Sunday, 15 April 2012
: The feature event on the Kranji card today is the tenth race, with the S$125K Open mile on the turf short course D having scope for some proven runners to find form again.
It may look like the equal topweight in Flying Fulton just has to go around to get the money but on turf at 59kg over a mile nothing could be further from the truth.
Flying Fulton has not won on the turf since the G3 Committee's Prize mile in September last year under 54kg and the fourth finisher in the race less than two lengths away was Arowana Dot Com
Today we see Arowana Dot Com
get 9kg from Flying Fulton and that is more than enough to not only turn the tables but flip them and remove the legs for a complete revarnishing.
I really do think Arowana Dot Com
can win this and the four-year-old by Hussonet last start, at what was his second ever mile outing, finished a sound fifth on the polytrack and carried 58kg like the winner Flying Fulton.
He was beaten just over three lengths but boxed on like he was close to delivering a Dot Com dividend again.
The gelding loves the turf and his record of eight starts on it for four wins and a placing hides two fourth finishes (both at G3).
His only miss on the turf was a tenth last October at G3 behind Better Be The One in the Saas Fee Stakes, which was a rather hot field.
Samurai Phoenix ran in the Committee's Prize too and with 4kg less was five lengths behind Flying Fulton and he too gets a 9kg pull here so is 5kg better situated.
Flying Fulton was a hot favourite last start but got blown away by a Cliff Brown runner in New Rose Wood that had a 5kg pull, so can we see the same stable play spoiler again with Samurai Phoenix?
The last time it won a race was a Class Three mile on the turf in July last year and the gelding was third up, with his next outing producing a close second in an open handicap.
It is safe to assume Samurai Phoenix performs best third and fourth up.
Keep Away was beaten five and a half lengths carrying 5kg more than Flying Fulton in the Committee's Prize and here he will receive from that runner 6.5kg.
I can honestly say the weight swing to Keep Away of 11.5kg is one of the biggest in living memory, so do not leave out the Hideyuki Takaoka trained galloper.
He went too bad to be true last start for a ten-time turf winner and for the purposes of today do not forget he is a nine-time mile victor.
Speed Baby has to carry the same impost of 59kg today that Flying Fulton does and that may be the only query but do not doubt the ability of the four-year-old.
The dual G1 winner is a deadest turfy and adores the mile plus importantly he is unbeaten third up in Singapore, which is his state today.
To add the cream on top his two G1 wins have been those third up successes.
I liked his last start running on effort for eighth in that bunched finish where Flax prevailed and then would not leave the stage through sheer exhaustion but provided much theatre.
As an aside Flax now has a legion of new fans that recognized the little fella gives of his all each and every race start.
The horse that proves timing is everything in El Dorado goes good fresh up but he operates on a Longines clock when it comes to G1, as his three wins in the Singapore Gold Cup have shown.
It is hard to dismiss a three-time G1 winner that is not topweight today and remember Takaoka has the possible pace forcer in Keep Away, so he has two chances in the feature.
This leaves the sprinter Happy Everybody that looks almost certain to lead, so it comes down to can he get cheap enough sectionals to manage a first try at the mile.
Last start he fought back well at 1400m after drifting outwards in the run home.
It may well be pointless trying to restrain him in attempt to run out the mile and with no weight on the back they should let him run along.
In a small field the first horse to look for is the leader, as they control the pace and the illusion of others riders thinking they are not too far away on settling and no need to move yet.
Flying Fulton may from the inside draw look to get off the fence early and sit outside the pace then drop it on the leader before the home turn as his size and strength is his advantage.
He runs the risk of towing something to victory but that is why Opie Bosson is aboard and not the speed map bettors.
This is a very open race and no runner is without a chance, so the seven starters will ensure a tactical tussle.
Two stables have a pair of runners in the race and they will have a say on tempo, with Steve Burridge having the likely leader Happy Everybody and the one that likes to unleash on a solid clip in Speed Baby.
Takaoka has the Gold Cup guru in El Dorado that likes to wind up and run home plus the one that could make a surprise appearance on the pace in Keep Away.
The more I analyse this race the more Arowana Dot Com
appeals and of course the class act Speed Baby has that wicked third up big race record.
Enjoy the tenth race on the card.