2020 Melbourne Cup Runner Preview

1. Anthony Van Dyck

B 4H Galileo (IRE) - Believe'n'succeed (AUS) (Exceed And Excel (AUS)).

High class performer. Won 6 races from 18 starts. ($4,127,358) Half brother to Group One winner Bounding who was a star sprinter. Group One performer himself, most famously having won The Derby (3yo Open) over 2420m at Epsom Downs in 2019. A seventh Derby winner for Aidan O’Brien at the time. Can mix form but has been on the top of his game of late. Impressed winning the Group Two Prix Foy (4yo+ Open) over 2400m at Longchamp, seeing off champion stayer Stradivarius. Outstanding effort last time. Left with plenty to do from a wide barrier when second (beaten a head) behind Verry Elleegant over 2400m on a slow track in Caulfield Cup (3yo+ Open), closing strongly at the finish. Won 6 races from 1408m to 2420m. Untried beyond that trip, and pedigree would raise some query over the two miles, but draws to get a soft run this time and his class is without question. First Epsom Derby winner to tackle the Melbourne Cup. Would need to carry more weight than any in the metric era to land that double but he has star power and looks one of the biggest winning threats.

2. Avilius

BR 6G Pivotal (GB) - Alessandria (GB) (Sunday Silence (USA)).

Won 11 races from 32 starts. ($3,423,018) Full brother to Group Two winner Saint Baudolino. Half brother to Listed Race winners Well Of Wisdom and Army Bulletin. Multiple Group One winner including George Main Stakes (3yo+ Open) over 1600m at Randwick, Tancred Stakes (3yo+ Open) over 2400m at Rosehill and the Ranvet Stakes (3yo+ Open) over 2000m at Rosehill. Closed strongly from the turn behind Kolding in the Hill Stakes (3yo+ Open) over 2000m at Randwick before a luckless run when sixth (beaten 2.6 lengths) behind Verry Elleegant over 2400m on a slow track in Caulfield Cup (3yo+ Open). Held up at a vital stage in the Caulfield Cup. Failed to run his race in the Melbourne Cup in 2018. Better over shorter trips since then. Caulfield Cup run showed that he retains his ability, and good enough to play a role at this level, but he is far from assured over two miles.

3. Vow And Declare

CH 5G Declaration Of War (USA) - Geblitzt (AUS) (Testa Rossa (AUS)).

Last year’s Melbourne Cup winner looking to defend his title. Won 4 races from 19 starts. ($5,875,930) Half brother to Listed Race winner Lycurgus. Group One performer. Won the Melbourne Cup (3yo+ Open) over 3200m at Flemington in 2020 following on from landing the Group Three Tattersall's Cup (Open) over 3000m at Eagle Farm. Just fair form this campaign. Two runs back finished twelfth behind Verry Elleegant in Turnbull Stakes (4yo+ Open) over 2000m at Flemington. Rating dropped last start when fifteenth, 4.7L behind Verry Elleegant in Caulfield Cup (3yo+ Open) over 2400m. Return to two miles will assist and he stayed the trip well to score last year. Versatile and has the pace to sit on the back of the speed but faces a far tougher test in 2020 and his will need a clear new career peak to land a second Cup.

4. Master Of Reality

B 5G Frankel (GB) - L'ancresse (IRE) (Darshaan (GB)).

Won 4 races from 17 starts. ($697,906) Winner of Group Three Vintage Crop Stakes (4yo+ Open) over 2816m at Navan. Building with each run in 2020. Two runs back ran well when second, beaten a nose over 2816m at Curragh in Irish St Leger Trial Stakes (3yo+ Open) behind Delphi. Built on that again last time, winning at Down Royal in Her Majesty's Plate (4yo+) over 2816m defeating Barbados comfortably. Won 4 races from 2400m to 2816m. Second past the post in this race last year before being demoted to fourth for causing interference. Had the run of things there, and result may well have flattered, as did his Ascot Gold Cup placing in 2019. Racing pattern means he can overachieve but he is surely vulnerable to faster horses.

