Saturday, 1 November 2008: Sportingbet Australia's Michael Sullivan provides Racing and Sports with an exclusive bookmaker's view of today's Derby Day program at Flemington.
Juveniles kick off the Derby Day program at Flemington on Saturday with trainers, jockeys and punters always keen to see if the speed bias is on the rails or the grandstand side of the straight course.
Punters normally like to launch into the bookies favourite first up but that has been made more challenging following the important scratchings of odds on pop Noesis and the Sydney winner Movie.
The race is now a raffle with Our Joan Of Arc expected to be the favourite over Seduced. Zaffaan is also a good chance and was well backed with Sportingbet on Friday.
In race two the money is expected to come for Caymans ($3.30) and Dr Doutes ($3.80) but not enough to get bookies sweating at this early stage of the day.
Race three looks more competitive and Sportingbet Australia is happy to lay the favourites.
Light Vision ($3.80) has had a very long prep and showed signs of tapering off in the Geelong Cup with Sportingbet keen to take him on.
Similarly, Largo Lad ($3.80) has been very disappointing and Sportingbet is of the opinion that the publicised change of jockey is unlikely to make a great difference.
Moatize ($4.20) is looking good for Bart Cummings but has only won one race so he looks unders at his current quotel and with Newport ($6) a scratching the Sportingbet view is it could a good chance for some rougher hopes.
The Longines Wakeful Stakes will be an open affair and smart punters normally step into one at odds in these fillies races. The money trail in the Wakeful is always a great pointer and if that horse arrives it will be a nasty result for bookies.
The Coolmore Stud Stakes is a different story as Sportingbet has been laying Northern Meteor for an absolute fortune.
The
Gai Waterhouse 3YO has been blitzing on the track and the more punters hear about his dominant trial at Flemington during the week, the more money is being bet on him. Sportingbet has already taken one bet of $100 000 at $2.10 and expects several more similar sized bets at the current $1.90 price.
Fist Of Fury ($10) and Wilander ($7) are the bookies best chances of an upset. John O'Shea's Fist Of Fury is unbeaten in Sydney and looks a real chance here despite the jump in class. The K McEvoy/Wilander partnership is also a show, coming off a last start win in the Schillaci at weight for age.
The Group One Mackinnon Stakes could be the best betting race of the day.
Princess Coup ($3.80) should get plenty of interest as punters are blaming the ride more than the horse in her disappointing Cox Plate run but Sportingbet is happy to take on the Kiwi again.
Theseo ($6.50) was also well backed in the Cox Plate and his run was better than fifth place suggests. If he can get out in front then he is a real chance of emulating stable mate Desert War's victory in this race when they couldn't run him down.
Red Ruler ($7) is also a strong chance here and one we hope punters avoid as his Caulfield Cup run was terrific and it seems he has been set for this race.
We give Littorio ($5.50) and Sirmione ($6) a lot less chance and will be hoping to lay them. Sirmione loves Flemington but he doesn't look good at all at the moment while Littorio will be hitting the line hard in a Melbourne Cup trial but the 2000m distance will be too short at this stage of his campaign.
There has been consistent big money on Our Smoking Joe. One Joe fan has had $15 000 by $5000 moving the price from $21 to $18 with a wet weather forecast perhaps the key to the support for the noted wet tracker.
Similar to Northern Meteor, Whobegotyou will be a strip out for Sportingbet Australia in the AAMI Victoria Derby.
The Mark Kavanagh superstar was way too good for his opposition in the AAMI Vase last week and the $1.5 million Derby doesn't look any tougher. In our all in betting market we took a bet of $30 000 at $2.25 before the AAMI Vase and then $50 000 at $1.70 after his win.
The odds are now $1.60 and we are happy to take him on at that price as the 2500m distance is still a question mark in our favour.
Having said that, we're not sold on Pre Eminence ($9), Larry Never Late ($12) and Buffet ($13) but the Sportingbet trading office will still be cheering them home.
The Myer Classic should see a lot of action, particularly if punters are flush with funds thanks to Northern Meteor and Whobegotyou.
Forensics ($3.60) was terribly unlucky last start and is the class runner suited at set weights. However, she could be a risk in Melbourne and is worth taking on at those odds.
Mimi Lebrock ($6.50) is also a risk coming out of gate 16 with the mile distance a real query. Similarly, we'll be laying Gallant Tess ($6.50) as she has had a long prep and is normally in her best form when fresh.
Tan Tat De Lago is our upset hope and will shorten significantly if the rain comes as forecast. The mare is flying at the moment and loves the wet.
The Seppelt Salinger Stakes could be value to favourite backers.
Sunburnt Land ($4.20) is obviously the one to beat after winning his last two starts but the step up in class and weight means Sportingbet will take him on.
Hot Danish ($4.40) also looks hard to beat as she will relish the quick tempo up front and the Flemington straight should suit. Any luck in the final 200m and she'll be hard to hold out.
Fritz's Princess ($9) had a good win first up but we doubt she'll be able to match the favourites and the same can be said for Swick who continues to have eye catching runs without winning ($11). Danny O'Brien's Valedictum ($41) hit the line better than any horse in the Toorak and could be the one to give the bookies a big result.
The final race of the day always attracts plenty of business as punters get their last fix. With a 20-horse field it is a raffle so with a bit of luck the result can round out a successful day for the bookies.
However, the favourite has had a pretty good record of hitting the line in the last in Melbourne in recent weeks and if it happens again it will make a nasty day nastier or take the cream off a good day for Sportingbet Australia.
THE SUMMARY
Bookies Good Day = Whobegotyou and Northern Meteor both getting rolled with plenty of other favourites stumbling as well.
Bookies Break Even = Either Whobegotyou or Northern Meteor losing as well as several favourites.
Bookies Bad Day = Sunburnt Land, Forensics, Northern Meteor and Whobegotyou all taking the prize.
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