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Timeform Review – 2016 Cox Plate

2016 Timeform ratings for Winx, Hugh Bowman and Chris Waller winning back to back Cox Plates.

Timeform Review – 2016 Cox Plate

Champion mare Winx broke a number of records with an astonishing victory in Saturday’s group one Cox Plate at Moonee Valley

Winx spreadeagles tjhe 2016 Cox Plate field
Winx spreadeagles tjhe 2016 Cox Plate field Picture:Racing and Sports

Not only did she become just the 10th horse since the Cox Plate was first run in 1922 to win the race back to back but importantly she joined the great Sunline Horseform as the only mares to have achieved the task in 94 years.

The only other mare to win the Cox Plate twice was Tranquil Star but her wins were separated by a year (1942 – 1944).


She also become the 16th horse to complete the Caulfield Stakes – Cox Plate double, the last was So You Think in 2010 and the first mare to take the double since Tranquil Star in 1942.

In terms of Australian racing, Winx took her winning sequence to 13 equalling Limerick and remains one win away from the iconic Phar Lap who posted 14 consecutive wins in the 1930’s. However Black Caviar’s unbeaten winning streak of 25 remains safe.

Starting at $1.70, Winx Horseform was one of the shortest priced winners of the race in history, only the mighty So You Think in 2010 starting shorter at $1.50 in the last 30 years but she has now wrested that tag away from Sunline as the shortest priced mare to win the race. She became the 13th winner to start odds on but still longer odds than Phar Lap who in 1931 scored at the prohibitive odds of $1.07.

The eight length winning margin by Winx (and it could have been 10 or more!) surpasses the previous record held jointly at seven lengths Dulcify (1979) and Sunline (2000).

In assessing the Timeform rating for the race, a number of factors were considered – overall race time, sectional split analysis, ratings profiles of runners going into the race, quality of the field itself compared to previous renewals and historical race standardisation.

Pre-race form profiles going into the race suggested a range of possible Timeform ratings of between 132 and 137 while timefigures suggested a value closer to 133.

The historical race standards covering the last five years of the race also came in with a value of 133 and the quality of this field considering such variables as average winning margin of the field in the last twelve months, number of group one winners in the last twelve months as a percentage of the field, field average winning percentages for the last twelve months when compared with other renewals also pointed to a value north of 132.

The dominance of the performance was outstanding, completely outclassing three last start group one winners of good quality renewals of those respective races. In addition there were collateral form lines to tie into the analysis.

The weight of evidence pointed to a Timeform rating of 133, up five pounds from her current 128 master rating, as the most probable merit of the win but to allow a “p” as an indicator that she is capable of better still.

Most of Winx’s lead up races generally result in a final 600m sprint which is sufficient to dispose of her rivals without ever having to resort to her untapped ability – Winx only allows racegoers to view that attribute on rare occasions.

It is clear from her lead up races that Winx only does enough to win – in short she just idles to the line and saves her peak performances for her “grand finals” such as the 2015 Epsom Handicap, 2015 Cox Plate, 2016 Doncaster Handicap and now 2016 Cox Plate. In each of those races she has gone to a new master Timeform rating.

It is hard not to agree with rider Hugh Bowman’s assessment that he has never reached the “bottom” of her ability, which is a scary statement considering her age and number of starts she has had. But in fairness, her real story began just 13 runs ago as her form prior to that was sound, but nothing outstanding.

With a Timeform rating of 133p, Winx joins champion European galloper Almanzor Horseform and Japanese galloper A Shin Hikari Horseform as the highest Timeform rated horses currently racing on turf anywhere in the world.

Of course if we include dirt horses like California Chrome Horseform (136) and Frosted Horseform (134) then she is still a few pounds below them.

In terms of Australian and New Zealand past Timeform champions, a 133 figures makes Winx the second highest rated mare in the last 50 years behind Black Caviar Horseform (136) and the equal of modern day champions like Might And Power Horseform and So You Think Horseform both also rated at 133.

On the global scene Black Caviar, Allez France and Habibti (all on 136) share the honour of being the highest rated filly or mare in the history of Timeform ratings that go back to 1948.

But there are several other world class champion mares that have been assessed by Timeform and Winx now joins that elite company.

Fourteen times group one winner Goldikova Horseform and winner of three group one Breeders Cup Mile races was also rated 133 while dual arc winner Treve Horseform reached a Timeform rating of 134 during her stellar career.

