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Author: catweazle Timestamp:- 23/3/2004 3:24:57 PM Subject: Re: Special Harmony - BMW
Message: Anyone with a half decent 3YO would have to give strong consideration to running in The BMW. The honour roll in recent years contains such 3YO luminaries as Curata Storm (fresh from a provincial maiden), Kaaptive Edition, Heroicity and Stony Bay.
None of these horses could measure up against their own in the Derby (most finished closer to last) but were able to win The BMW, such are the advantages the 3YO's get at WFA this time of year.
Considering the above list, if you have a 3YO who can run out 2400, you won't get a better chance at a $2mill race than The BMW.
Author: Insomniac Timestamp:- 23/3/2004 1:25:27 PM Subject: Re: Special Harmony - BMW
Message: A 2.5 million dollar race and she only has to beat handicappers at WFA with a postage stamp on her back. Please it is a 1.5 million dollar gift to the connections of Special Harmony. There is only 1 danger, David Halls mare, so I say Run it!
Author: Cohagen Timestamp:- 23/3/2004 12:46:30 PM Subject: Re: Special Harmony - BMW
Message: Surely they can not be serious about running her in the BMW. She has the oaks and derby at her mercy and the derby is the equivalent tot he BMW in prizemoney anyway so I can't see the sense in it. I see some price assessors already have her at $2.50 for the BMW but it is big unders in my view when she would start a similar price in the Derby if she were guaranteed of running in it.
Surely the sensible pathway would be to tackle the arrowfield, take out the derby (or oaks) and then set her for a WFA campaign in the big races in the spring in Melbourne when she is more mature and ready for some solid tests under pressure against the best.
Message: I reckon she'd beat them all home - with the possible exception of Makybe Diva. You had to love her run in the Ranvet... up on the pace and stuck to her job well in the straight. If that race were another 400m she simply outslugs them and, with the possible exception of SH, it's the same horses again on the same track. I doubt SH will run it frankly. Would rather see her in the Derby than the BMW.
Author: robbie Timestamp:- 23/3/2004 12:20:55 PM Subject: Re: Special Harmony - BMW
Message: It all comes down to the question: does she REALLY stay?
If she does then clearly she will be very hard to beat with the huge weight pull and she is undoubtedly classy.
If she isn't a GENUINE stayer (which I tend to lean towards) then she could well be in for a real hiding. Both Makybe Diva and Mummify are genuine 2400m horses who will primed for the day. This is their race. I have no doubt that she would have donkeylicked them in the ranvet but a 2400m race is another story. If the consensus is that she doesn't genuinely stay then stick to the classics (even the derby) because you can get away without being able to stay in those races simply by being the best horse.
Author: OliverFan Timestamp:- 23/3/2004 12:04:57 PM Subject: Re: Special Harmony - BMW
Message: If she wins it she is a freak.
She has never raced against older horses and to do it for the first time in a race with the Caulfield Cup winner, Melbourne Cup winner, Dual Group 1 winner along with possibly the VRC derby winner and a host of other high quality race horses will be amazing.
However, I have a feeling she would start huge unders and with all of the above not in her favour i would bet against her. She would make mummify atleast 5-1 and i would be more than happy to take it.
Message: I'd bet against her in open age or or open 3YO races though I'd love to see her take on more than the 3YO fillies. Taking on the best stayers at WFA is certainly admirable but they won't do it - just trying to feed the PR machine and raise their profile.
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