3 minute read
Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Friday's Canterbury meeting. Selections based on a good track. Monitor for bias/pattern.
Race 1 - 6:00PM SCHWEPPES PLATE (1550 METRES)
Leaning towards 1. Thermodynamic who raced well first-up at Kensington 30 days ago. The gelding had every chance but tried hard in defeat to finish third, and his ratings/sectional profile suggests he can only step off that performance. Further, that race rated highly relative to the day, and the margins throughout confirmed the quality. The Chris Waller galloper has come in on a strong base figure, and expect him to improve sharply from the soft draw with Nash Rawiller riding.
Dangers: 4. Mogwai, who deserves favouritism, has gone to a new level this prep since being gelded and is coming out of time/sectional merit races. He brings a strong SP profile into this event and maps to have all favours with James McDonald riding. 7. Slipstreaming, who is a knockout chance, was restrained from a wide-draw first-up at Newcastle and got too far back in a farcically run race. The mare made up significant ground and ran on well, clocking one of the meeting's fastest final 200m splits. Key indicators suggested 5. Northern Eyes would benefit from his first-up at Kensington, and he'll be more suited out to the 1550m.
How to play it: Thermodynamic WIN ($3.80 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 2 - 6:30PM OGALO HANDICAP (1250 METRES)
1. Jagjit resumes as a gelding and has had two trials leading into this assignment. The three-year-old is still learning, but he put his rivals away easily in a recent heat at Randwick and looks wound up for this event. He brings a strong Canterbury profile; Tim Clark rides, and expect him to take some catching. In addition, he brings formlines around the likes of smart gallopers Celestial Legend and Group 1 winner Griff.
Dangers: 5. New Forest brings a key fitness edge and is ready to peak third-up. The gelding's effort last start was full of merit in a high-rating race at Gosford when running second. Moreover, he led at a fast pace, accelerated off the turn and was just worn down over the concluding stages with a big gap to third. Debutant 3. Determination is a nice type and hit the line well in a recent trial at Randwick. He is a key late market watch and can be in the finish with even luck. 6. Reggae Fire was run to suit first-up at Newcastle 13 days ago, but he ran on solidly and would have improved from that effort.
How to play it: Jagjit WIN ($2.20 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 3 - 7:00PM NICK'S GROUP HANDICAP (1100 METRES)
7. I Am Famous resumes here and has trialled well leading into this assignment. The filly has been restrained in both heats but has gone through the line full of energy, and she looks ready to sprint well fresh. First-up last prep, she tried hard in defeat, running third in a high-rating race that has since produced three subsequent winners, and repeating that figure will put her in the finish here. In addition, she always indicated she would come back improved as a three-year-old, and the genuine anticipated tempo will give her a chance to run over the top of her rivals late. Each-way.
Dangers: 5. Power Ballard is wound up for this event after two solid trials, and she has a solid platform. Expect her to be ridden aggressively early with Nash Rawiller riding, and she'll take some catching. 9. Miss Emma produced a career peak figure first-up at Kensington 16 days ago, and her run was full of merit. Further, she had the pace/bias against her and still reeled off some of the meeting's fastest closing sectionals to run second. The Chris Waller galloper does tend to be slow out of the barriers, but if she jumps well, expect her to be hard to hold out. 12. Zouphoria, who resumes, has won three recent trials and will race on the speed. Add 11. Te Pani and 4. Nefertari to wider exotics.
How to play it: I Am Famous E/W ($11 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 4 - 7:30PM JAMBEROO ACTION PARK HANDICAP (1550 METRES)
2. Willinga Freefall was specked $13-$8 late in the trade last at Kensington, and he ran an honest third after having excuses. The five-year-old had to chase a fast tempo throughout and was checked/blocked at a critical stage, losing momentum, but he picked up well. He's well placed here, bringing strong form lines/figures to this event and his ratings/sectional profile suggests he's ready to peak third-up. Additionally, expect him to improve with Tim Clark sticking, and he'll roll forward from the awkward draw.
Dangers: 4. Jumeirah Beach is in career-best form and won in style last start at Hawkesbury. Further, he ran fast time relative to the day and reproducing that effort here can put him in the finish. 1. Money From The Sky returns off a 163-day break and has had two solid hit-outs at the trials leading into this assignment. First-up last prep, his run had merit after having too much to do, and his fresh record is solid. Market watch on import 3. Western Front, who enters his second Australian prep and the 1550m first-up suits.