5. Sir Dragonet

B 4H Camelot (GB) - Sparrow (IRE) (Oasis Dream (GB)).

Second up in Australia having excelled himself last time. Won 3 races from 10 starts. ($3,652,583). Group One performer. Won the WS Cox Plate (3yo+ Open) over 2040m at Moonee Valley, pulling clear late at the end of a searching race. Won in very similar conditions in the 2019 Group Three Chester Vase (3yo Open) over 2472m. Won 3 races from 2040m to 2505m. Looked to tire at the end of the St Leger at lone run over further but stamina was to the fore in the Cox Plate. Won on good to slow tracks but best form has come on soft. Firmer ground may be of some concern but he rates highly on the back of his win last time and that he was coming clear there can be seen as a big tick for his stamina. Must get further now but one of just four Cox Plate winners to line up in the race in the past 25 years with two having won and one running third. Big rating and looks sure to play a major role if getting the journey.

6. Twilight Payment

B 7G Teofilo (IRE) - Dream On Buddy (IRE) (Oasis Dream (GB)).

Won 7 races from 30 starts. ($864,407) Multiple Group winner including Group Two Curragh Cup (3yo+) over 2816m, Group Two Curragh Cup (3yo+) over 2816m, Group Three Vintage Crop Stakes (4yo+ Open) over 2816m all at the Curragh. Not raced for 51 days. Strong run last start when third behind Search For A Song in Irish St Leger Stakes (3yo+) over 2816m on good going at the Curragh on 13th September beaten 2.4 lengths. Failed to land a third straight win but maintained strong run of form. Acts on all going. Can race prominently. Midfield in this race last year but even better in 2020 and not one to be dismissed lightly.

7. Verry Elleegant

BR 5M Zed (NZ) - Opulence (NZ) (Danroad (AUS)).

Group One performer. Won 11 races from 24 starts. ($6,896,207) Multiple Group One winner including Caulfield Cup (3yo+ Open) over 2400m when last seen. Also won the Turnbull Stakes (4yo+ Open) over 2000m at Flemington and Winx Stakes (3yo+ Open) over 1400m at Randwick, in a sparkling run of form this spring. Won 11 races from 1400m to 2400m on good to heavy tracks. Best performances have come on soft ground. Races very keenly, carries her head awkwardly, but she has an outstanding record and looks well treated here all things considered. If she can switch off through the middle stages of the race she should have the stamina to see out the two miles and her ability to accelerate will carry her a long way. High class mare that shapes as one of the best chances.

8. Mustajeer

BR 7G Medicean (GB) - Qelaan (USA) (Dynaformer (USA)).

Won 5 races from 29 starts. ($2,025,046) Best Australian effort to date when placed behind Verry Elleegant in Group One Tancred Stakes (3yo+ Open) over 2400m at Rosehill. Also Group One placed back in Ireland when third in Group One Tattersalls Gold Cup (4yo+) over 2112m at Curragh behind Magical. Even effort last start when eighth behind Verry Elleegant in Caulfield Cup (3yo+ Open) over 2400m. Won the Ebor on good to firm ground but has shaped better on softer than that in Australia. Was well beaten in the Melbourne Cup last year and looks to face a tougher test in 2020. Others should have his measure.

9. Stratum Albion

B 7G Dansili (GB) - Lunar Phase (IRE) (Galileo (IRE)).

Smart performer over both jumps and on the flat. Won 6 races from 29 starts. ($642,704) As good as ever last time out, placed behind Enbihaar in Group Two Lonsdale Cup (3yo+ Open) over 3270m at York. Not raced for 74 days but can race well fresh. Won 6 races from 2018m to 3621m. Won on good to slow tracks and placed on heavy tracks. Some time since he has seen good ground on the flat. Coming off a strong last start effort but query whether he has the pace for this on good ground and a career best is likely to be required.

10. Dashing Willoughby

B 4G Nathaniel (IRE) - Miss Dashwood (GB) (Dylan Thomas (IRE)).

