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Author: iglesia Timestamp:- 12/3/2012 10:25:04 PM Subject: Sunline v Atlantic Jewel v Frankel
Message: At the outset, let me say that I have been very impressed with Atlantic Jewel and I can see why she has received such a high rating (128). In fact, on the basis that one kilo equals one length, I am quite suprised that she is rated so far below Frankel (143), whose rating suggests that he would defeat her by 6-3/4 lengths if they were ever to meet.
To the end of the spring, Atlantic Jewel - undefeated in five starts, including a Group One win against her own age and kind - measures up fairly well against Sunline - undefeated in seven starts, including a Group One win against her own age. However, it does surprise me that going onto win two Doncaster Handicaps, two Cox Plates, a Hong Kong Mile, three Australian Horse of the Year Awards, and four in New Zealand has only added one pound to Sunline's ranking.
Is this not further evidence that there are simply too many champions shoehorned into a very narrow band in the Australian rankings, and that the horses from this region are very much under-rated, relative to those in Europe?
Author: iglesia Timestamp:- 16/3/2012 7:47:17 PM Subject: Re: Sunline v Atlantic Jewel v Frankel
Message: Lister - The reason I mentioned the Doncaster is because that is the race that Atlantic Jewel has been nominated for; and was a race that Sunline contested at the same age. How hard is that to understand?
The reason I made the comment "The longer you hang around, the more defeats you will rack up, the more your rating will suffer" is because, if you look through the ratings, so many of the highly rated horses were lightly-raced, and so many of the champions who raced year-in, year-out (and did some phenomenal things) wind up with ratings in the 120s.
As I indicated in my previous post, I don't understand how winning the Thousand Guineas - which in turn has led to a Doncaster weight of 52 kilos or 2.5 kilos under weight-for-age - can be equated to winning a Doncaster with more than weight-for-age. Somehow, the difference in the weights of seven pounds is washed away.
There are numerous similar examples. It is not just Super Impose (the modern day weight-carrying record holder in the Epsom and Doncaster Handicaps). It is also Northerly (modern day weight-carrying record holder in the Caulfield Cup). Makybe Diva (modern day weight-carrying record holder in the Melbourne Cup). Sunline (for a mare, in the Doncaster Handicap). None of these horses have gotten out of the 120s.
Yet, Weekend Hussler - a lightly-raced three-year-old - was given 130 - even though his connections almost died of shock when he received 57 kilos in the Doncaster and refused to run him!
Author: Rex Timestamp:- 15/3/2012 6:30:16 AM Subject: Re: Sunline v Atlantic Jewel v Frankel
Message: Yes Patsy Sunline did occasional put in a below parr run- do you thing Frankel never would if he travelled as much and race as much as Sunline?
Once again you have totally missed a very valid point.
Most European champions are wrapped in cotton wool. This allows then to peak practically every time they go around.
Author: geelong63 Timestamp:- 14/3/2012 9:29:56 PM Subject: Re: Sunline v Atlantic Jewel v Frankel
Message: This might help to partly explain the complexity in the TF ratings system. 'Post-processing' is part if the equation, which seems entirely reasonable in some circumstances. BC has gone up a pound without raising a sweat.
"Timeform has raised Black Caviar's rating from 135 to 136 following the success of Hay List (now rated 132) under top weight in Saturday's Newmarket Handicap at Flemington....
Black Caviar had beaten Hay List by one and three-quarter lengths in the Lightning Stakes on the same course in February and has come out comfortably better than her rival each time they have met.
Timeform's Australian handicapper Gary Crispe said: "the strength of Black Caviar's form continues to be underlined, not least by the subsequent efforts of those she has beaten. She has been a minimum of 4 lb better than Hay List each time they have met, and it seemed correct to raise her slightly following the gelding's excellent Newmarket Handicap success."
Author: camel56 Timestamp:- 14/3/2012 6:50:47 PM Subject: Re: Sunline v Atlantic Jewel v Frankel
Message: Hanging around too long negatively affects a horses TF rating? Possibly the most clueless statement I've read. Looking at the author it's no surprise though.
That said the comment about the inconsistency of the ratings is more than valid IMO. There certainly does see to be some bizarre peak ratings floating about. One that immediately comes to mind is Whobegotyou. How he only rates 1pound lower than Lonhro is anyone's guess.
Author: Poindexter Timestamp:- 14/3/2012 3:39:45 PM Subject: Re: Sunline v Atlantic Jewel v Frankel
Message: The uneducated on here I understand
But how many times must the Same information be placed on here until it "Sinks In'
The great horses from the Past that raced here, may not have been World Beaters but by Hell, they raced, and Often, in all conditions, over varying distances, in varying classes, taking on all challengers
Author: CountChivas Timestamp:- 13/3/2012 11:20:24 PM Subject: Re: Sunline v Atlantic Jewel v Frankel
Message:
Never mind Sunline and Atlantic Jewel, I'd like to know how Frankel achieved a higher Timeform rating (143) than the great Mill Reef (141). Compare their careers.
Frankel: 9 starts - 9 wins - 5 Group 1s: Dewhurst Stakes - 2 1/4 lengths 2000 Guineas - 6 lengths St James Palace Stakes - 3/4 length Sussex Stakes - 5 lengths Queen Elizabeth II Stakes - 4 lengths
Mill Reef: 14 starts - 12 wins - 2 seconds - 7 Group 1s: Dewhurst Stakes - 4 lengths Epsom Derby - 2 lengths Eclipse Stakes - 4 lengths KG & QE Stakes - 6 lengths Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe - 3 lengths Prix Ganay - 10 lengths Coronation Cup - neck.
