[close]

The Everest - Who Can Win It?

Timeform preview of The Everest at Randwick on October 14 and who can win it with Simon Dinopoulos.

The Everest - Who Can Win It?

The Everest is finally upon us and with the final field confirmed, who is most likely to scale the peak and who is likely to be left at base camp?

While it is the inaugural running of the Everest, a probable winning figure can be extrapolated from past renewals of both the Group 1 TJ Smith Stakes [1200m] and Group 1 Lightning Stakes [1000m] — the two highest rated sprint races in Australia.

In the last five years the average Timeform winning rating of both the TJ Smith Stakes and Lightning Stakes is 129 — world class standard.


Star sprinters Black Caviar Horseform and Lankan Rupee Horseform pull both averages up, however a figure of around 125 - 127 is expected to land the prize on October 14.

So who has the capacity to reach that mark?

Timeform Weight Adjusted Ratings

Chautauqua Horseform - 127

Vega Magic Horseform - 126

English Horseform - 125

Redzel Horseform - 124

She Will Reign Horseform - 123

Redkirk Warrior Horseform - 122+

Fell Swoop Horseform - 122

Clearly Innocent Horseform - 121

Houtzen Horseform - 120

Tulip Horseform - 117

Deploy Horseform - 116p

Brave Smash Horseform - 113

Chautauqua

Chautauqua
Chautauqua Picture:Racing and Sports

The great puzzle that is Chautauqua took another twist last start when he was unable to come into contention in the Premiere Stakes [1200m].

After his first up performance, the majority felt he was back better than ever, some bullish enough to suggest the Everest was already over.

Fast forward two weeks and all of a sudden Chautauqua Horseform "can't win" after finishing sixth behind In Her Time.

However, Chautauqua virtually mirrored what he did in The Shorts [1100m], his undoing being a less than ferocious tempo up front.

Chautauqua's main asset is sustained speed, he is rarely the fastest horse, which is often misunderstood with the "grey flash".

Of the 12 runners who faced the starter in the Premiere, Chautauqua returned the slowest top speed.

The trick here being Chautauqua can sustain his top speed for longer, that's what makes him the great sprinter that we all know and love.

Chautauqua's career best performances have come when a fast tempo has been set, that is the first half the race is run faster than the second half.

His sustained speed allows him to work home over the top of his rivals as while they are slowing down, he is slowing down slower, hence he appears to be flying late, when in truth he isn't going any faster, just sustaining speed.

Although only winning one of his last eight, he should get the race run to suit and with a master Timeform rating of 127, he remains one of the hardest to beat with CrownBet.

Vega Magic

Vega Magic
Vega Magic Picture:Racing and Sports

Put the writing on the wall first up before taking a good step forward in the Memsie Stakes [1400m] last start, returning a Timeform rating of 126.

A rating of 126 was a serious shot fired this early in the season - the mark having only been matched or bettered by Weekend Hussler Horseform (126) and So You Think Horseform (128) in the recent history of the Memsie.

Further highlighting the significance of the mark; there are only two horses currently in training with a higher rating to their name; Winx (134) and Chautauqua (127).

The drop back to 1200m will be no concern and he appears most likely to land in the sweet spot, just off the lead.

If able to replicate what he produced in the Memsie then he is sure to make his presence felt.

English

English
English Picture:Racing and Sports

Had excuses first up and illustrated she is right on track when finishing a narrow second in the Premiere Stakes [1200m] behind In Her Time.

Returned a faster last 600m (32.37 seconds) than Chautauqua and appeared to just peak on her run late — still managed to record the second fastest last 200m of the race.

Another who is likely to land in the sweet spot/appreciate the fast tempo and her career peak was achieved third up last preparation in the TJ Smith Stakes [1200m].

A return to that level of form sees her as a major player in the big dance.

Redzel

Redzel
Redzel Picture:Racing and Sports

Returned as good as ever in the Concorde Stakes [1000m] before bringing up his fourth straight win and a new career peak in the Group 2 The Shorts [1100m].

He once again erased claims that he is a wet-tracker and has certainly earned his chance to take on the big boys.

From his last seven starts, Redzel has won five, with only defeats (narrow) coming at the hands of English Horseform and Russian Revolution Horseform.

May lack the talent of some of his main rivals, however he is airborne and given his favourable racing pattern, he is sure to run well.

She Will Reign

She Will Reign
She Will Reign Picture:Racing and Sports

Debunked the 'Slipper Curse' first up in what was one of the most impressive wins you will see at Moonee Valley.