Won 4 races from 14 starts. ($387,074) Multiple Group winner including Group Two Queen's Vase (3yo) over 2847m at Ascot, Group Three Henry II Stakes (4yo+ Open) over 3264m at Sandown Park. Two runs back finished fourth behind Enbihaar in Lonsdale Cup (3yo+ Open) over 3270m on a good track at York on 21st August beaten 2.5 lengths. Ran a poor race last time when eighteenth behind Verry Elleegant in Caulfield Cup (3yo+ Open) over 2400m. Dropped away quickly when the pressure went on. Won on good to slow tracks and stays two miles well. Likely to race with the speed. Lacked speed in a slowly run Caulfield Cup and may do better in a more truly run race back out to two miles where he is best performed. Unlikely to prove good enough to beat these, however, and makes little appeal off such a plain last start effort.

11. Finche

CH 6G Frankel (GB) - Binche (USA) (Woodman (USA)).

Solid performer. Won 4 races from 18 starts. ($1,291,321) Half brother to Group One winners Proviso and Byword. Multiple Group winner including Group Two Prix Eugene Adam (3yo Open) over 2000m at Maisons-Laffitte, Group Three Prix De Reux (3yo+ Open) over 2500m at Deauville and the Group Three Kingston Town Stakes (3yo+ Open) over 2000m at Randwick. Two runs back worked from a wide barrier and stayed on to finish third behind Verry Elleegant in Turnbull Stakes (4yo+ Open) over 2000m at Flemington. Behind the same winner when fifth (beaten 2.4 lengths) over 2400m on slow going in Caulfield Cup (3yo+ Open) last time. Winner from 1600m to 2500m but stays two miles well as shown by his grand efforts in this race in both 2018 and 2019. Has pace and should race prominently. Among the big winners at the barrier draw and should find himself in a positive position early. One of the winning chances given that.

12. Prince Of Arran

B 7G Shirocco (GER) - Storming Sioux (GB) (Storming Home (GB)).

Grand performer with a great record in Australia. Won 6 races from 44 starts. ($3,126,071). Multiple Group winner including Group Three Geelong Cup (Open) over 2400m in 2019, the Group Three Hotham Handicap (Open) over 2500m at Flemington in 2018. Ran well when third beaten 7 lengths over 2413m at Kempton Park Aw in September Stakes (3yo+ Open) behind Enable, shaping as well and looking sure to improve. Drew wide and settled well back before storming home to finish fourth behind Verry Elleegant over 2400m on a slow track in Caulfield Cup (3yo+ Open). Last time. Can race much closer to the pace up to two miles. Versatile and reliable. Great record in this race, placed the last two years, and going as well as ever in 2020. Looks sure to give a great account once again.

13. Surprise Baby

B/BR 6G Shocking (AUS) - Bula Baby (NZ) (Kaapstad (NZ)).

Talented stayer. Won 5 races from 13 starts. ($998,735) Multiple Group winner including Group Two Adelaide Cup (3yo+ Open) over 3200m at Morphettville and the Group Three The Bart Cummings (Open) over 2520m at Flemington, both in 2019. Not raced for 31 days. Resumed when a closing second behind Humidor in John F Feehan Stakes (Open) over 1600m at Moonee Valley then ran well (beaten 2.4 lengths) behind Verry Elleegant over 2000m on good going in Turnbull Stakes (4yo+ Open). Unlucky in this race last year when staying on having been left too much to do from a wide draw. Better draw this time around and ratings have him going as well as ever. The return to 3200m suits. Good record at the trip and a very natural stayer. One of the leading chances.

14. King Of Leogrance

B 5G Camelot (GB) - Amourette (FR) (Halling (USA)).

Consistent and improving. Won 5 races from 15 starts. ($589,466) Winner of Group Two Adelaide Cup (3yo+ Open) over 3200m at Morphettville. Resumed when thirteenth (beaten 4 lengths) behind Verry Elleegant over 2000m on good going in Turnbull Stakes (4yo+ Open), beaten for pace, but improved last start when third behind Steel Prince in Geelong Cup (Open) over 2400m.. Had a nice run through there but ran as well as ever. Is a winner at 3200m having landed the Adelaide Cup over the trip earlier in 2020. Set for this day from that point onwards and well connected. This will take a clear career best effort, with more on his plate than he has faced so far, but he is one heading the right way and promises to do well.

