2021 HISTORICAL MELBOURNE CUP PREVIEW - G1 3200m

Vow And Declare wins the 2019 Melbourne Cup

Australians don’t need much more than those three famous words (The Melbourne Cup) to get excited. Considered the most watched 200 seconds in Australia each year, this two mile handicap horse race means much more than an equine event. Let’s check out the last few editions of the First Tuesday in November.

PROFILING THE RACE

• There have been five multiple winners - Archer (1861+62), Peter Pan (1932+34), Rain Lover (1968+69), Think Big (1974-75) & Makybe Diva (2003+04+05).
• Eleven horses have done the Caulfield Cup/Melbourne Cup double - Poseidon (1906), The Trump (1937), Rivette (1939), Rising Fast (1954), Even Stevens (1962), Galilee (1966), Gurner’s Lane (1982), Let’s Elope (1991), Doriemus (1995), Might and Power (1997) & Ethereal (2001).

*Xhttps://resource11.racingandsports.com.au/Photos/photogallery/medium/2014/Trainer-A_WOHLER-87761-300x225.jpg;right;1;Andreas Wohler & Ryan Moore

• Of the last 27 winners, 13 have won their last start and 14 were defeated of which 7 were placed. Rekindling, Protectionist, Green Moon, Viewed, Efficient, Makybe Diva ’03 and Jezabeel, who was knocked down at Caulfield, were unplaced.
• Highest weight to win - Carbine 65.5kg in 1890.
• Shortest price to win - Phar Lap 11-8 on - 1930.
• Prince Of Penzance joined the list of longest priced winners in 2015 starting at 100-1.
• Barriers have been of little importance with the 1000m run to the first turn. Since 1988 Kingston Rule drew 1, Prince Of Penzance 1, Might and Power 2, Saintly 3, Media Puzzle 3 as well as Cross Counter 19, Empire Rose 20, Doriemus 21, Rogan Josh 21, Vow And Declare 21, Brew 23.
• Leading Trainers - Bart Cummings (12), Etienne de Mestre (5), Lee Freedman (5).
• Leading Jockeys - Bobbie Lewis (4), Harry White (4).
• Winners by Age - 3yo x 25, 4yo x 45, 5yo x 46, 6yo x 31, 7yo x 10, 8yo+ x 2.
• By comparison with the Caulfield Cup, only nine 4yos have won at Flemington in the last 34 years.
• First Female Trainer to win - Sheila Laxon (Ethereal 2001) while Gai Waterhouse became the second in 2013.
• Michelle Payne famously became the first female jockey to take the Cup in 2015.

*Xhttps://resource11.racingandsports.com.au/Photos/photogallery/medium/Ethereal - 0547 - 12.jpg;right;1;Ethereal gets up late
to win the Cup in 2001

• First Million Dollar race - What a Nuisance 1985.
• While horses like Might and Power made all the running and Delta Blues was on pace, most recent winners have been well and truly in the second half of the field.
• Mare victories are a conundrum. They have won 5 of the last 20 and 7 of the last 30 Cups but that isn’t the norm. Before Empire Rose in 1988 you had to go back to Light Fingers in 1965.
• Traditionally it has always been thought that the Caulfield Cup was the best lead up but that is no longer the case (Before Vow And Declare, Viewed was last to run in it in 2008).
• Last 10 Winners Most Prevalent Age of winner - 5yo (4 times)
• Last 10 Winners Average Weight of winner - 53.5kg
• Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner - 20-1
• Breakdown of winners – 1 colt, 4 geldings & 5 entires
• Races that the winner ran in prior – Caulfield Cup (1), Geelong Cup (2), Cox Plate (2), Herbert Power (1), Moonee Valley Cup (1), Bart Cummings (1), English St Leger (1), Great Voltigeur Stks (1).

RECENT WINNERS

• 2020 - TWILIGHT PAYMENT 7g (Teofilo x Dream On Buddy) (25-1)
  Jockey: Jye McNeil, Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
  Barrier: 12, Weight: 55.5kg, Gross Time: 3:17.34
  Margin: 0.4L, Track: Good (3), Starters: 23
  2nd: Tiger Moth (K McEvoy-52.5kg), 3rd: Prince Of Arran (J Kah-54.5kg)
  
  Review: There were so many aspects to this Melbourne Cup. The first and most obvious was that it was run in front of no crowd due to the coronavirus pandemic. A quiet Flemington is not a usual place. You then had once again about half the field being overseas horses and once again they dominated with the trifecta. Jye McNeil went to the front out of the straight, kept up a good gallop and had them all chasing before the corner. Even when he began to get tired, so too did those in behind. One of the favs Tiger Moth closed off his heels and the ubiquitous Prince Of Arran ran another great race but they couldn’t reel him in giving Joseph O’Brien another win and once again beating his father home. Sadly Anthony Van Dyck broke down with 400m to go and could not be saved.
  
  
• 2019 - VOW AND DECLARE 4g (Declaration Of War x Geblitzt) (10-1)
  Jockey: Craig Williams, Trainer: Danny O’Brien
  Barrier: 21, Weight: 52.0kg, Gross Time: 3:24.76
  Margin: 0.2L, Track: Soft (5), Starters: 24
  2nd: Prince Of Arran (M Walker-54.0kg), 3rd: Il Paradiso (W Lordan-52.5kg)
  
  Review: After all the talk about the international invasion continuing following the Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate, it was a little Aussie bred lightweight that won the Cup. Vow And Declare had taken an unusual route after running nice races in the Brisbane winter including a 3000m win in the Tatts Cup. To add to the comeback stories, Craig Williams finally got redemption after so many years of trying and Danny O’Brien had had his own well-publicised racing battles to overcome away from the track. Williams fired VAD out of the gates to be in front past the post then handed up. It was a slowly run Cup – 8 seconds slower than the record. That let him get a soft run and have enough in hand when the gaps appeared at the top of the straight. As Dettori looked home on Master Of Reality he began to wander and drifted in, causing interference to a charging Il Paradiso. Vow And Declare poked up the inside again as Prince Of Arran surged late but the Aussie held on. The race wasn’t over as the protest by the stewards 4th v 2nd was upheld. The result gave the sire Declaration Of War the Derby/Cup double – the first time since 1982.
  
  
• 2018 - CROSS COUNTER 3g (Teofilo x Waitress) (8-1)
  Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy, Trainer: Charlie Appleby
  Barrier: 19, Weight: 51.0kg, Gross Time: 3:21.17
  Margin: 1L, Track: Soft (6), Starters: 24
  2nd: Marmelo (H Bowman-56.0kg), 3rd: A Prince Of Arran (M Walker-53.0kg)
  
  Review: Godolphin had tried for 30 years to win the race and had come close with multiple second placings. However this time they came with a battle plan. European three year olds made it back to back wins in the great race and this was an outstanding staying effort. Cross Counter had run so well in top mile and a half contests back home against really good classic season horses. Not winning all of them meant the light weight. Despite a hiccup causing the need for bandages he was well backed. He missed disaster out of the straight when The Cliffsofmoher broke down but was still second last with 1000m to go. McEvoy had won twice before and went wider looking for clear runs as Bowman on Marmelo took inside runs. Winding up, the blue with a red cap got momentum at the furlong and galloped on by for a superb win. The blue army got to celebrate for the first time.