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Forum - 2018 Melbourne Cup

2018 Melbourne Cup

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Original Blog Post:

Hey guys,

I know the Cup is a way off, but I like to keep my eye on the market to try and get some value.

How is it that a horse, that is only group 2 placed once, and only an open class winner, favourite for our "greatest race"?

I know the bookies normally sit at home giggling about punters betting this far out, but surely they are taking the piss...


 
Author: marbine
Subject: 2018 Melbourne Cup

Time: 10/7/2018 11:37:15 AM
 
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Author: Branded
Subject: Re: 2018 Melbourne Cup

Time: 30/8/2018 9:12:58 PM

Blog Reply:


Would love to see Aiden O’Brien bring Flag Of Honour for the Cup.I don’t know what the plans are but I really like this fellow.He is a young horse with a great future.Fingers crossed.

 
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Author: Ramses
Subject: Re: 2018 Melbourne Cup

Time: 28/8/2018 10:50:47 PM

Blog Reply:

P.S. Vengeur Masque returns Saturday in the Heatherlie Stakes. And in case anyone is curious, his name translates to Masked Avenger, could be an apt name for a horse who goes under the radar to win a race he missed out on contesting, by the barest margin, in two previous years ;

 
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Author: Ramses
Subject: Re: 2018 Melbourne Cup

Time: 28/8/2018 10:32:17 PM

Blog Reply:

Todman, reports are that connections of Muntahaa are now aiming for the cup. Mr Mars, just saw your post re Vengeur Masque. I've been keeping an eye on him since Todman tipped us into him in the Geelong Cup. Just missed out on last two cups, but with the wins in GC and Queen Elizabeth should hopefully get the weight that eliminate the need base his Spring campaign around getting into the big dance. Moroney still believes he would have run a good race if he made it last year. Apparently has come back bigger and stronger. Ticks a lot of boxes, and if (as Todman suggested on another thread) he has some good runs in the lead-up races, the $67 might not last. I'm hoping to jag my Epsom/CC/MC trebles - Lanciato ($41)/Night's Watch ($101) & Kings Dream ($6)/Vengeur Masque ($67).

 
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Author: Todman
Subject: Re: 2018 Melbourne Cup

Time: 28/8/2018 7:35:22 AM

Blog Reply:

I really like the effort displayed by the Ebor winner - Muntahaa - he won the race with ease. Not sure if the MC is a target though

 
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Author: changaboy
Subject: Re: 2018 Melbourne Cup

Time: 27/8/2018 6:48:58 PM

Blog Reply:

Charlie Appleby is bringing out a 3yo colt by the name CROSS COUNTER should be hard to beat if he gets a similar weight to REKINDLING.
I like backing horses early for Melbourne Cup i backed DEFOE early on this year before he won a couple of races in europe he was favorite for the English St Ledger last year,He went terrible in that race but i think he had enough.
28th Aug is first Noms

CROSS COUNTER $21 BET EASY
DEFOE          $101 LADBROKES

 
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Author: Branded
Subject: Re: 2018 Melbourne Cup

Time: 23/8/2018 8:41:26 AM

Blog Reply:


A friend of mine informs me the Noblesse Stakes was replaced by the Munster Oaks.

He told me the Leopardstown Noblesse Stakes is run each year at Leopardstown.

Maybe Rex can throw some light on this.

Sorry for getting off the track.

 
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Author: Branded
Subject: Re: 2018 Melbourne Cup

Time: 22/8/2018 1:54:15 PM

Blog Reply:


Looking back about 5 mares in Withholds pedigree is The champion filly Noblesse.She had 5 starts and never raced in the Country she was trained.

The Noblesse Stakes at Cork is raced every year in her honor.

 
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Author: jet
Subject: Re: 2018 Melbourne Cup

Time: 22/8/2018 12:04:49 PM

Blog Reply:

Jaameh has caught my attention

 
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Author: De Lago Dude
Subject: Re: 2018 Melbourne Cup

Time: 21/8/2018 8:05:47 PM

Blog Reply:

I like Magic Circle.

Many things can go wrong with overseas horses , due to travel and acclimatization,but this horse could be very good.

