Thursday, 24 May 2012:
Black Piranha will line up in his fourth successive Doomben 10,000 on Saturday and trainer Con Karakatsanis reckons he is due for a change of luck.
While punters have snubbed their noses at the eight-year-old, the rank outsider at $101 with TAB Sportsbet, history suggests they are inflated odds.
Regardless of Black Piranha's leadup form, the Doomben 10,000 (1350m) is a race he traditionally performs well in with his worst result a fourth to Beaded last year.
"It's the race I look for to see how he's going in his preparation," Karakatsanis said.
"For the last three years he's run really well and he's gone on and won two Stradbrokes from that.
"It's a good pointer, but in saying that there's still a lot of improvement from this run."
Karakatsanis has trained Black Piranha for the bulk of his career but last spring he was transferred to Anthony Freedman in Melbourne.
He didn't settle in and disappointed at his only run there so he was sent back to Karakatsanis.
At his only start since the gelding was 11th to Sea Siren in the BTC Cup (1200m) on May 12 when he got back in a race dominated by on-pace runners and was beaten more than nine lengths.
Karakatsanis also used the BTC Cup as a winter launching pad 12 months ago when Black Piranha was beaten more than seven lengths by Black Caviar.
The former jockey can see similarities in the two efforts and says his gelding was simply outsprinted last start.
"When they're running 1.08.1 and running home in 33 (seconds) flat, it makes it a little hard," Karakatsanis said.
"He was probably 80 per cent fit, out of match practice. When they went that sort of time they were always going to leave him for dead down the back.
"The run was a lot similar to last year and he improved (from it) and I thought he was pretty stiff not to win the 10,000 last year.
"It's probably one race that has eluded him with no luck."
Rhys McLeod will ride Black Piranha for the first time on Saturday after Michael Walker lost his appeal against a careless riding suspension.
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