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I love your posts, but not enough to go through them again!
My recollection was that with Northerly's demise and with your own question marks over Lonhro's ability to handle the valley, you suggested that 20/1 KTF was good value (yes, you're correct, you didn't actually tip him). You did however put doubts on Lonhro though, but now you're asking "who will beat him" and that he is value at 3/1?
Anyway, you want me to get off the fence and make some predictions - well, how about Lonhro to have a disappointing Spring, Gai Waterhouse to train the Caulfield Cup winner and to also go damn close in the Cox Plate with Grand Armee (i'd be more confident of the latter if she put on a different jockey!)...and don't drop off KTF. His return last week was great given the pattern of racing. He is readily available at 50/1 in the Cox Plate.
I would have to agree with you. Private Steers run was a good one but you can hardly compare beating a 7 yr old nag Strabane over 1100 to beating Lonhro & Defier at WFA over 2040.
I think she will struggle big time in a race such as the Cox Plate. For what its worth I think Fouardee should have won on the weekend with clear running.. But anyway..
And also to answer your question about who will beat Lonhro? I think on a good track Defier can knock him off. Well maybe, i wouldn't want to put my money where my mouth is though. I would want to wait and see how defier goes over the coming weeks.
One thing i hope for is that Hawkes doesn't give him a lung buster in the Yalumba like last year. Lonhro ran the race of his life to beat Sunline and i believe that was his undoing so close to the Cox Plate. But in saying that he came back and won the Mackinnon a few weeks later. I hope he is on the fresh side for the plate and then he will be damn hard to stop.
Message: I wouldn't be dismissing Private Steer getting 2040 on the basis of her breeding. Although most Danehill Dancers are sprinter/milers, she is out of a Semipalatinsk mare and they stay all day.
The last 2 well credentialled 4YO mares that many dismissed in the Cox on the basis of distance queries were Dane Ripper and Sunline. Enough said.
Private Steer reminds me very much of Dane Ripper - who also won the Stradbroke as a 3YO filly, going on to win the Cox the following spring.
The fact that she takes a while to wind up is not necessarily a bad thing either. At the Valley, jockeys can sit back and take off at the 600, with the cambering allowing for sustained runs out wide. Many Cox winners have done this - although you need plenty of pace on and a good ride to pull it off.
PS would not be my first choice for the Cox, I would presently have her at around the 4th or 5th pick, but I have not seen anything that leads me to dismiss her at this stage.
She was a good chance before the run on Saturday, when she did all you could ask of her for mine she is one of few genuine chances who appear to have come back healthy and on top of her game (question marks currently against Defier, Helenus, Magical Miss, Fields Of Omagh - doesn't leave a whole lot left).
Author: Pedro Timestamp:- 3/9/2003 6:15:26 PM Subject: Re: Private Sensational
Message: There is only one difference between Dane Ripper winning the Cox Plate and Private Steer possibly winning and that is Dane Ripper was 20:1 with Oliver on board trained by Bart and had a sensational Stradbroke win that year - where is Bart anyway - I need some real cash this spring. Private Steer will probably pay 5:1 if you are lucky.
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