'beaten, sorry but it's 3 strikes you're out you aint as good as the victor plain and simple. Anyone who argues otherwise is simply being stubborn or lives in a chosen denial dreamland.
Author: Viscount Timestamp:- 22/5/2003 1:02:01 AM Subject: Re: Question re Northerly
Message: NortherlyFan- I'd like to know how you decided that 2000m is the WFA Championship distance of the World? The major races in Europe(King George and Arc) are 2400m, as is the Japan Cup. In fact virtually all the major turf races are 2400m, BC Turf and the one in Dubai as well. Only Australia and Hong Kong have their major WFA turf race over 2000m. The BC Classic and World Cup are 2000m but they are dirt races and the difference is quite significant. The classic distance of 2400m has always been seen by traditionalists as the ultimate test of the thoroughbred, does that mean Freemason should be our highest rated horse?
You're a brave man offering 50/1 about a near impossibility, Lonhro will almost certainly be retired to stud after next season. What was your purpose in raising that point? Did it make you feel like a big man?
No offence intended Muirfield but anyone who confuses you with Robbie needs their head read.
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