3 minute read
Tips for Rosehill by Brad Gray.
Race 1 - 11:00AM BOWERMANS HANDICAP (1300 METRES)
3. Madame Pommery charged clear of her rivals first up, flagging that she had improved significantly from her first preparation. The Chris Waller-trained two-year-old stalked the leaders at Rosehill before putting three lengths on the field. It was her late strength that was most impressive about the win. Her 36.14s last 600m split was the sixth quickest across the entire meeting. Handy for a youngster at just start two. Her last 200m split of 12.29s was 1.5 lengths quicker than the next best in the race. Well regarded stablemate Northern Beaches laboured into third. The overall time was the quickest of the four 1400m races across the meeting. Yes, she had first crack at the track but it's still very encouraging when two-year-old times match up to the older horses. That sets up Madame Pommery perfectly out to 1300m now. Every indicator suggests she'll relish further.
Dangers: 1. Baroque Road wasn't the quickest into stride on debut at the midweeks and had to work hard early to find the front. He managed to back off slightly at the 600m, getting a little breather, but there was a lot to like about the way he ran through the line at the end of 1100m, doing it at both ends. He too appears as though he'll relish the extra trip and like the wide draw, allowing Brenton Avdulla to slide across in his own time. Debutant 6. Osipenko has shown natural speed in his trials and has run right through the line despite being put under very little pressure. Looks a talent and shouldn't be far away in the run. Big market watch. 2. Backrower, the half brother to Le Romain, came from the second half of the field to win at Newcastle on debut, beating a subsequent winner in Huon. Has to take that next step now.
How To Play It: Madame Pommery WIN
Race 2 - 11:35AM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1100 METRES)
17. Overextend has run second at his last two starts, both in Highway Handicaps. He had his chance behind Boom Boom Basil two weeks ago over 1200m but couldn't reel him in. Interesting that Rod Northam takes the blinkers off coming back to 1100m. His second to Hardware Lane at Hawkesbury prior to that was over 1100m so doubt the slight drop back in trip will be an excuse. He was held up momentarily that run too. The three-year-old is still honing his race craft so he is only going to get better the more racing he does. The son of Outreach gets in very light again with 52.5kg after the claim of regular rider Reece Jones and he maps to get the run of the race again. With the fitness edge over a couple of his main threats, coupled with a perfect run in transit, he gets his chance to go one better.
Dangers: 3. Pure Fuego savaged the line behind Overextend last start, suggesting that he has put a couple of plain runs behind him from last preparation. He wasn't himself. Pure Fuego clocked some of the fastest closing splits all meeting and given his history of improving sharply second up, that sets him up nicely here. The only knock is 1200m back to 1100m. 4. Comonic resumed from a year on the sidelines at Hawkesbury and showed his rivals a clean pair of heels, winning by three lengths going away. He has built a tidy little record, makes his own luck and the timing looks perfect for a crack at a Highway. 1. Blow Dart pays for his consistency with 61kg but he is a proven Highway performer and ran well in BM72 company first up over 1000m at Gosford. 2. Nadaraja returns from tie back surgery.
How To Play It: Overextend WIN
Race 3 - 12:10PM THE AGENCY HANDICAP (1800 METRES)
7. Willinga Rufio made a big impression on debut, albeit in a Hawkesbury maiden. He sat outside of the leader over 1500m and the further they went the stronger he got. Mycah Leon and Uncaged ran fourth and fifth there, beaten near four lengths, and they've won maidens themselves since. It's no surprise to see the Mark Newnham stable jump him straight out to 1800m at just start two given his pedigree. His full brother is Group One winner in South Africa, winning six races, and he has won out to 2800m. The son of Dundeel will roll across into a prominent position from the wide draw, potentially settling outside of the leader once more, and he looks to be a talented young stayer in the making. He's certainly got more upside than and of his rivals and he's in the right hands with Newnham.
Dangers: 9. Mum's The Boss has had excuses at her last two starts. In the Gold Coast Bracelet she copped a squeeze soon after the start. That was at Listed level too. Last start she was shuffled back in the run when seventh behind Aravene, going from fourth at the 800m to 10th at the 400m. She picked herself up again to hit the line. It was a hidden run and she should have been fighting out the placings. 3. Tympanist resumed with an exclamation mark at the midweeks, landing some good bets. He found the right part of the Kensington track that day but he won by three lengths going away. He sets up well out to 1800m second up. 4. African Daisy has her first run beyond the mile but the timing is right and she drops to 54kg after the claim of Ellen Hennessey. No excuses on the map.