How to play it: Willinga Freefall WIN ($2.90 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 5 - 8:00PM SOCRATES HANDICAP (1900 METRES)
All key indicators suggest 5. Genetic Freak is ready to peak third-up, and the rise in trip looks ideal. The four-year-old wasn't suited to the race shape first-up at Newcastle, but he ran on well and clocked solid closing splits. Second-up, he was honest in defeat at Gosford in a strong time race, and expect him to improve sharply off that effort. The Chris Waller galloper has multiple winning figures for this event; James McDonald takes over the riding duties, and he can roll forward from the wide gate.
Dangers: 4. Condrieu is racing well and can bounce back into the winner's stall here. She maps to have all favours from an inside gate, the winkers go on for the first time, and she is proven in this grade. Forget 11. Counter's last start, where he was stirred up pre-race and was a savage drifter in the betting. He is still relatively lightly raced and can win. 3. Invincible Dash is a last-start winner and add 6. Silvakia to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Genetic Freak WIN ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 6 - 8:30PM PICCOLO ME HANDICAP (1100 METRES)
Leaning towards 2. Stromboli, who is racing in career-best form this preparation, and his run had merit last start at Randwick when finishing second. The five-year-old was checked/blocked at a critical stage, losing his momentum, but once clear, he picked up well and hit the line hard, recording one of the fastest final 200m splits of the meeting. He brings consistent figures that will put him in the finish in this event, and the fast anticipated race shape suits where he produces his peak performances.
Dangers: 9. Master Showman returns as a gelding here off a 125-day spell and has trialled well in a recent fast-time heat at Rosehill. He has a positive race setup from the inside draw and multiple winning ratings for this assignment. Expecting 8. Dodi to bounce off his first-up performance where his work past the post had merit, and the rise in trip is ideal here. 4. Gundy Bridge raced below market expectations last campaign but has always possessed ability. He looks to have returned in good order after winning a recent trial in style. Add 5. Port Albert who is a last-start winner and will roll forward.
How to play it: Stromboli WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 7 - 9:00PM KIA EVENING STAR (1250 METRES)
8. The Empire represents value and expecting sharp improvement with the gelding having a much more positive race setup here. The six-year-old has had excuses his past two runs and is going better than the form guide reads. He was caught three wide out on a limb working at a fast pace last start in the early stages at Kembla Grange, and to his credit, he never shirked his task to the line. Further, that race rated extremely well relative to the day, and the form has since been proven. The Nathan Doyle trained galloper has been freshened up for this; a senior rider goes on for the first time this prep, and he maps to have all favours. Moreover, he brings a key fitness edge relative to his rivals and back to the 1250m suits. Each-way.
Dangers: NZ import 5. Louisville is resuming and entering his second Australian prep for Chris Waller. The gelding showed improvement last campaign and was on an upwards ratings spiral before having too much to do in his final prep run. He's had a quiet trial leading into this but sets up well from a soft draw with James McDonald riding. 6. WalkinTalkin is now at optimal fitness and has a strong record at this track. 3. For Real Life, who is an interesting runner, can bounce back here and is a critical late-market watch. Add 1. Classy Jaybee to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: The Empire E/W ($12 TAB Fixed Odds).
The Empire last start at Kembla Grange on October 21
Race 8 - 9:30PM METRO PETROLEUM HANDICAP (1200 METRES)
Keen on 2. Junqueira who is ready to peak third-up with a strong platform. The mare had too much to do last start at Rosehill 13 days ago, but her run was full of merit in a strong time race. Further, she had the pace/bias against her, had to make a long-wide sustained run in the inferior ground and still recorded one of the meetings fastest final 400m splits. The John O'Shea galloper drops in grade, has multiple winning figures for this event, and James McDonald rides. In addition, she excels in high-pressure races, and all her peak figures have come in the anticipated race shape.
Dangers: 10. Pink Baroque hasn't been suited in recent runs and had excuses last start at Kensington. The four-year-old overraced in a slow tempo and was checked/blocked at a critical stage in the straight. However, once clear, she hit the line well and indicated she could bounce back here with even luck. 6. Rocketeer Girl comes through the same race as Pink Baroque and was resuming after a long break. Expect her to improve sharply, and she will roll forward. 3. Ningaloo Star is in career-best form, and she ran time when winning 10 days ago at Randwick.
How to play it: Junqueira WIN ($3.20 TAB Fixed Odds).
Best Bet: Race 8 # 2 – Junqueira
Next Best: Race 4 # 2 – Willinga Freefall
Best Value: Race 3 # 7 – I Am Famous