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Brad Gray's Tips For Rosehill Gardens (Saturday)

3 minute read

Tips For Rosehill Gardens by Brad Gray

Racecourse : Rosehill Gardens.
Racecourse : Rosehill Gardens. Picture: Mark Evans/Getty Images

Race 1 - 11:20AM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1300 METRES)

4. Daksha is no stranger to Highway Handicaps having contested three of them and all three runs had merit. The grey is capable of reeling off fast closing splits but lacks tactical speed. Hoping the booking of James McDonald will negate that. Even midfield would be a bonus. The six-year-old resumed at Tamworth three weeks ago and just missed. He was charging late. The step out to 1300m looks ideal second up and his placing behind Golden Point and Shelby Sixtysix and fourth to Mr Hussill read well for this now. Even his Highway ninth behind Steplee was much better than it reads on paper. Daksha doesn't make a habit of winning with just two victories from his 15 starts but his turn is coming in this company.

Dangers3. Russley Crown is the most lightly-raced galloper in the field and comes here on the back of a dominant Scone win. That's now two wins from four starts. Reece Jones has bee aboard the Scone-based four-year-old in all three of his starts this preparation and he sticks. Where Russley Crown gets to from the draw is the obvious query. 13. Rebel's Edge ran on powerfully behind Opal Ridge first up before backing that up with an eye catching effort behind Molly Nails here two weeks ago. Draws to settle a touch closer. 6. Zaru comes through that same Highway and raced without luck. He remains stuck on one win from his 22 starts. 9. King's Trust is always a chance and keep an eye on 18. Kelvedon Road if he happens to make the field.

How To Play It: Daksha WIN

Race 2 - 11:55AM DOOLEYS HANDICAP (1300 METRES)

4. Backrower won in good style on debut at Newcastle beating a subsequent winner Huon before running third at Rosehill behind Osipenko. The three-year-old wasn't left with any excuses there but he held his own in what should prove to be a handy race. Have been particularly taken by how well the son of Astern has trialled this time back and with just 10 weeks going by since he last raced, he should hold some residual fitness coming into this assignment. He showed good tactical speed in his two latest trials so he'll be able to use the draw to park in behind the speed and the blinkers go on for the first time. He had the shades on in his most recent heat, when second to Munitions, and there was a lot to like about how he responded to the slightest niggle.

Dangers2. True Crime has improved each time he has stepped out so we still haven't found out his ceiling yet. He fought out the finish with Midnight In Tokyo two starts back at Randwick before ploughing through treacherous conditions again at Randwick out to 1200m. Has the speed to drive forward and find another controlling position. 5. Stonecoat will need to turn the tables on True Crime from three weeks ago and only gets a 1kg swing at the weights but the further he goes the better he'll get. He too will be forced to work early to find a prominent spot in running, perhaps on the outside of True Crime. 6. Waverider Buoy held her ground in the run home at Rosehill last start in what turned into a sprint home behind Troach.

How To Play It: Backrower WIN

Race 3 - 12:30PM MIDWAY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

10. Oakfield Arrow has been beaten by a combined margin of 15 lengths in her two runs back this time in but want to be very forgiving of those failures. First up she tackled a heavy track and felt the pinch late. The speedy mare has always been more dynamic on top of the ground. That must have flattened her second up as 12 days later she produced a shocker at Grafton despite being hard in the market. Willing to take the punt that she can bounce back to the form that saw her win a Midway over this same track and trip second up last preparation where she went straight to the front and never gave her rivals a chance, before backing that up with a narrow second to More Sundays, again at Rosehill. Won't have it all her own way in front this time but at the early odds, the reward outweighs the risk that she can overcome that.

Dangers: It was a welcome return to the winner's stall for 1. Oxford Tycoon last start at Canterbury. The seven-year-old did find the best ground out wide but it was an empathic victory and he should be even better suited to a drier track. He'll need the speed to be on up front given where he has drawn. 7. Chilko Lake is a lightly raced mare trending the right way. She needed the run first up last preparation off a similar let up but she tackles a firmer surface this time and resumes over 1400m. 6. Nictock is a risk at running a strong 1400m, and is very well found in early betting, but he maps to get every chance to see it out and is a must for multiples. There was little between improving types 14. Navajo Peak and 11. Bullet Wing last start at Wyong.

How To Play It: Oakfield Arrow EACH WAY

Race 4 - 1:05PM CABRAMATTA BOWLING CLUB HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

6. Conscript is an unassuming sprinter that has built an imposing record of 15:6-2-3 with minimum fuss and he added to that win tally at Randwick last start over the 1100m, leading all of the way. He beat two subsequent winners there too, with Easy Single and Casino Kid franking the form at their next start. The five-year-old was set to run a fortnight ago but the meeting was abandoned, hence the five weeks between runs. He has just gradually raised the bar each preparation after his first two wins came in country company, this time back proving himself a genuine Saturday class horse. Conscript gets in with 54kg after the claim of Tyler Schiller and he could own this race from in front, pending the tactics on Easy Campese but he isn't a genuine 1200m horse.