How To Play It: Willinga Rufio WIN
Race 4 - 12:45PM MIDWAY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
1. French Bonnet is mixing her form this preparation but she has had genuine excuses for her last two starts. At Hawkesbury she was found to have been galloped on, and found herself in an awkward spot upon settling from the wide draw, while last start she just went too fast in front. It was pedal to the metal early and that gassed her late, setting it up for the closers. She wasn't too bad all considered. If she can reproduced her second up performance, which saw her win a Randwick Midway, she's the horse to beat. That day she took a box seat trail and expect her to get a similar run here. After the 3kg claim of Dylan Gibbons the four-year-old grey mare is beautifully placed to bounce back to her best.
Dangers: 7. Anagain is a lightly-raced filly with just the six starts to her name. Liked the way she knuckled down to chase 3. Momack a fortnight ago. She was only second up there having run in the G3 Hawksbury Guineas first up so she had more improvement out of that Midway going into this. The queries being that there was only 1.6L from first to fifth in that Midway and how far back she'll get in the run here. That's no knock on Momack. It was a determined win. He rises 2.5kg, otherwise its an identical set up. Two roughies that can run well are 13. Oakfield Missile and 17. Just Business. One of the best runs of Oakfield Missile's last preparation was first up over a similar trip while Just Business can run on into the money.
How To Play It: French Bonnet WIN
Race 5 - 1:20PM FURPHY WINTER CUP (2400 METRES)
5. Military Mission looked to have the race all parcelled up at Gosford last start before putting in a couple of short ones late, leaving the door open for Hameron to nail him on the line. There was an 8kg weight difference between the pair which perhaps proved the difference in a tight finish. 6. Bonny Ezra ran on into third. That was four weeks ago now, with a tickover trial at Rosehill keeping him up to the mark. The progressive import is still improving, with just 12 starts to his name, and he drops a whopping 7kg from 61kg to the 54kg minimum tackling Listed company. Everything he has done this preparation has given the impression that he'll relish 2400m. The four-year-old will roll forward under Rachel King and as his short quote suggests, he looks mighty hard to beat.
Dangers: 6. Bonny Ezra has three lengths to turn around on Military Mission from their last clash and meets him 3kg worse off. The case for Bonny Ezra purely comes down to fitness. He has raced twice since then so he is a very fit horse now, backing up seven days after running a distant second to Marakopa at Randwick. That was with 58.5kg. 3. Pappalino took off early in the Gosford Cup so happy to forgive him that, before he was doing his best work through the line behind Hopeful last start. That sets him up perfectly for 2400m fourth up. He won over 3000m when trained in France. 2. Alakahan's two Queensland runs haven't been flash but his form over the autumn was certainly good enough to give this a shake.
How To Play it: Military Mission WIN
Race 6 - 1:55PM FAREWELL NEVESH RAMDHANI HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
1. Lady Of Luxury clocked the fastest closing splits of the meeting at Rosehill first up behind Mariamia. That flags that she has returned at least as well as last preparation and she won five races last campaign. It won't be long before she adds to her win tally this time back either. The four-year-old made a wide, sustained sprint to the line on a heavy track with 58kg so the merit to her run was obvious. She takes on the boys second up but drops slightly in grade with her hefty 62kg impost lightened by the 3kg claim from Dylan Gibbons. She gets out quickly to 1400m but respect the placement of Bjorn Baker, scratching her from an equally suitable 1200m race later on the card. Has to be somewhere in the finish.
Dangers: 14. Notions gets in very light after the 3kg claim of Ellen Hennessy and the front looks to be her if she wants it. That makes the lightly-raced filly a dangerous runner. There was a lot to like about the way she went through the grades last preparation before she was deep ended in the G3 Gloaming. Has been noticeably restrained in her two trials. 10. And We Danced hasn't been suited by the shape of both races she has contested this time back with the leaders getting it too easy in the early stages Unfortunately she's found another similar race here. 5. Niffler profiles to be even better again third up out towards the mile but she runs well here. The form through her midweek return has been franked.
How To Play It: Lady of Luxury WIN
Race 7 - 2:30PM PETALUMA HANDICAP (1800 METRES)
How do we assess 6. Arapaho? What he did last start far surpassed anything he'd done in the past. A repeat of that and he wins again but he's more likely to regress than hold that form, it's just a matter of how much. Even allowing for that, he's still clearly the horse to beat. The five-year-old French import had always teased talent since finding a home with Bjorn Baker and it was good to see him put it all together over this same track and trip two weeks ago. He skips a couple of grades jumping from a BM78 to a BM84 but gets in with 56kg because of it. The other factor to consider is how flattered he was by the genuine heavy track at Rosehill. An improving surface this week might play against him.
