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Author: Khaptingly Timestamp:- 11/4/2012 7:23:35 AM Subject: Re: mosse or newitt the noose
Message: WS, not only don't you know that race times are slower on heavier tracks, not only don't you know what double a dividend is, but clearly you don't know about horses. In some posts you say fields are worse than years ago, then in others you disagree with yourself. Clearly you are dumb.
And to mention some of those horses above as meaning depth for a Doncaster means you are not a follower of form. If you are you have it wrong. Please don't bet for your sake.
Author: kidlat Timestamp:- 11/4/2012 6:45:32 PM Subject: Re: mosse or newitt the noose
I think that can be at least partly explained by the fact that Manighar is having his first Autumn preparation in Australia with Moody. Races over a distance are far weaker in the Autumn than the Spring, a gap which seems to be widening.
Take Manighar's very good MC fifth for example: of the four horses that beat him, two have gone home, one to the spelling paddock and the less said about Americain the better. Incidentally, in the MC Manighar also finished ahead of Niwot whilst conceding weight, a horse he has finished 2 and 3 lengths ahead of at WFA in his last two starts.
Manighar is a good horse who has undoubtedly been well handled by Moody but he has also been the beneficiary of Lucas Cranach going amiss, the slaughter of Americain and the woeful state of our own horses in this category.
The ratings may prove me wrong but I'm not convinced his performances this prep have been significantly better than his MC run last year.
Author: iglesia Timestamp:- 11/4/2012 7:44:57 PM Subject: Re: mosse or newitt the noose
Message: Kidlat - I agree with you that Rangirangdoo and Shoot Out are probably at their best over a mile but they are still useful over the extra distance and, in my opinion, Manighar remains very underrated. Moreover, given that the 2011 Caulfield Cup winner Southern Speed was runner-up in the Australian Cup and 2010 Melbourne Cup winner Americain was runner-up in the BMW, I am a something of a loss as to how Manighar's success is due to "a distinct drop in depth from the Spring to the Autumn for middle distance/staying races".
I think Manighar's defeats in the 2010 and 2011 editions of the spring Cups were, in some cases, probably better performances than they may appear on face value. In some cases, he didn't have the best of luck, and he is probably at his best on top of the ground and has had conditions to suit during the autumn. I would also argue that his tactical speed has been used to good effect in these small fields.
I have also seen footage of Manighar's overseas races, and in the 2010 Prix Kergorlay Americain only beats him by about a long head. I just don't think the difference in quality between the two horses was ever quite as great as some seem to think, and, as a result, Moody has been able to have considerable success with him.
Author: glencoe Timestamp:- 12/4/2012 7:23:26 AM Subject: Re: mosse or newitt the noose
Message: When are you people going to stop arguing and start backing winners? If you bothered paying for information then you might get a clue as to how the game is set up. Otherwise it's all opinion. Does Manighar not being a world class horse increase or decrease his winning chances?
And as for his "improvement", he is a lightly made horse compared to Americain. Every time Cumani brought him here he was at his absolute peak and had to travel 12000 kms. He didn't have the constitution for it, and Cumani said so, often.
Author: iglesia Timestamp:- 12/4/2012 2:22:29 PM Subject: Re: mosse or newitt the noose
Message: Agree 100%, Glencoe. In fact, it astounds me that rather than wanting to back horses like Mosheen and Manighar, who have won six Group One races between them this autumn, all people want to do is tell you that Lucas Cranach and Atlantic Jewel (who were both in the paddock while the Group Ones in question were being run) are better horses.
Author: kidlat Timestamp:- 12/4/2012 8:08:29 PM Subject: Re: mosse or newitt the noose
Message: I'm not sure if you're referring to me Iglesia, but in no way did I suggest Manighar wasn't a good horse. Rather, that he was a good horse before Mooody got him. And that he took advantage of some very thin opposition.
That would make two very good reasons TO back him.
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