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Message: Cat- I wouldn't be rushing to back a backmarker in the Plate, since the Strath-Ayr went in it's grown to favour leaders in my opinion-
1995-Octagonal came from near the tail(12th) but took off very early making a long run. 1996-Saintly was 6th early but was right on the hammer on the other 3 before the 400m mark. Filante was just beaten in the slow lane after settling third and hitting the front over 400m out. 1997- Was 6th early and 5th at the 400m and got a lovely run right up the fence. 1998- M & P leads all the way 1999- Sunline leads all the way 2000- Sunline is on the lead all the way 2001- Northerly is one out one back never further back than third or fourth. 2002- Northerly settles 2nd.
Only one horse has come from further back than 6th since the Strath Ayr was put in, Ambulance would have to change his style a bit to get that close in the run.
Message: JR, fair point but I don't know if I'd like to be seeing her burning turf with Regimental Gal et al over 1100 and 1200 a month or two before Caulfield and Flemington.
Message: Bell, no saturation coverage but certainly in NSW she gets a newspaper mention everytime she runs as 'hitting the line hard', and 'looked a huge prospect for the future spring races' which is fine I guess except she never wins. I would rather back a horse with real form than one that apparently 'hits the line hard'.
ps. she'll probably win the fillies double now I've said this.
Message: I wouldn't be too put off by a horse who settles back in the field for the Cox. The pace will be on, and plenty of backmarkers have won the Cox. Over the last 10 years, Super Impose, Dane Ripper, Almaraad, Northerly (first win), Octagonal and Saintly all came from a fair way back.
Unless there is a freak like Sunline in the race, the horse you want to be on at the 400 is the one widest out and charging into the race.
The crucial thing is to have a jockey who knows the valley and knows to start bringing the horse into the race 'at the school'. If Ambulance had Gauci on him in the Cox I would have no concern about him getting back early on.
Message: In my last post I mentioned that I thought Dress Code and Snip Attack would be taking off around the final corner with an unassailable lead-- I was actually thinking of Happy Strike instead of Dress Code. Happy Strike with gate 2 should get the perfect trail on Snip Attack, barrier 5, and possibly Ra Sun, wide out in 12, pushing forward. I think that with even luck, Happy Strike should win.
Message: In my last post I mentioned that I thought Dress Code and Snip Attack would be taking off around the final corner with an unassailable lead-- I was actually thinking of Happy Strike instead of Dress Code. Happy Strike with gate 2 should get the perfect trail on Snip Attack, barrier 5, and possibly Ra Sun, wide out in 12, pushing forward. I think that with even luck, Happy Strike should win.
Author: Pedro Timestamp:- 11/9/2003 11:42:46 AM Subject: Re: HYPE FREE THREAD
Message: This is a great thread I backed Ambulance in Brisbane when he won at a great price also had a couple each way on Adolecence last week. These are both Hawkes horses who had a lot going for them prior to their wins and paid real value. Do the work, forget the hype, and you will get value even if the trainer tends to hype their horses.
Message: I agree JR, she started very short in NSW for the Ascot Vale. She has very good form but none of it is winning form. The poster boy for hype free horses so far this Spring has to be Scaredee Cat in my opinion, that will most likely change now though.
Author: Grandma Dawn Timestamp:- 11/9/2003 9:08:38 AM Subject: Re: HYPE FREE THREAD
Message: On form Happy Strike should go close in the CS Hayes. Dead heated with Scardee Cat last start and he won last week. If the Ascot Vale are better southern 3yo then these are surely the second stringers (or those being prepared for longer).
Author: dark horse Timestamp:- 11/9/2003 8:15:53 AM Subject: Re: HYPE FREE THREAD
Message: I said some time ago in a spring predictions that i think a 3yo will win the Cox Plate. Not sure if Ambulance is the one given his racing style. (still backed him though!)There are a few other 3yos out there who will get to 2040 nicely, with a weak Cox Plate likely would not be surprised if a few trainers used it as a derby lead up.
