Friday, 23 October 2009One of the major factors we look at when assessing the Cox Plate each year is the tight turning Moonee Valley track.
Final Ratings Screen
Right Click on worksheet -> Select Open in New Window for larger version.'The Valley' is a specialists track more so then any other course in the country with a horses record at the track an important factor to consider when handicapping any race there.
A look through the Cox Plate field for this Saturday and three gallopers in particular stand out on the basis of their records at Moonee Valley.
El Segundo 
,
Zipping and
Whobegotyou .
El Segundo won this race two years ago after going down by the narrowest of margins the year before.
He has won at the track on four occasions and with a couple of strong placings to go with it he certainly can be labeled a track specialist.
The downside for him is that his form this preparation has flattened out.
After a cracker first up his last two runs have returned a rating of 53.5kgs.
That's well short of his best but perhaps his favoured course can bring about some improvement. I've allowed a couple of kilos.
Zipping has chalked up a couple of wins here, the best being his Moonee Valley Gold Cup win back in 2006.
A more recent pointer to his ability at the track was his strong second in this race last year and he comes off a nearly identical preparation this time around.
His strong finishing run in the Turnbull last start returned a rating of 57.5kgs, just a kilo shy of the figure he ran here last year, with the form being backed up by Viewed winning last weeks Caulfield Cup.
Expect him to improve that kilo today to match his rating from last year.
Whobegotyou is four from four at the track so there can be no doubting he has a liking for the place.
He won the AAMI Vase on this day last year and beat several of today's rivals here just last month in the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes.
Despite winning two from three at 2000m his best ratings have come at the mile and it might be this terrific record at the track that helps to offset any queries at the distance.
His form has peaked at 61kgs at his last few starts and at his favoured arena he should be able to hold that peak today.
Road to Rock has a win and a placing from three starts here and is clearly better suited here than on the heavy ground he faced last start in the Epsom. These preferable conditions can see him bounce back to his George Main winning rating of 57.5kgs today.
Vision and Power is the other course winner in the field having won here back in 2005 as a juvenile.
He also ran well in a Stutt Stakes here at three and although it was some time ago now it is still a reasonable pointer to him handling the course.
He is coming off a career best effort in the Yalumba and he can hold form once he has found it.
Heart of Dreams had his very first race start here, running on strongly to finish third behind Whobegotyou of all horses.
Heart of Dreams hasn't returned to Moonee Valley since but he has had several return bouts with the winner. The score currently 3-2 to Whobegotyou.
Ran to a career high 61.5kgs when winning the Underwood two starts back before running slightly below that mark last start when getting too far back.
He, like his old sparring partner Whobegotyou, is some query at a genuine 2000m but from the good draw today he should get every chance to run it out and return to his peak rating.
The rest of the field, Sir Slick zero from two aside, are yet to see Moonee Valley under race conditions and so there is some element of guesswork involved as to how they will handle it.
Speed Gifted come here after his impressive last start win in the Metropolitan.
Big step up from winning a handicap on the limit weight to winning the Cox Plate at weight-for-age however, and his race looks to be in ten days time.
Out of the Toorak comes
Black Piranha and
Rock Kingdom both having run terrific races there without luck.
Both have run to 56.5kgs this preparation and both are peaked at 58.5kgs last preparation. Very little separating these two!
Happy to allow slight improvement to the pair of them who with luck are capable of running big races.
The three-year-olds
Manhattan Rain and
So You Think come out of the Guineas and add a bit of interest.
Both would have to improve sharply to be winning here but we certainly have seen it before.
One that did improve sharply last start was
Scenic Shot who battled on very strongly in the Turnbull despite a wide run.
The effort returned a career best rating of 60kgs, topping his terrific efforts up in Brisbane.
He should get a softer run today forward of midfield and if he can hold that last start rating he will prove mighty hard to get past.
Whobegotyou $4.20
Heart of Dreams $5.50
Scenic Shot $5.50
Road to Rock $8.50
Vision and Power $8.50
Zipping $17.00
So of our six top chances four are winners at the track and another placed from his only attempt.
The bookmakers agree with top pick Whobegotyou who is currently a point under what we are looking for. $3.20 the best after as low as $2.72 was matched on Betfair early in the piece.
Heart of Dreams is currently right around where we have him whilst Scenic Shot represents good each-way value at $15.00.
Road to Rock and Vision and Power are also at value prices at this stage with Road to Rock in particular looking a good 'roughie' at the $31.00 available.
Best of luck and happy punting
Aspro.
