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Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Wednesday’s Warwick Farm meeting. Selections based on a heavy track. Monitor for bias/pattern.

8. Excelladus resumes as a gelding and looks to have come back in top order after two hidden trials. He has been not extended in both heats and has hit the line full of energy under a tight grip. The three-year-old raced in time/sectional merit races last preparation, and there have been multiple subsequent metropolitan winners since. The John Thompson trained galloper maps well, his figures line up, and if he can reproduce his trial form, he will be in the finish.

Dangers: 1. Oxford Vision had all favours last start at Wyong 13 days ago but sprinted hard, and there was a big margin to third. He brings a fitness edge relative to his rivals and expect an aggressive ride. 2. Giancarlo is a first starter and has trialled well enough. 7. Maralago cost himself winning after wanting to lay in for most of the straight at Newcastle 18 days ago. Market watch 5. Brechen who was heavily backed on debut $4.50-$3.50 but was disappointing.

How to play it: Excelladus WIN ($3.10 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Tricky 2YO race with first starters engaged and a small sample of disclosed heavy track form. Debutant 5. Ringmaster looks a nice type and has trialled well on rain-affected ground in preparation for this assignment. The Michael Freedman trained galloper ran fast time/sectionals relative to the morning and showed the key attribute of acceleration in his latest 1050m heat at Randwick eight days ago. Jockey Tommy Berry will have options from the wide draw with a considerable run to the first turn and ride to any early evident pattern.

Dangers: First starter 6. Shaquila, who represents value, has responded well under pressure in his heats. He maps well and looks to have improved between trials. 9. Compelling Truth was wide with cover in a fast time race relative to the day and tried hard to the line at Hawkesbury 22 days ago. Further, he brings a race experience and fitness edge. 1. London ran fourth to multiple Group 1 winner Fireburn first-up last preparation, and Hugh Bowman takes the ride. Market watch 7. Silentsar who will be wound up ready to run well for training partnership G Ryan & S Alexiou.

How to play it: Ringmaster WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

4. Samarkand resumed at Kembla 11 days ago for new trainer Bjorn Baker and won dominantly. The three-year-old gelding led at a fast pace and ran strong sustained sectionals throughout to run his rivals into the ground. He was sound last preparation when contesting feature group races in the spring and looks well placed here. Expect an aggressive ride; the step-up in distance suits, Hugh Bowman rides for the first time, and all his peak figures have come on heavy ground.

Dangers: Irish import 5. Colour Sergeant hit the line hard to win at Canberra 19 days ago and looks a real trier. He was not run to suit, settling worse than midfield in a farcical tempo but overcame this with a burst of acceleration, running one of the quickest final 400m sectionals of the meeting in 23.48. The four-year-old gelding will need to step in figures to make the grade, but he does look an improver and undoubtedly has a chance. 7. Vittoriosa had all favours last start at Canterbury 7 days ago when running second but sprinted hard, and there was a big gap to third. The four-year-old mare, who is on a backup, will roll forward and is racing consistently. Forgive 2. Dream Runner who had cardiac arrhythmia last start and has trialled well in between runs. 6. Chateaux Park will be running on strongly.

How to play it: Samarkand WIN ($2.90 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

4. Main Stage has been a model of consistency this preparation and is a last start winner at Canterbury seven days ago. The pace negated the bias on that occasion, and the seven-year-old gelding was simply too strong for his rivals. He maps to get complete control of the pace, races well on a backup, is proven on wet ground, and a repeat of his last start figure will make him hard to hold out. In addition, Rachel King has ridden him five times for two wins and two seconds.

Dangers: Forgive 2. Pesto last start at Hawkesbury, where he was slow to recover. Since arriving in Australia, the six-year-old gelding has been a costly conveyance, but this is his easiest test. Further, he has always promised to have the ability and is a key late market watch. 3. Hemmerle got too far back in the Orange Cup 19 days ago and hit the line hard to run fifth. He gets in well at the weights after the regular rider Hannah Williams claim. 8. Stylebender is the knockout where he produces his peak figures with the blinkers off.

How to play it: Main Stage WIN ($2.25 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.

5. Italian Informant was specked $12.0-$7.5 late in betting at this track nine days ago and was honest in defeat after racing wide throughout. Further, the overall time was solid, with plenty of merit in the final section relative to the day, and there were decisive margins throughout to confirm the form. The three-year-old third-up last preparation had the pace/bias against and savaged the line to run the entire meeting's fastest final 600m/400m splits in 33.83/22.53 at Gosford. Trainer Edward Cummins is flying at 13.1% profit on turnover from his last 100 runners, and all the gelding's career peak efforts have come on rain-affected ground. In addition, he maps to get all favours, and if he can repeat his last start figure, he is sure to be in the finish.

Dangers: 8. No Statement led at an even tempo last start at Nowra 10 days ago and sprinted away to win dominantly. He rises in class but is rock-hard fit and benefits from a recent run relative to his rivals. 1. Rebel Shadow is the class runner of the field and although he may be suited over further, expect him to be hitting the line hard first-up. 2. Hold On Honey broke through for his maiden win last start at Newcastle 18 days ago, albeit running slow time. However, one of his career peak figures is at this track/distance.

How to play it: Italian Informant WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

2. Coal Crusher went out a dominant winner last preparation and returned in style, winning at Wyong 13 days ago. The four-year-old gelding was checked/blocked on the final turn, but once a gap came, he sprinted one of the fastest final 200m splits of the entire meeting in 11.08 and won with ease on the line. Expecting an aggressive ride, the step-up in distance suits and his career peak figures have come on heavy going that align well against his opposition.

Dangers: 13. Showtime Lady ticks many boxes for this event and gets key factors in her favour. Her latest trial was full of merit, and she is wound up and ready to run well. Forgive 9. Daralina Belle who was slow to recover last start and has trialled well in-between runs. The four-year-old mare has a strong record and can bounce back into form. 1. Game Theory is in career-best form, winning his past two starts, and has a fitness edge. 12. Buba can sprint well fresh. 10. Green Flash has been gelded and must go in all trifectas and first fours.

How to play it: Coal Crusher WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds) & Showtime Lady WIN ($10 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Best Bet: Race 5 # 5 – Italian Informant

Next Best: Race 1 # 8 – Excelladus

Best Value: Race 6 # 2 – Coal Crusher & #13 Showtime Lady