Dangers5. Katalin lost her unbeaten first up record last preparation but she was far from disappointing, running on late into third at Listed level at a track, Moonee Valley, that was never going to suit her get-back style. The lack of speed here is the query but she possesses a turn of foot that could still overcome that. 4. Dream Circle and 8. Dalchini fit into a similar category. They both like to smoke the pipe and get the last shot. They too are gallopers capable of reeling off big closing splits but they can be tricky to catch. Dalchini's last start sixth was better than it reads on paper. Former Godolphin trained 1. Munitions steps out for the first time for Richard Litt and has trialled well. He was only beaten three lengths by Quantico first up last preparation.

How To Play It: Conscript WIN

Race 5 - 1:40PM CAMPBELLTOWN CATHOLIC CLUB HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

5. Frumos is a mare going places. The five-year-old has won three from three and by a combined margin of nine lengths. She settled last at Rosehill four weeks ago before rounding up her rivals in a couple of strides. Stablemate Sur La Mer ran second and won her subsequent start by near three lengths while the third placegetter also came out and won thereafter. At even money however, it's not a gamble that comes without risks. Saturday's track at Rosehill is likely to be the firmest she has ever raced on and with the rail out 7m, she's going to find herself giving her rivals a fair head start turning for home. She also stays at 1400m for the fourth run in a row. Frumos absolutely has the class to overcome it, however, and could race her way through to Group company.

Dangers8. Riduna will be at the opposite end of the field, out to pinch it from in front. She's unlikely to get complete control with 3. Pandora Blue and 6. Sally Pops riding the speed with her, but she is holding her form well at the moment and her second to Kanazawa last start reads well for this, coming back to her own sex. 1. Lunakorn found the 1250m a touch sharp at Canterbury last start and the low draw dictated that she couldn't get to the preferred going out wide. She is better suited on a dry track too. Don't underestimate her at big odds. 2. Tawfiq Lass has her 15th run of the preparation but she has never raced better. Has perhaps been flattered by the run of heavy tracks though. 9. Artie's Aura has knockout claims given how well she has trialled.

How To Play It: Frumos WIN

Race 6 - 2:15PM BANKSTOWN SPORTS HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

8. Titanium Power is a big tank of a sprinter more accustomed to carrying 62kg as opposed to 52kg lately. The five-year-old drops a staggering 10.5kg from last start when a fading fourth behind Sur La Mer. He was attacked in front early and that told at the finish. Prior to that he ran second to Cross Talk, albeit a distant second, again with a massive weight. The son of So You Think has been coping okay with the wet tracks but he is so much more effective on top of the ground and looking at the likely shape of this race, he'll be allowed to stride forward to take up the running. There's every likelihood from there that he can completely own the race. He is a very fit horse now, maps to dictate, plummets in weight and a couple of his key rivals resuming are a long way off grand final day.

Dangers3. Oscar Zulu also has a fitness edge and has enough tactical speed to sit handier than what we've seen most recently. He has won four from nine at Rosehill too. 4. Surefire has only had eight starts, winning four of them, and the import made a big impression in his first Australian preparation. Has to cope with 1400m first up but he looked sharp in his one trial and James McDonald takes the ride. 1. Mugatoo's impost of 65kg is offset by the 3kg claim of Dylan Gibbons but add into the mix a 64 week injury enforced layoff, and it's a big ask to expect him to resume a winner. Thought his most recent trial was the pick of them though, which is encouraging. 2. No Compromise has sprinted well fresh in the past while 5. True Detective can improve on his home track.

How To Play It: Titanium Power WIN

Race 7 - 2:55PM CANTERBURY-HURLSTONE PARK RSL HANDICAP (1800 METRES)

Inclined to stick with 5. Lovely Esteem. She'll need to turn the tables on Elusive Jewel from two weeks ago over this same track and trip but she gets a 2kg swing at the weights and looked to peak very late on her run. No excuses fitness wise being fourth up now. The import, having her first preparation in Australia, also wasn't suited by the midrace slowdown. Particularly given that she didn't have the necessary speed to use a low draw and was shuffled out the back to settle down second last. James McDonald sticks with the Stakes-performed mare and he should be able to park up a couple of pairs closer. He'll want to keep Elusive Jewel in his sights turning for home. Long story short, Lovely Esteem is worth another chance.