Other champion world class mares include unbeaten French Arc winner Zarkava Horseform (133), crack US mare Zenyatta Horseform (131) and Arc and King George winner Danedream Horseform (132).

Current plans are for Winx to aim for a third Cox Plate victory in 2017 and if Sunline can be used as a guide she must have an undeniable chance.

Sunline ran in four Cox Plates winning in 1999 and 2000 before going down narrowly in 2001 behind Northerly. She was fourth behind Northerly in 2002 at her final race track appearance.

Ends.

Racing And Sports



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103686
R9 MOONEE VALLEY 22 October 2016
William Hill Cox Plate 3U , 2040m
Race Synopsis: Champion mare Winx recorded her 13th successive win, her ninth Group One win and her second Cox Plate victory in a brilliant performance. She began well, settled in fifth place, one off the rails, following a solid pace. She moved up (wide) at the 800m, put pressure on her main rival (Hartnell), got the upper hand nearing the home turn and then raced away to score effortlessly by eight lengths. Hartnell settled back in third place, moved up well nearing the 800m, briefly got to the front at the 600m but was overpowered by Winx and he then kept battling on soundly for a distant second. Yankee Rose raced back in sixth place, was under riding from the 600m but kept responding gamely (wide out) to take third in an impressive effort by a three-year-old filly. The French-trained Vadamos was fourth early on, before going along the inner to take the lead at the 1400m. He then ran along at a solid tempo, setting up a clear lead mid-race before fighting on for fourth, albeit beaten 9.8 lengths. Awesome Rock was back in fifth place and kept battling on nicely to hold that position, beaten 11 lengths. Of the others, Lucia Valentina was well back in ninth place, on the rails, was under pressure at the 700m and then battled for (12 lengths) seventh while Black Heart Bart led early on and then chased the new leader (Vadamos) before making a move at the 800m. But he weakened shortly afterwards to finish (13 lengths) ninth.

FP
 
Horse
Age & Sex
Trainer
Jockey
WT
SP
 
1st  
8. WINX (AUS)
5yo Mare
CHRIS WALLER
HUGH BOWMAN
57.0
$1.80
 
STREET CRY (IRE) - VEGAS SHOWGIRL (NZ)
Magic Bloodstock Racing (Mgr: P G Tighe), R G Treweeke & Mrs D N Kepitis
Jan 13, 2013 Gold Coast Yearling Sale, Jerry's Plains, $230000, Magic Bloodstock, QLD
 
2nd  
3. HARTNELL (GB)
6yo Gelding
JOHN O'SHEA
JAMES MCDONALD
59.0
$5.00
 
AUTHORIZED (IRE) - DEBONNAIRE (GB)
Godolphin
3rd  
10. YANKEE ROSE (AUS)
3yo Filly
DAVID VANDYKE
DEAN YENDALL
47.5
$13.00
 
ALL AMERICAN (AUS) - CONDESAAR (AUS)
 S G Darby, M J Royal, Mrs S E Weigall, H C Sharpe, P G Davis, J Fowler, Mrs H E Sumner, M A Slack-Smith, A C Beckmann, W M Bell, Ms J E Falls, D G Penno, I F D Thacker, Ms C M McGee, R J Cooke, L Kotevski, J K Martin, J A Green, J D Porter & S K Todd
4th  6. VADAMOS (FR)
6yo H
A FABRE
MARK ZAHRA
59.0
$21.00
5th  7. AWESOME ROCK (AUS)
5yo H
Leon & Troy Corstens
STEPHEN BASTER
59.0
$101.00
6th  5. HAPPY CLAPPER (AUS)
6yo Gelding
PATRICK WEBSTER
BRENTON AVDULLA
59.0
$51.00
7th  9. LUCIA VALENTINA (NZ)
6yo Mare
KRIS LEES
KERRIN MCEVOY
57.0
$16.00
8th  4. HAURAKI (AUS)
5yo Gelding
JOHN O'SHEA
DWAYNE DUNN
59.0
$31.00
9th  2. BLACK HEART BART (AUS)
6yo Gelding
DARREN WEIR
BRAD RAWILLER
59.0
$15.00
10th  1. HAPPY TRAILS (AUS)
9yo Gelding
PAUL BESHARA
BEN MELHAM
59.0
$101.00


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