The Mail for Saturday

Thursday, 10 November 2011

Grahame Begg has Triple Six ready for improvement Photo by Racing and Sports

ROSEHILL - tips by Chris Scholtz

SR 2: (5) COLORADO CLAIRE  - This John O'Shea trained filly gets her first opportunity in metropolitan company after impressive provincial wins at Goulburn and Kembla Grange. She has taken control of both races over 1200m and 1400m from the start and should have conditions very much in her favour if the Rosehill track continues to favour leaders which is likely with the rail out 8 metres and a master front running rider in Jim Cassidy aboard.

SR 4: (10) TRIPLE SIX  - Expect considerable improvement from this Grahame Begg trained mare on her last start effort over 1500m at Rosehill when she was right out of luck behind Savannah's Choice after an excellent strong finishing win over 1300m on the Kensington track. She was badly held up for clear running at the critical stage of her last start and there was plenty of merit in her effort to be beaten only two lengths. Meets the winner on a massive 5kg better terms with the advantage of a 3kg allowance and that's enough to give her an excellent chance at good odds against a similar field.

SR 8: (7) FAWKNER  - Top Victorian stable has not missed the chance to place this promising gelding in a suitable restricted event in Sydney. He was never threatened over 1800m at Flemington on Oaks Day when he recorded his fourth win from six starts and it's not surprising the Williams/Hickmott team appreciate how he is well placed under the Sydney benchmark conditions. They are leaving nothing to chance by bringing Steven King from Melbourne for the ride due to his previous success on the 4yo.

ONES TO AVOID

SR 5: (9) STRATANA  - Just lasted for game 1200m win at Rosehill and has a big chance to repeat with a claim giving him a handy 3kg drop in weight. However this race has more depth and prepared to gamble that he will be softened up by early pace giving others the chance to run him down.

Folding Gear looks a value runner Photo by Racing and Sports

SANDOWN - tips by Wayne Bristow

MR 1: (1) ANDRE ROO HOO  - So often with the early season two year old races, it is those who have had starts that really take a hold. Last week's Maribyrnong Stks winner benefitted from it when he ran down this very horse. But it was an excellent run at Flemington by the son of Written Tycoon and all he would need to do was improve enough with the experience to go mighty close here. Unless one of the debutants is one out of the box, happy to stay with this one.

MR 3: (2) OLYMPIC WIN  - He has had a well rounded preparation for this two mile race. Once out to the staying trips, he has run well including a top run in the Bendigo Cup. A vital factor is that he meets his conqueror from Flemington 2.5kg better for defeat in the Long Black. Also recall he was so brave in the Adelaide Cup staying on into fourth. This is nowhere near as strong a race last year either.

MR 8: (9) FOLDING GEAR  - Found a value runner here. Many of those near the top of the weights have had long preparations and many grand finals. This 4yo has only had one run and came out of a strong race at Bendigo. He was well supported that day and consider that he has had two runs over this very specialised distance for two wins - one of them here and the other in the G2 Autumn Classic. He's well placed on the limit.

ONES TO AVOID

MR 8: (1) GINGA DUDE  - Many are going to land on the kiwi after top runs in the Crystal Mile and Mackinnon Stks. However he has to carry a big weight giving good horses plenty and for a horse who likes to race on speed, he will have plenty of company. He's worth taking on.

EAGLE FARM - tips by Wayne Bristow

BR 1: (2) READY TO RIP  - Had a paid barrier trial to win at the Sunshine Coast under 62kg on Melbourne Cup day. He has run some very good races at group level but perhaps his best is over this very trip. He won't lead but might just camp on them and with a cheap run might have the dash.

BR 7: (10) AUDACIOUS SPIRIT  - The important thing to consider here is that the 4yo goes from 57.5kg to 53.5kg. He likes to race on speed and this is a good gate to show that pace early and sit on the leader. His best is when in that controlling position as was seen in the Royal Sovereign at Randwick. Looks well placed here.

ONES TO AVOID

BR 5: (1) PLAYTIME  - Is a dual 2yo group placed runner however that was six months ago. Both runs this time in have been fair and with big weights. Nothing has changed here and an apprentice from a wide barrier in a big field and a competitive race is not something that is easy to stomach.

MORPHETTVILLE PARKS - tips by Jason Hickson

AR 3: (1) OBSIDIAN DRAGON  - Speedy galloper with a great record here. Ideally placed with the claim and in the small field will take catching given she might just lead easily. The gate helps that too.

AR 5: (1) BUDRIGUEZ  - Has raced in far tougher grade in Melbourne last two but looks very well placed back in this grade. Would only need to be half right off those runs to win this on his ear.

ONES TO AVOID

AR 7: (6) SIMPLY BOOGIE  - Beaten as short priced favourite last time and although looks a leading contender here meets a field full of winning chances and likely to be skinny odds again.