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I beleive i had an argument with you and one of your other "friends" (he knows who he is) in the chatroom and while you say beadman's ride was good and he cut corners blah blah blah, On friday night you both argued that even if all the breaks went his way he wouldn't be good enough to win.
You pair stick with those canterbury times LOL Come hime in 37 LOL 35.12 he came home in yesterday boys. Thanks for the overs.
Message: Well done Oli, you wanted me to admit I was wrong, and so here goes. Niello was very good, I'm not writing off Elvis in the Derby yet though.
I don't think sticking to the rail did Niello any disservice at all. In fact I think it helped him. He didn't cover an inch of ground that he didn't have to. Bounced out from the number 2 gate, sat back in the last couple smoking his pipe and then got the split when the leaders fanned out around the turn. He then rolled well off the fence into the better going in the last 200m or so. A copybook ride. Beadman said after that he didn't think the inside was as bad as people were making out and the fact that the second horse took the same path up the rails gives credence to this point.
Elvis on the other hand, came across from gate seven, working reasonably hard to get a position and sat in the first 4 but was pulling for the first half of the race. He was the widest runner on the turn (say 10 horses off the fence) and didn't have much zip going to the line. It was a dour effort. Vasil is backing him up in the BMW, so we'll see how he goes there.
I don't think the fence was as bad as last week. The track manager admitted he over-watered last week.
But Beadman had the guts to buck the "herd mentality" and cut the corner while the others went via Parramatta Road. (He had stayed close to the paint on Alizes and broke Bint Marscay's race record, so he knew it wasn't a "write off" zone closer to the rail).
Niello was just too good for the Mexicans.
I suspect that Starcraft would have made it interesting.
But you've got the cash - so its all academic.
As you would well know, Ollie is one of only a handful of hoops smart enough to watch the replays instead of sleeping.
He stuck to the same course as Beadman on Niello on True Glo and got the chockies.
Message: Forget Elvstroem already!!! No chance in the Derby. They should put him in the BMW as he might have a chance at the weight scale. Triple crown for Niello? I'm not convinced yet but only Grand Zulu out of today's field has a chance of turning the tables.
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