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 Author: stich32
Timestamp:- 27/8/2011 12:26:54 PM
Subject: manawanui
Message:
How good can this horse be?
I was offered a share in this horse through my trainer Ron leemon, unfortunately didn't take a share...
Talk about pissed off !!!!
Dunno about you guys but I think this horse could be anything congratulations Ron , great horse for a great bloke and awesome trainer....
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 Author: quezacotl
Timestamp:- 1/9/2011 2:52:24 PM
Subject: Re: manawanui
Message:
Even fair track at Seymour today too...ROFL
Any further than 3 back and you have no chance...great for trainers who like giving their horse's "one" though.
Can't wait for Warwick Farms goat lane on Saturday...I'm already doing the form for leaders and barriers 1-4...should be a pearler...yeeeehaaaaaaw..!!
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Author: Steven80
Timestamp:- 1/9/2011 8:58:10 AM
Subject: Re: manawanui
Message:
Track looked even at Eagle farm yesterday Iglesia, not that you would have noticed.
Every winner 15 wide.
How was the fence there?
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Author: another_tipsta
Timestamp:- 31/8/2011 5:58:02 PM
Subject: Re: manawanui
Message:
I was not really taking sides, just saying when we know for example rail out by so and so and knowing horses barriers as well as in some cases racing styles of horses (leads, handy, swooper, loves/dislikes crowd or wide space) it could be possible to say in advance who is going to be (dis)advantaged.
Granted some things can only be figured out after race 1, 2 or 3 and yes by then there's a slim chance even if posted here it would see daylight here before the end of day of racing .
ps
Previously I suggested to Robert here some things on this forum could be made possible to appear immediately - you know how other web-sites have "VOTE" - CHOICE A, CHOICE b, CHOICE C
- having something like that here (what is bias today at MV? who will win Memsie?) would allow us to see WHO voted WHAT - immediately because the answers would be not random but pre-determined choices.
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 Author: geelong63
Timestamp:- 31/8/2011 1:58:11 PM
Subject: Re: manawanui
Message:
Good grief, does everything need in depth explanation? I think we've already determined that you either don't punt or watch many races Iglesia so I'm dismissive of most of your comments. You'd do better sticking to your anti-Kingston Town rubbish - it makes more sense. Another_Tipsta - if you don't make adjustments for track 'bias' when doing form or assessing runs then you will be missing a key factor imo. By track bias I don't mean that the trackman has presented an unfair surface (although that may unintentionally be the case), simply that observing results on a particular day may show for example that leaders couldn't win, or that nothing outside the first half dozen won all day, or that backmarkers were making little ground (and hence their runs could be forgiven). Some of these things can be put down to tempo, but not all. The only other explanations appear to be wind and uneven tracks - sometimes in combination with rail positions.
So, what precisely would be the point of trying to 'predict' bias? Unless you have access to good historical data (again, MV rail out 5m for example) then it is counter-productive in my view. Better off in most cases to do form on the basis of an even track, while being either prepared to change your bet, take a risk that your selection can overcome any 'bias' (by being ridden more forward for example), or not have a bet if early indications show your horse might be significantly disadvantaged.
Owners, trainers and jockeys all look for race tempo and possible 'track bias' when deciding tactics. If 'you' haven't noticed jockeys avoiding the rail at Flemington on some days, or Caulfield (good) being a leaders' track when the rail goes back into the true position after being out for a few weeks, then you aren't very observant. It's a simple fact of racing, and finding winners is hard enough without ignoring the obvious.
By the way, you might have noticed that Sydney trackmen have been giving penetrometer readings for a variety of distances and widths in recent times. Might be useful on occasions.
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 Author: iglesia
Timestamp:- 31/8/2011 1:15:32 PM
Subject: Re: manawanui
Message:
A horse can move to different parts of the track without losing "many lengths". Do some simple geometry to confirm this fact for yourself. If you have backed a horse whose jockey is too stupid to put the horse in a position to win, or, moreover, you have picked out a horse that is not good enough to put itself in a position to win, that is a problem with the way you are doing the form, not a problem with the grass, the wind, or whatever else you are imagining is supposedly giving one horse some sort of unpredictable advantage over another.
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Author: quezacotl
Timestamp:- 31/8/2011 10:10:32 AM
Subject: Re: manawanui
Message:
That is exactly the problem with bias Iggy...punters can do two days of firm from time of acceptances, then be too scared to bet in the first couple because have to wait to see how the track plays. No one knows what bias will show up from one day to the next...that is our biggest gripe..it can turn all your form upside down and any pre post bets can become redundant before the race even starts.