Mill Reef was found to be suffering the effects of a virus when a narrow winner at his final racetrack appearance, the Coronation Cup. He broke down on the training tracks when being prepared for a second shot at the Arc.
Mill Reef only tasted defeat twice, once as a two year to the brilliant My Swallow who won 7 from 7 at two and the other to Brigadier Gerard (144) who is second only to Sea Bird (145) on Timeform ratings.
Author: iglesia Timestamp:- 13/3/2012 11:05:10 PM Subject: Re: Sunline v Atlantic Jewel v Frankel
Message: Rex - It seems entirely possible to me that if Sunline had been campaigned in "European style" - short preparations, only ever racing over the most suitable distances (eg. 1,400 to 1,600 metres), and with some give in the ground, Sunline's record could have been anything; certainly, she would have been retired long before Northerly came along and gave her any bother. The funny thing is, it seems that the more you do the lower your rating. The longer you hang around, the more defeats you will rack up, the more your rating will suffer.
It's not just Sunline in that boat. Look at Super Impose. Poor bugger hung around long enough to have 74 starts and, despite winning a Doncaster Handicap with 59.5 kilos, winds up with a rating of 128 - equal to a Thousand Guineas winner, who, if it went around in the Doncaster, would carry 52 kilos!
Adjusting for weight-for-age, Super Impose carried half-a-kilo more than the mark for a six-year-old gelding, whereas Atlantic Jewel's weight is 2.5 kilos below the weight-for-age mark for a three-year-old filly. By my calculations, therefore, Super Impose should be rated at least seven pounds above Atlantic Jewel, yet his "peak" has somehow been discounted because he hung around too long.
Author: Pinkline Jones Timestamp:- 13/3/2012 10:41:46 PM Subject: Re: Sunline v Atlantic Jewel v Frankel
Message: Pasty,
Jim and Tonic beat the great Sunline twice, once over 2000m and once past 1600m. And if you knew anything about great horses you would know that Sunline was stretched past 1600m despite her MV proweds -turning course. I know that Sunline at her peak would prove a nightmare to Frankel and J & T if they ventured into HER optimum range. Twit.
Author: Rex Timestamp:- 13/3/2012 6:46:54 PM Subject: Re: Sunline v Atlantic Jewel v Frankel
Message: But for the life of me I cannot see Frankel having 48 starts in 4 different countries and winning 32 of them.
Nor for the life of me can I see Frankel racing up until he is a 7yo.
Nor for the life of me could I see Frankel; having 11 starts in one preparation (the amount of starts Sunline had in the preps when beaten by J&S).
Nor for the life of me could I see Frankel tried over trips ranging from 1100m to 2040m.
But what I can see is a champion racehorse who will never leave the shores of his own country, will have 14 careers starts and be retired to stud having only ever gone over 3 different distances all on home turf. But fair play to the Europeans, it is far easier to have a horse peak every start with this sort of career than one as demanding, challenging and heroic as Sunlines.
Could I see Frankel being beaten if he had 48 starts in 4 different countries and had one campaign where he had more starts than he has already had in two campaigns? Yes without a shadow of a doubt.
Author: iglesia Timestamp:- 13/3/2012 1:46:21 PM Subject: Re: Sunline v Atlantic Jewel v Frankel
Message: MD - In case the point wasn't obvious (clearly, it wasn't!), I explained that to date the careers of Atlantic Jewel and Sunline have been reasonably similar; one bolted in with the Thousand Guineas, the other bolted in with the Flight Stakes. Personally, I would rate Sunline's Flight Stakes win as being about as impressive as Atlantic Jewel's Thousand Guineas win. In both cases, in fact, the runners-up (Camarena - Queensland Derby; Mosheen - Australian Guineas) went on to do good things.
The thing is, though, if you are talking about a horse's "peak", then surely that "peak" is more likely to come in a major, open company race (such as the Doncaster or the Cox Plate), where the horse is being pushed by the best available opposition, rather than coming eased-up against other three-year-old fillies.
It seems odd, therefore, that in winning a Thousand Guineas a horse would produce a performance that was good enough to win a Cox Plate or a Doncaster, yet that is what the rating appears to suggest (remembering that Sunline's "peak" of 129 was enough to take her to victory in both races). Of course, the thing that is immediately incongruous about that is that, rather than go for the Cox Plate, Atlantic Jewel went for a kill in the Wakeful. This suggests to me that - at the time - she wasn't operating at the level required to win a Cox Plate.
P.S. Can't wait to see Frankel thrash So You Think by six lengths every time they meet to confirm the rankings
P.P.S. Kapcher - suggest you print off the postings of Geelong63 and co. for fertiliser
Author: MD Timestamp:- 13/3/2012 11:30:24 AM Subject: Re: Sunline v Atlantic Jewel v Frankel
Message: Iglesia, what it does provide evidence of is your lack of understanding of the ratings. Frankel's ridiculous rating aside, the TF rating of a horse is for their PEAK performance, not an assessment of their overall career. Therefore, your agrument should be whether Sunline's best performance was better than AJ's to date.
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