Dangers2. Elusive Jewel is deep into her preparation but is showing no signs of training off. There doesn't look to be a lot of speed on paper in this and she has the draw, and the tactical versatility, to cash in on that. 13. Monfelicity comes through that same form line but was well held and might be looking for further now. 7. Star Sparks has won four of his seven starts and has lumped big weights to victory this preparation at the provincials. A firmer surface and being the only natural leader bode well for his winning chances. 12. Soffika is working her way back to full fitness and another win looks close. Each time she has run this campaign she has improved.

How To Play It: Lovely Esteem WIN

Race 8 - 3:35PM SMITHFIELD RSL ROSEBUD (1100 METRES)

3. Spacewalk's trials have been exceptional ahead of his return. He last contested the G3 Kindergarten Stakes and although he didn't win, that race has produced some of Godolphin's best three-year-olds. Think Astern, Bivouac and last year, Paulele. Spacewalk's solid build always suggested that he'd come into his own at three too. Back to his trials though, he's had three of them so should be tuned up for this first up assignment and he cleared out with Malkovich and Group One winning mare Snapdancer in the latest of those hitouts. Malkovich has never been beaten in 12 trials and is an excellent benchmark when it comes to judging trials. The cherry on top is the low draw, especially considering it's the Rosehill 1100m and the booking of James McDonald. Can only see him running well.

Dangers11. Zoukerino is the new kid on the block and he made a huge impression on debut at the midweeks. He put three lengths on his rivals once he pushed into the clear. It was equally as impressive on the clock too. He has trialled since and although 5. Kibou won the heat, he was under a lot less pressure. Have got no doubt that he'll measure up despite jumping straight into Listed company from maiden grade. Kibou was sharp enough to get away with a maiden win over 1100m before stepping straight out to 1400m where he beat Osipenko. If he can find the front, he'll run right through the line. 1. Sebonack jumped $6.50 in a Blue Diamond and he too has trialled well ahead of his return. 7. Miss Hellfire warrants respect as does 9. Contemporary at big odds given Ramones ties his form into the favourite Kibou.

How To Play It: Spacewalk WIN

Race 9 - 4:15PM CLUBSNSW HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

This looks to be a race with limited winning chances, and limited speed up top for that matter. Enter 5. Canasta. Yes, he was beaten 10 lengths first up and ran last behind Sur La Mer but there was a stack of excuses for him. He couldn't get his favoured controlling position in front with the early speed setting it up for the closers. The seven-year-old also became unbalanced several times in the straight, striking the running rail before being eased out of the race after being tightened between runners. His second up record reads 5:2-2-0 and Josh Parr jumps back on. Parr has ridden Canasta 13 times for three wins and six placings. It's been 79 weeks since Canasta last won but he has come desperately close on a number of occasions since that last win. Will hug the rail and give his rivals something to chase down.

Dangers8. Kalino had a lot against him at Rosehill last start. He was five weeks between runs, dropping back from the mile to 1300m and found himself shuffled out the back in a race that turned into a sprint home. Throw into the mix that he nearly fell at the 700m mark, he did an exceptional job to be only beaten 1.5 lengths. The only knock is the early price. 4. Marnix comes through that same Sur La Mer race at Rosehill two weeks ago and he ran his typical honest race. He was six weeks between runs himself there, on the back of a Midway win. He'll appreciate a drier track. 9. Just A Jedi produced an eye catching second over 1200m first up and Aecee Express franked that form line on Wednesday.

How To Play It: Canasta WIN, SAVE Kalino

Race 10 - 4:55PM GUILDFORD LEAGUES HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

5. Shades Of Rose is better than BM78 level. The four-year-old mare proved that last start over this same track and trip where she did it at both ends. Not a lot had gone right for her in her two runs prior to that but she atoned in emphatic fashion. James McDonald sticks and suspect he'll again ride her like the best horse in the race. Spear forward from the wide draw and keep her out of trouble. From there, the speedy daughter of Rubick should do the rest having already won four of her six starts. There is a touch more depth to this field compared to the one she touched up two weeks ago but she's hard to mount a case against. Even at the prohibitive odds. No prizes for finding her but she should be too good once more.

Dangers1. Quick Tempo is ready to win. The Newcastle-based sprinter clocked the fastest last 600m of the meeting last Saturday at Randwick when third behind Maotai. He has returned well and another win is very close. 2. The Big Easy beat Shades Of Rose four weeks ago, albeit she travelled deep throughout, and has been freshened since. If the speed is hot up front, few will be finishing harder than The Big Easy. He'd just need a few things to fall into place given his get-back style. 7. Zarastro resumes a gelding but he was very fresh in his one barrier trial ahead of his return. Nash Rawiller is tasked with curbing that first up. 11. Riva Del Sol probably would've run second to Shades Of Rose with clear running last start. The gate is tricky on Saturday, however.

How To Play It: Shades Of Rose WIN

 


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