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Author: gladys Timestamp:- 8/6/2012 8:22:02 AM Subject: The Price is not Right
Message: I have been looking at the market for Black Caviar and the $1.50 is just way unders.
She is coming out of an Australian winter in to a Northern summer, has travelled half way around the World in a compression suit, lost approximately 30 kilograms in weight and now in unfamiliar surroundings with equine jet lag.
I know the forum know-it-alls like Pinhead, Lister and Tufnel will all get on here if she wins, but I reckon she is a great lay at $1.50.
I am not knocking the horse, just the price. This will get Pinhead worked up, he is still crowing about my laying of Samaready. In that case, 5/4 was only a good price after she had won.
In any event, I will be laying her big time. If she wins, good on her, but not at that ridiculous price.
Author: maccamax Timestamp:- 17/6/2012 4:36:11 PM Subject: Re: The Price is not Right
Message: I don't care what horse it is [ Ajax Beaten at 1/40 ] an anti post of $1.30 weeks before the race is unders if there is any questions re , .. fitness, new surroundings , handling track conditions , past 5 Y/o having travelled , seasonal problems . Remember Tulloch, Todman , Vain , Manikato , Kingston Town , Luskin Star .. and hundreds of others all beaten shorties. We are all screaming for her and need a win before those bluddy Poms belt our Bums at the Olympics. Can you imagine Patsy Fagan having a paroxythmal dysrythmia to his cerebral electrical impulses if BC gets beaten. Can't even think about it.
Author: gladys Timestamp:- 17/6/2012 3:41:56 PM Subject: Re: The Price is not Right
Message: Yes it can be Iglesia. If it doesn't get out, no worries, I will still hold the lay as I think it is way unders. This is not a matter ofg getting her out of her stall and taking her to a local Melbourne raceway or transporting her interstate. This is really tough to do. My old dad used to love laying horses coming a distance to race on a track for the first time. At $1.31 the damage is not great if I am wrong.
Author: iglesia Timestamp:- 17/6/2012 11:31:48 AM Subject: Re: The Price is not Right
Message: I think you are probably finding, Gladys, that predicting the prices at which horses might start is even more difficult than predicting who might win, and, to date, your predicted price drift is yet to eventuate
Author: gladys Timestamp:- 17/6/2012 10:42:45 AM Subject: Re: The Price is not Right
Message: Yes Macca, there is one. Betfair close their antepost market on 21st June 2012 at 10am. I think it is suspended before that awaiting acceptances. After acceptances they then open the pre post market. Anyway, that is what the site details. I see she is now in to $1.31, ridiculous odds in an antepost market, given the weather forecast.
Author: nigeltufnel Timestamp:- 15/6/2012 6:55:50 PM Subject: Re: The Price is not Right
Message: Unfunny toilet jokes [second time too]. Glad bag has officially run of material, folks - and what a class act she is. Those midday Benny Hill re-runs sure ain't a fountain of comedy gems any more, are they Darl?
Author: nigeltufnel Timestamp:- 14/6/2012 9:22:42 PM Subject: Re: The Price is not Right
Message: Go easy on poor Glad bag. She's still working out how much of the kids playlunch money she can risk on finding something to beat Black Caviar.
Author: gladys Timestamp:- 14/6/2012 1:25:30 PM Subject: Re: The Price is not Right
Message: The antepost market moves in and out too. The antepost market is what we are presently betting in to. On raceday, the prepost market will commence. That also moves in and out. I didn't realise that was so confusing. Sorry about that.
Author: iglesia Timestamp:- 13/6/2012 6:50:55 PM Subject: Re: The Price is not Right
Message: Perhaps you need to work on how you word things, Gladys, because it was far from clear that your comment that she should be at least 5/4 is ONLY a reference to the all-in market; afterall, you state "I have no doubt she will get out further", which suggests you are talking about future prices, too
Author: gladys Timestamp:- 13/6/2012 2:15:36 PM Subject: Re: The Price is not Right
Message: It is an antepost market. If she is scratched, guess what happens to the bet! The prepost market has not yet opened. that is why the correct price is at least 5/4.
Author: iglesia Timestamp:- 13/6/2012 1:31:17 PM Subject: Re: The Price is not Right
Message: "She should be 5/4 at the very least" - If that is the case, do you believe that:
A. There is a 56% chance that she will have travelled so poorly as to be no chance of producing her best Australian form, and, that being the case, neither Peter Moody nor anyone else looking after her will be able to diagnose this and scratch her?
OR
B. There is a 56% chance that the English horses are better than her, and, that being the case, it won't matter if she produces her best form?
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