Currently - $19 or better
Cheers
DLD

 
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Author: brownie
Subject: Re: 2018 Melbourne Cup

Time: 17/7/2018 9:51:22 PM

Blog Reply:

Days of finding a Smokey are gone unfortunately mate, too much exposed form. Better to wait till we have some idea of the field IMHO,

 
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Author: mr mars
Subject: Re: 2018 Melbourne Cup

Time: 14/7/2018 10:59:20 AM

Blog Reply:



Hi all ,

I really like Venguer Masque for the 2018 Melbourne Cup.
Paul brought with this race in mind.
Mike , just has to keep him sound and it will be a good day if the Stable Plan's can actually come to Fruition on the day :).

Thanx.

 
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Author: Wilks
Subject: Re: 2018 Melbourne Cup

Time: 12/7/2018 10:15:36 AM

Blog Reply:

G'day Marbine.

I'm becoming more convinced that early betting on races is a mug's game.

Where a few years ago I might have entertained the odd punt before final fields are announced, I've seen too many occasions where the odds on offer are barely any improvement on what will be available on the day, and there is also another factor....

Thoroughbreds have a remarkable ability to go wrong, get injured, fail to "travel" and thus not acclimatise, etc etc. Even the best travelling stables have had instances of bad luck with injury etc.

These days my punt budget is too restricted to be taking that extra gamble on a horse actually making the field.

As an example of what formed my thinking, a few years ago, Weiry's French import, Puissance De Lune was made favourite for the following yera's Cup based on a slashing win in The Queen Elizabeth (I think) and comments made by G. Boss after that race.

He was put up 12 months out from the race at 25/1 for the next year's Cup. My instinct told me it should have been 25/1 just to make the field. History tells us he didn't get there. I'm buggered if I'm putting money in books' accounts for them to earn interest from, with the ever present risk the horse may not even run.

With regards your query on this year's market, I reckon the books often weight heavily on Japanese runners pre post, and the Tenno Sho is a bloody good race.

For me, though, I'll wait and see the field first. The Melbourne Cup usually is good value betting even on race day.

Good luck if you decide to back anything, hope it wins for you.

All the best.

 
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Author: Rex
Subject: Re: 2018 Melbourne Cup

Time: 10/7/2018 10:16:37 PM

Blog Reply:

I'd take the 20/1 Withhold for this years race, as barring injury I reckon its a free bet.

This horse has just won the Northumberland Plate over here first up since winning the Cesarewitch in October. These are both very good form pointers for the MC from a European perspective.

He's a lightly raced 5yo who has enough speed to grab a spot and runs out a strong 2 miles and should get in with a winnable weight.

The reason I say a bet to nothing is because unlike most European horses at this time of the year where you have to 2nd guess if they are going to Melbourne, the trainer, Roger Charlton (shrewd) has already declared he's going, and he certainly won't be 20/1 once he lands in Australia.

 
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Author: Hands N Heels
Subject: Re: 2018 Melbourne Cup

Time: 10/7/2018 8:01:12 PM

Blog Reply:

G'day Marbine

I too like to eke out some value well in advance but there doesn't seem to be many standouts this year.

In saying that, the way these bookies ignore clear news about unlikely runners gets my goat in pre-post markets. If they were offering insane odds I could understand that the punter is speculating on the 'unlikely' part however risky that is, but to have the horses on the 2nd and 4th lines of betting respectively is plain profiteering. Punters should not have to rummage around to find these kinds of articles, I happened across it (hopefully R&S will allow this URL).

https://www.racenet.com.au/news/melbourne-cup-unlikely-for-both-rekindling-and-johannes-vermeer-20180702

 
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Author: worker collective farmer
Subject: Re: 2018 Melbourne Cup

Time: 10/7/2018 7:52:22 PM

Blog Reply:

Marbine,

I'd dare say it's mainly because Chestnut Coat (the horse you refer to?) came 5th, carried 58kg and was beaten less than 2 lengths in the Tenno Sho over 3200m. If I'm not mistaken this is a huge race in Japan and on top of that Japanese stayers are now considered among the best in the world

 
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