15. Russian Camelot

B/BR 3C Camelot (GB) - Lady Babooshka (GB) (Cape Cross (IRE)).

Highly promising galloper. Won 4 races from 9 starts. ($1,466,225) Multiple Group One winner including Underwood Stakes (3yo+ Open) over 1800m at Caulfield. Stayed well when winning the South Australian Derby (3yo Open) over 2500m at Morphettville. Racing consistently. Two runs back ran well when beaten for late speed into second over 2000m at Caulfield in Caulfield Stakes (3yo+ Open) behind Arcadia Queen on a good track. Solid run last start when third behind Sir Dragonet in WS Cox Plate (3yo+ Open) over 2040m on a soft track at Moonee Valley on 24th October beaten 2.1 lengths. Worked early there and tired but still learning and improving. Strong at the end of 2500m and has looked an outstanding prospect for this race from that point on. The Cox Plate has served as a terrific lead up to the Melbourne Cup in recent times and it may provide the platform for him to run to a career best here.

16. Steel Prince

B 6G Nathaniel (IRE) - Steel Princess (IRE) (Danehill (USA)).

Reliable. Won 9 races from 26 starts. ($1,063,453) Two runs back stayed on well when third behind Persan in The Bart Cummings (Open) over 2510m at Flemington. Career best effort to date last time when the winner of Group Three Geelong Cup (Open) over 2400m. Seeing the trip out well and showing his typical game attitude. Winner of nine races from 1800m to 2800m and has performed on good and heavy tracks. Versatile in trip, ground and tactics. Another career best required here but he arrives in winning form and looks sure to see out the two miles. He’s among the each way hopes.

17. The Chosen One

B 5H Savabeel (AUS) - The Glitzy One (AUS) (Flying Spur (AUS)).

Honest. Won 6 races from 26 starts. ($1,316,297) Multiple Group winner including Group Two Herbert Power Stakes (Open) over 2400m at Caulfield, Group Three Frank Packer Plate (3yo Open) over 2000m at Randwick and the Group Three Manawatu Classic (3yo Open) over 2000m at Awapuni. As good as he has ever been last start when third behind Verry Elleegant in Caulfield Cup (3yo+ Open) over 2400m. Won 6 races from 1400m to 2400m. Saw two miles for the first and only time in this race last year and failed to show his form. Coming off a career best effort at Caulfield but he is far from assured to repeat that out to this trip and more is likely to be required of him.

18. Ashrun

B 4H Authorized (IRE) - Ashantee (GER) (Areion (GER)).

Won 4 races from 13 starts. Half brother to Group Two winner Ashiana. Winner of Group Three Prix De Reux (3yo+ Open) over 2500m at Deauville. Best effort in Europe this season when second beaten 1.5 lengths over 3000m at Deauville in Prix Kergorlay (3yo+ Open) behind Call The Wind on slow going. One paced but strong late when fourth behind Steel Prince in Geelong Cup (Open) over 2400m before stepping slowly but again staying on powerfully from a long way back to win the Hotham Handicap (Open) over 2500m at Flemington on Saturday. Wide draw here is likely to leave him with plenty to do as he lacks early pace but he stays strongly and if coping with a busy schedule he is among the key winning hopes.

19. Warning

CH 4G Declaration Of War (USA) - Livia (AUS) (Galileo (IRE)).

Last year’s VRC Derby winner. Won 2 races from 16 starts. ($1,505,900) Group One performer won the Victoria Derby (3yo Open) over 2500m at Flemington. Two runs back stayed on well off a slow tempo (beaten a length) behind Verry Elleegant over 2000m on good going in Turnbull Stakes (4yo+ Open). Rating dropped last time when twelfth (beaten 5 lengths) behind Verry Elleegant over 2400m on slow going in Caulfield Cup (3yo+ Open). Winner to 2500m but looks sure to stay two miles. Acts on all ground but may prefer soft with this emphasis firmly on stamina. He looks a top ten chance here but may lack the punch to become just the second Victoria Derby winner since Phar Lap to come back and win here.