Dangers: 3. Surf Dancer got away with an easy time in front at Rosehill two weeks ago but thought he showed really good determination to fight out the finish with Night Of Power and Quintello. He too drops down slightly in the weights and should be at his top now third up. 7. Mirann drops back from 2000m to 1800m but everything else looks perfect. He comes back from contesting two Listed races, maps beautifully and has no excuses fourth up. Be forgiving of the margin last start as he was trapped wide throughout. A midrace move on 1. The Frontman very nearly paid off last start where Hopeful needed every bit of the 2000m to wear down the margin. Jason Collett sticks and the former Kiwi comes back in grade.. The trade offs are that he goes up 6kg and has a very tricky draw to contend with.
How To Play It: Arapaho WIN
Race 8 - 3:05PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1200 METRES)
Taking a chance on former Kiwi-trained filly 8. Per Inaway. The filly, who has built a record of 4:2-1-1, before now finding a home with Kris Lees, is the wildcard runner in what is a very winnable race. Being a full sister to Mark Newham's talented sprinter Shadow Crush makes me a touch wary of her on a wet track given he is so much mor dynamic on top of the ground but she looks pretty smart in her own right. She has got speed to use the draw, settling handy in a race without a lot of speed on paper but the real cherry on top was the way she trialled at Scone recently over 1000m. She travelled sweetly the entire trial and still looked to be in second gear when running through the line to edge out Baby Wong at the finish.
Dangers: 7. Rubinocchi was fired out of the barriers first up at Canterbury to take advantage of the rails bias that meeting, trouncing her rivals. She didn't back that up at Scone on a soft track, however. She is on trial at 1200m too. There are queries but her best sees her very hard to beat. 1. Joviality found her form again last preparation, which coincided with racing on soft tracks as opposed to heavy. That's the knock here. She gave Rule Of Law a fright first up back in January and liked the way she trialled ahead of her return. 10. Bitcoin Baby looked to have her chance first up when fourth behind Mariamia over the Rosehill 1200m two weeks ago. Can only strip fitter which puts her around the mark again.
How To Play it: Per Inaway EACH WAY
Race 9 - 3:40PM RANVET HANDICAP (1500 METRES)
14. Wicklow hit the ground running for Chris Waller in his first Australian preparation, winning three of his four starts. He's a very smart horse and we haven't seen the best of him yet. Just concerned about the set up in the context of his price, barrier 1 for a get back horse over a trip short of his best having spent 48 weeks on the sidelines. Has only had the one soft trial here too. The market will tell us everything we need to know late.
Dangers: 6. King of Clubs is another import that is also lightly raced with just the eight starts to his name. Has been competitive over the mile in the past so should be sharp enough for the trip and like the way he has trialled. 11. Ita only has to hold her form to be thereabouts again.
How To Play It: Wicklow WIN
Race 10 - 4:20PM CANADIAN CLUB HANDICAP (1200 METRES)
5. El Buena trialled exceptionally well ahead of his return at Rosehill two weeks ago and he backed that up on the track, running on from last to place second behind Mnementh. He clocked the second quickest last 600m all meeting. We can bank on him at least holding that form but you'd think he can only improve second up given he is trained by Chris Waller. Given that the four-year-old tackles the same track, distance and grade of race, it puts him right in the finish again. The big key is the better draw. He won't have to camp out the back this time. Although his form is pretty well exposed now, having had 17 starts, he may have returned better than ever. We'll know after this but happy to take the gamble that he has.
Dangers: 9. He's A Hotshot is knocking on the door for another win. The form through his Gosford second reads well now, given he split Coal Crusher and Battletone, the latter placing in the Fred Best last Saturday. That was four weeks ago so he's had a tickover trial since. He'll want the track closer to soft than heavy. 8. Dynamic Impact wasn't suited first up at Scone in a slowly run race yet still charged home from the back to run fourth. He too clocked some impressive closing splits. The fastest last 200m split of the meeting, in fact. Dropping back from 1300m to 1200m isn't ideal but being able to park up closer in the run can negate that. 1. Kingsheir is an explosive fresh horse so wary of him here first up. Just wish it was 1400m not 1200m.
How To Play It: El Buena WIN
