Friday, 10 August 2012
: The feature race on the all polytrack card at Kranji tonight is over 1700m and the outcome is dependent entirely on the race pace.
The seventh event is a S$75K Class Three and a natural backrunner in Wonder
can finish like a clap of thunder to win but needs no walking up front at any stage if possible.
Bruce Marsh trains Wonder
and the seven-year-old may have won just three races but has placed eight times too and only had twenty-three starts.
The gelding has finished fourth in his races four times too so is rarely far away at the finish for trifecta and first-four bettors.
One of his wins came on the poly and over the month of August albeit in 2009 at the mile. Wonder
was away from the track due to injury and setback for vast periods and for example between April in 2010 until January this year had a total of three races.
He has won in Class Three before and it came at 2000m so no concerns about the trip this evening.
Forgetting how to win affects many horses and with a racing pattern of dropping back and running on then you will find more trouble and traffic than most in a career.
He can however pelt home in the right tempo race and after a 2kg claim here will carry 52kg, which I believe will help his chances?
If you consider that in his last four poly starts the gelding has placed twice and finished fourth once plus failed the other time then that is not so bad.
Analyse the form deeper and Wonder
has placed or finished fourth on the poly from 1600m to 1800m and even better twice has seen the winner end up running in the G1 Emirates Singapore Derby.
Two starts ago Wonder
finished a strong fourth on the all weather in a Class Three mile behind Dujardin and that runner ran home well for fifth in the Derby.
Six starts ago Wonder
finished third in a Kranji Stakes C over 1800m on the poly behind Lightning Thief and it since has run in the Triple Crown for four-year-olds.
Lightning Thief was sixth in the G2 Steward’s Cup (1400m) and sixth in the G1 Singapore Guineas (1600m) plus a respectable last start eighth in the Derby.
I have noted Wonder
this year be unlucky so many times that the broken record is getting a real workout.
Four starts ago in a Benchmark 74 on turf saw Wonder
finish a very luckless seventh and be beaten just two and a half lengths.
The winner was Deep Pockets and since it has finished a super fourth in the G1 Singapore Guineas and a very good albeit distant second in the G1 Singapore Derby.
This is serious form and in a field of eight tonight where not one of the runners is without a chance, I can see Wonder
swamping them to score.
If you isolate his record in races run at 1700m or further it comes to five starts for a win, three placings and a fifth of five (he bled in this race and was stood down for three months).
In such a competitive field on paper for Race Seven it would not surprise if there was some action early and maybe some pressure midrace or at least across the top and therefore far enough out to matter. Forgiven
missed last start in the Derby but his twelfth was far from being disgraced as the winner Chase Me gapped them and to show he was the man beat the older horses two weeks later.
The poly record of Forgiven is four wins and as many placings from sixteen starts on the all weather and also a couple of fourths.
Laurie Laxon trains the gelding and Oscar Chavez will ride for the second time (he rode it into a close second on the poly over March of 2011).
Joao Moreira has ridden Forgiven to win twice and is usually the go too man for Laxon but not tonight, so Chavez back aboard is clearly the next available option.
Recent riders of Forgiven apart from Moreira include Grey Cheyne (John Of Arch), Alan Munro (Encosta Diablo) and Stephen Baster (Vaya Condios) but as you see in the brackets they all have a mount in the feature.
Forgiven after a freshen up since the Derby will be a trifecta chance at 55.5kg as the drop in horsepower to here is substantial.
Moreira, who will be Copenhagen bound after the meeting to ride in the Swedish Derby at Jagerso in Malmo, has taken the ride on the Cliff Brown trained Steadfast Warrior tonight.
The gelding has never won on the poly but Moreira has ridden it once before and the outcome was a close second on the turf behind Fatkid (a G2 and G3 winner since).
It is rare for Moreira not to win on a horse he rides either for the first or second time and his legion of backers on course know it and bet accordingly.
The last start easy win by Steadfast Warrior came on the turf over 2200m in a winnable race for him and interestingly third home was Wonder
(it carried 1.5kg more) beaten just over four lengths.
After a claim Wonder
at 52kg will get 2.5kg from Steadfast Warrior and since it has not won on the poly and he has, you have to give two ticks and advantage the Marsh runner with the 4kg swing.
John Of Arch is tough and loves the poly plus he keeps going sound races.
In his last three runs (all with Cheyne atop) the results have been a win plus a fourth and a fifth.
You almost always get a sight from John Of Arch and he fights hard the closing stages too so he is a trifecta chance for sure.
Two starts ago he finished fourth on the poly in a race the rival again tonight Forgiven ended up third and the key for their respective order of selection is in the weights.
John Of Arch carried 58kg like Forgiven and the latter was almost a length ahead at the line.
Tonight sees Forgiven get a 1.5kg pull and he should beat home that rival again all things being fair.
Vaya Condios has come solid for his new stable and the former Laxon prepared big horse has regular rider Stephen Baster atop.
Steve Burridge trains Vaya Condios and he is locked in at 46 wins apiece at the moment in the training premiership with Laxon.
Baster rode last start to win narrowly but well over the Laxon trained useful prospect Martin and the tidy Leticia Dragon prepared Grand Approach.
He is a big horse that can carry weight but in the same grade again has risen 2kg and that will not affect him a jot.
One year ago he finished third on the poly in Class Four and was beaten just under two lengths over the mile.
The winner was John Of Arch that had 2kg more and this evening we see Vaya Condios getting 3.5kg relief.
Vaya Condios has won twice more since as has John Of Arch (plus the actual win of the August race in 2011), so it all looks intriguing. Wonder
can win with one surge the run home but he needs the race to be run at least with comparable splits to unleash furiously and if they rumble then he stand by ready to collect.
A walk then sprint home will not help him but he still finds the line regardless so you at least get a run for your money either way.
Enjoy the feature race and keep a close eye on the tempo as it determines the possible worth of your wager.