Under riding before the turn, She Will Reign Horseform appeared in trouble, before balancing up and surging to the line to score narrowly.

She Will Reign was rated 119 at two, and while she didn't have to prove herself any better than that to win the Moir, her closing speed points to her performance being better than the bare result by roughly a length.

She may not have raised her rating but it's an achievement to match such a lofty juvenile number at three, especially at the first time of asking.

She is the 'X' factor and just how good she is, only time will tell, though she certainly faces a baptism of fire on Saturday.

Redkirk Warrior

Redkirk Warrior
Redkirk Warrior Picture:Racing and Sports

Won a dawdling Group 1 Newmarket [1200m], a performance (30-1 SP) which up until last start remained an outlier.

Unable to showcase his talent on the wet tracks during Sydney's "big wet", Redkirk Warrior was back in a big way, making light work of his rivals in the Group 2 Bobby Lewis [1200m].

Trainer David Hayes has never been one to hide his high opinion of the Warrior and after last start, you can see why.

Although again suited by the slow tempo, he dropped his rivals in a few strides and displayed a turn of foot which is world class.

Can he produce such a performance off a fast tempo? That remains his biggest query, however given he is bred for stamina, it's hard to suggest he won't be able to.

Prior to coming to Australia, he won on debut over 2000m at Great Yarmouth, before sold and transferred to Hong Kong, where he went on start favourite in the 2015 Hong Kong Derby [2000m], finishing 11th.

It is crazy then to think just two years on he could be crowned one of the world's best sprinters - right?

With a Timeform rating of 122+, Redkirk Warrior will be given every opportunity to utilise that '+' in the Everest and he shapes as one of the major players.

Fell Swoop

Connections will be hoping and praying the early forecast is spot on with any rain about enhancing his chances.

Hasn't been disgraced in two runs back this time in, however he needs to improve sharply if he is to fight out the finish.

Fell Swoop Horseform has placed in the last two TJ Smith Stakes [1200m], form which leaves him with better than a flukes' hope.

In two high pressure sprints, Fell Swoop has been right there and given he faces a similar scenario on Saturday he cannot be underestimated.

Clearly Innocent

Spaced his rivals in the Kingsford Smith Cup [1300m] before very game with the big weight in the Stradbroke Handicap [1350m] prior to a break.

Ran up to a new career peak on both occasions and was one of the eye catchers first up when he didn't have a lot of room late in the Premiere Stakes [1200m].

Possesses a great record second up and will relish any rain about —the Kingsford Smith Cup was the first time he had struck a wet track and he clearly excelled.

One knock is his only career victories at <= 1200m have been at Scone and Mudgee.

Houtzen

One of three fillies engaged on Saturday and to be frank she only looks to be making up the numbers.

All things considered felt she ran well first up and while not dominant, she won well last start at Moonee Valley.

Problem is, Saturday is a completely different ball game and against these seasoned sprinters, she is expected to come up short.

Her only chance of success is to lead, however even still, she will be left a sitting shot.

Tulip

Much like Houtzen she is expected to come up well short.

She was only narrowly beaten first up, before being safely held behind Alizee in the Tea Rose Stakes [1400m].

Very few fillies have beaten the older horses (group races) at this time of year, (She Will Reign joined a short list) and expect that trend to continue here.

Deploy

The definition of "airborne" Deploy Horseform has won seven of his last nine starts since being gelded and has broken track records at his past two starts.

At his best when kept fresh, Deploy faces the acid test on Saturday and in truth has plenty to find on the bare form.

Although easily accounting for his rivals in the Theo Marks Stakes, he had his own way in front and will confront a completely different type of pressure on Saturday.

While he is the current track record holder at Randwick over 1200m, in doing so he only narrowly beat The Virginian and Burning Passion - what price would they be?

Never want to knock winning form, but it suggests he falls short on Saturday.

Brave Smash

Not a stable you like to take a set against, however he appears out of his depth on what we have seen to this point.

Was very good in Australian debut behind Vega Magic, however he had a very handy weight swing (6.5kg) and while winning second up, it's hard to suggest the form around Bons Away or Fast 'N' Rocking pumps up his tyres.

His form in Japan was sound though nothing to write home about and certainly wasn't Group 1 standard.

Gets the blinkers on for the first time on Saturday, which could spark improvement, though he needs to.