If you notice in the UK, a whole flat season, without a single rail moved..not one, horse's are racing on a fair surface every single track, every single day.
We live on a massive Island, 50 times the size of the UK, yet we have to have tight turning tonka tracks with moveablevrails to help bookies make even more money.
Dear Australian racing...
STOP MOVING THE BLOODY RAILS..!!
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Author: Steven80
Timestamp:- 31/8/2011 8:53:07 AM
Subject: Re: manawanui
Message:
Iglesia why don't you answer the question.
How is it that horses go to the outside fence . losing many lengths if the track is even and still win?
Its a 4 letter word, it is called BIAS.
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Author: iglesia
Timestamp:- 30/8/2011 10:20:24 PM
Subject: Re: manawanui
Message:
another_tipsta - I wouldn't hold your breath. The bias bandits never come out with pre-race predictions or anything of value. The "bias" they come up with is never anything more than an after-the-fact whinge.
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Author: another_tipsta
Timestamp:- 30/8/2011 3:27:16 PM
Subject: Re: manawanui
Message:
An interesting debate, how about on Friday night/Sat morning we see some predictions from you guys, based on (perceived) bias due to rail normal/out or lack thereof.
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Author: Steven80
Timestamp:- 30/8/2011 12:58:13 PM
Subject: Re: manawanui
Message:
Yes iglesia they are all ******** s the jockeys.
Tell me how many horses have won on the inside rail at the last 2 saturdays in Sydney? No bias on the inside at Warwick Farm? Nothing wins on the rail until the last at Rosehill after the rest of the track has become chopped up?
You think the horses coming down the outside fence on the Kensington track that give away lengths to get there and knock up winning are just plain lucky and the others in the quicksand on the rail are in ground that is no different?
Why did they have to doctor the Geelong synthetic track originally when every leader was winning, no bias there either i suppose.
Get you're eyes tested or you're head out of the sand.
Wish i was your bookie.
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Author: iglesia
Timestamp:- 30/8/2011 12:03:07 PM
Subject: Re: manawanui
Message:
As a wag once said, Steven, when I see a horse that looks like an umbrella I'll see the value of poking the turf with one!
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Author: geelong63
Timestamp:- 30/8/2011 11:05:47 AM
Subject: Re: manawanui
Message:
I could be wrong but something tells me you ran the same line in another thread a while back Iglesia. That moving a rail out (or in) can effect results/form and how races are run is obvious. MV last week was a good example, but there are plenty more. Stradbroke day comes to mind - only one horse was able to make ground down the outside all day from memory - not surprisingly it won it's next start. How often has Caulfield been a dynamite leaders track when the rail goes back to normal? Sometimes you can use that to your advantage to find a winner no doubt (Pinnacles being a recent example), on others punters are better off not betting - although many of us just can't resist on big race days.
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Author: Steven80
Timestamp:- 30/8/2011 10:54:55 AM
Subject: Re: manawanui
Message:
Iglesia if maybe you went to the races you will see every leading rider walking the track before the races, they just out there for a bit of sun are they?
They are riding on it every week and they are poking the ground, don't think they are looking for an underground bore.
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Author: iglesia
Timestamp:- 29/8/2011 10:50:58 PM
Subject: Re: manawanui
Message:
What on earth? How does moving a rail make the leader go faster relative to the other horses in the race? Moreover, if it's such a simple matter of finding this "bias" why is it that horses are still winning, as they have always done, at all sorts of prices, from all sorts of positions? If bias existed, I can't for the life of me understand why those who can find it aren't celebrating it, rather than complaining about it. But that's just the thing, isn't it? You always hear from them after the race that "you had to be on the rail" or "the rail was off". You never hear anyone own up to the fact that the thing they backed wouldn't have won with an ACME rocket strapped to its backside.
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Author: iglesia
Timestamp:- 29/8/2011 7:17:40 PM
Subject: Re: manawanui
Message:
Leaders have been winning since at least Phar Lap's time, and for probably a few hundred years before that, so, when, exactly did this "bias" supposedly develop?
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 Author: Bluey H
Timestamp:- 29/8/2011 10:33:00 AM
Subject: Re: manawanui
Message:
Ne'er mind old boy. You can still follow him.
I reckon he is champion in the making and he'll develop a cult following. A bit like that Melbourne sprinter in the 80s Campaign King.
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