20. Etah James

BR 8M Raise The Flag (GB) - Etah (NZ) (Danasinga (AUS)).

Useful. Won 8 races from 32 starts. ($1,248,987) Won the Group One Sydney Cup (3yo+ Open) over 3200m at Randwick. Resumed when thirteenth behind Mirage Dancer in The Metropolitan (3yo+ Open) over 2400m at Randwick and improved last start when fourth (beaten 4 lengths) behind Miami Bound over 2500m on a slow track in Moonee Valley Cup (4yo+ Open). Has won on good to heavy tracks with best form coming on ground soft or worse. Stays two miles but may lack a gear for a race of this quality. One of the outsiders at this level.

21. Tiger Moth

B 3C Galileo (IRE) - Lesson In Humility (IRE) (Mujadil (USA)).

Rapid improver. Won 2 races from 4 starts. ($365,360) Half brother to Listed winner Coach House who was a speedy sprinter. Winner of Group Three Kilternan Stakes (3yo+ Open) over 2414m at Leopardstown to book his place in the Melbourne Cup. Showed huge promise prior to that when beaten a head over 2414m at Curragh in the Group One Irish Derby (3yo) behind Santiago on a good track. Heavily backed in a competitive race last time and saw the trip out well to win impressively. Won in the style of a horse with plenty more to come and to have been placed in an Irish Derby at just his third starts speaks volumes for his natural talent. Inexperienced and out to become the most lightly tried winner of the race since 1883 but runs for a master trainer and brings a powerful profile.

22. Oceanex

B/BR 5M Ocean Park (NZ) - Danex (NZ) (Danasinga (AUS)).

Won 6 races from 22 starts. ($721,970) Winner of Group Two Matriarch Stakes (4yo+ Mares Open) over 2000m at Flemington last season. Won her way into this race with success in the Andrew Ramsden (Open) over 2800 here at Flemington, staying well to beat King Of Leogrance. Outpaced late on when beaten 4 lengths over 2000m at Flemington in Turnbull Stakes (4yo+ Open) behind Verry Elleegant on a good track but back to her best form when third beaten 3 lengths over 2500m in Moonee Valley Cup (4yo+ Open) behind Miami Bound on a soft ground. Good record at this course having won 3 races here. Has never raced over 3200m but shapes as though she will get the journey. Won on good to heavy tracks with her best form coming on softer ground. She may lack a gear that a few of these have but she is honest and looks a chance to stay into the first half of the field.

23. Miami Bound

B 4M Reliable Man (GB) - Arapaho Miss (AUS) (Danehill Dancer (IRE)).

Oaks winning mare. Won 5 races from 14 starts. ($1,228,000) Half sister to Listed winner De Little Engine. Group One performer. Won the VRC Oaks (3yo Fillies Open) over 2500m at Flemington in 2019. Mixed form subsequently but back to her very best last time when winning the Group Two Moonee Valley Cup (4yo+ Open) over 2500m. Won 5 races from 1400m to 2500m. Best form has been at 2500m. Won on good to slow tracks, thriving on testing ground last time with stamina to the fore. She looks sure to stay the two mile journey, and arrives off a career best effort. More required again here but she runs for the stable that produced last year’s winner and a big run would hardly surprise.

24. Persan

BR 4H Pierro (AUS) - Ofcourseican (AUS) (Mossman (AUS)).

Consistent. Won 6 races from 19 starts. ($656,971) Winner of Group Three The Bart Cummings (Open) over 2510m at Flemington. Not raced for 31 days. Racing in great heart. Two runs back second (beaten a head) behind Lord Belvedere over 2500m on a good track in Very Special Kids Pin And Win (Open). Good record at this course having won 4 Races here up to 2510m. Earned his place here by winning the Bart Cummings and that form has worked out well. Been on the bounce for a long time but continues to turn up and give a good account. Would be a surprise if he were good enough to win this but he is very genuine.