Everest - Top 4

1. Vega Magic

2. Chautauqua

3. English

4. Clearly Innocent

Racing And Sports




122245
R8 RANDWICK 14 October 2017
The Tab Everest , 1200m
Race Synopsis: Redzel was quickly away and Kerrin McEvoy then eased him to settled outside Houtzen as that filly drove through from her inside barrier (one) to lead. Redzel then travelled comfortably a quite a quick tempo (first 600m in 33.90) before dashing clear nearing the 200m. He then fought back strongly to score a strong win in a time of 1:08.36, which was 0.10 slower than In Her Time ran in taking out the consolation race, the Sydney Stakes (1200m). Favourite Vega Magic was eased from his wide barrier (ten), settled in eighth place (three wide with cover), was under pressure on straightening, responded from the 200m and then ran on well to take a good second. Brave Smash was eased from the start by Jamie Spencer, was ninth early on before improving along the rails to be seventh at the home turn. He got a split going to second at the 100m and then fought on well for a good third. It was also an excellent ride by Spencer. Chautauqua settled in last place in the 12-horse field, Brenton Avdulla stuck to the rails at the home turn, improved to eighth at the 200m and then came with a strong late run for an eye-catching (1.5 lengths) fourth. Tulip raced in tenth place, improved to fifth at the 200m after getting a good inside run at the turn and then held on well for (2.6 lengths) fifth. English was eased from her outside barrier (12), remained in second last place to the home turn and made good ground over the closing stages for (2.8 lengths) sixth, her difficult barrier proving costly.

FP
 
Horse
Age & Sex
Trainer
Jockey
WT
SP
 
1st  
3. REDZEL (AUS)
5yo Gelding
P & P SNOWDEN
KERRIN MCEVOY
58.5
$8.50
 
SNITZEL (AUS) - MILLRICH (AUS)
Triple Crown Synd (Mgr: C H Ward), Walfam No 2 (Mgr: B Walsh), Ten Players (Mgr: S J Fletcher), J N Allen, P Piras, V P Chau, T W Cheng, M R Waddington, Mrs A Gibson, Dr A Kuok, J W Medland, T Kocovski, Mrs P Di Marco, L Halloran, M E Hardwick, B D Playford, D Yates & A Savage
Jan 14, 2014 Gold Coast Yearling Sale, $120000, TRIPLE CROWN SYNDICATIONS, NSW
 
2nd  
2. VEGA MAGIC (AUS)
5yo Gelding
D & B HAYES & T DABERNIG
CRAIG WILLIAMS
58.5
$4.75
 
LOPE DE VEGA (IRE) - ADMIRABLE (AUS)
H W Daly, G E Daly
3rd  
8. BRAVE SMASH (JPN)
4yo H
DARREN WEIR
J P SPENCER
58.5
$21.00
 
TOSEN PHANTOM (JPN) - TOSEN SMASH (JPN)
 Australian Bloodstock, Mt Hallowell Stud, Power Thoroughbreds, G Kairouz, Carty Racing, Walker Racing, A Brogan, D Butcher, Platinum Breeding & Racing, Dr P Goel, D Canny, T Porter, T Ginnane, M Johnston, D O'Connor, B Shannon, Mrs K Davis, Mrs K Davis, Mrs K Cicciarelli, Brave Smash, A Bates
4th  1. CHAUTAUQUA (AUS)
7yo Gelding
MICHAEL & WAYNE & JOHN HAWKES
BRENTON AVDULLA
58.5
$6.00
5th  12. TULIP (AUS)
3yo Filly
D & B HAYES & T DABERNIG
TIM CLARK
51.0
$51.00
6th  9. ENGLISH (AUS)
5yo Mare
G WATERHOUSE & A BOTT
BLAKE SHINN
56.5
$9.00
7th  11. HOUTZEN (AUS)
3yo Filly
TOBY EDMONDS
J LLOYD
51.0
$17.00
8th  5. CLEARLY INNOCENT (AUS)
6yo Gelding
KRIS LEES
HUGH BOWMAN
58.5
$13.00
9th  6. DEPLOY (AUS)
5yo Gelding
GERALD RYAN
JOSH PARR
58.5
$16.00
10th  4. REDKIRK WARRIOR (GB)
6yo Gelding
D & B HAYES & T DABERNIG
REGAN BAYLISS
58.5
$11.00
11th  10. SHE WILL REIGN (AUS)
3yo Filly
GARY PORTELLI
COREY BROWN
51.0
$5.50
12th  7. FELL SWOOP (AUS)
6yo Gelding
MATTHEW DALE
TYE ANGLAND
58.5
$81.00


Latest Stories