Message: In answer to my question about Grand Lodge's at the Valley, Adolescence has won there as a 3yo and Periphery had her only win there.
Ariante has been poorly ridden his last two starts, firstly Beasley had him at the tail of the field(in a six horse, slow run race) and timed his run too late which probably cost him victory. Then he got caught wide in a race with a decent tempo before still winning easily. The form around him is strong with Domine going well all winter and winning a Listed last start while My Tally bolted in last Saturday. The biggest question is the distance as he's never run over anything near 2000m and before this prep 1400m looked his limit. He has the right trainer though as Gai specializes in winning these early Spring middle distance races with horses that have never looked like getting the trip(Gamesman, Abeel Hostess, etc).
Author: JR Timestamp:- 11/9/2003 7:56:43 AM Subject: Re: HYPE FREE THREAD
Message: I think Dorky is bordering on a hype horse - what has she ever won of any significance to get the amount of press she gets?? Compare her to Dilly Dally who is racing with good exposed form and looks progressive over further distances and gets no press whatsoever.
Message: The two best horses nominated in the hayes are happy strike and dorky. apart from them the field does look weak.
I agree with viscount in that I seriously doubt a horse like Ambulance who races off the pace will be suited to MV. I think the Derby is more his go.
q: Has anyone been watching Ariante (KT Stakes) closely and if so what do think about this horse? Only has 54kgs vs HH's 58.5kgs.
Theo marks - have done some ratings on this race and there is not much between defier, grand armee and private steer so will be watching only unless the mkt offers something out of the ordinary.
Message: Doubt she'll run, agree with sparky the following week's race looks a better option unless they've decided she wont stay and will be kept to sprints. Hawkes also has two other horses entered(Syrinx and Youth) who'll probably run.
I don't think Hawkes has many quality fillies this spring(Dorky is the obvious standout), the other main one is Legally Bay but I don't think she's going South. Syrinx is probably the next best and a bit average, we'll know more this Saturday though. He's got colts coming from everywhere though and going all over the place.
Doubt she'd handle anyway and Ambulance looks even less likely(has a Grand Lodge horse ever won at the Valley?) as everything I've seen from him suggests he wants open spaces at tracks like Flemington, Randwick and Eagle Farm.
Message: Sparky, I agree. I have been spruiking Dorky since the start of the Spring (she's almost the perfect anti-hype horse!). I liked the way she finished off the Ascot Vale alot but I'm non-plussed as to why they would run her on Saturday at MV... unless Hawkes is looking at the 1000 Guineas, AAMI Vase, Oaks path?
Strasbourg Caulfield Cup at $25 with Ambulance in the Cox at $40 = $5000
Along with another bet on Ambulance at $40 to go with the bet at $60 from a few weeks back. Leaving aside the L horse, Australiasian WFA racing is as weak as I've ever seen it. If Hawkes takes Ambulance to the Cox he'll be a big chance by default. Plenty of his likely rivals are out of form or unsuited by the course/distance. Hopefully most of the Euros will stay away and he'll be up against the worst field since 1985.
Message: I would think Dorky is a near certainty against the mostly B & C graders entered in the CS Hayes Stakes on Saturday--if the race was run at Flemington. I am worried that with a big field of 14, she could easily get caught behind straglers while Dress Code and Snip Attack, who race on the pace, sprint clear around the corner and establish an unassailable lead. The main reason that I think this is the fact that she had a hard run last sat, and I would expect she would lose a bit of early tactical speed, but would be very strong at the end of her race. I wouldn't be surprised if she skips Saturday's race for the following Sunday at Caulfield, where there is a Set Weights and Penalties race for fillies only, worth 150k as compared to 100k this Sat, and over 1400m instead of 1200m. But maybe the Hawkes's have another filly set for that--they have that many! Anyway, my impression of Dorky is that she is looking for more distance, so be wary if she runs on sat.
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