3 minute read
Two crack Aussie three-year-olds face a deep contest over a straight six furlongs this Saturday in a race that punters worldwide are anticipating in fervour.
Two crack Aussie three-year-olds face a deep contest over a straight six furlongs this Saturday in a race that punters worldwide are anticipating in fervour.
Yes, it is Creswick Stakes day; the clash between Star Patrol and Passive Aggressive the highlight on a terrific Flemington card. (Other useful three-year-olds Home Affairs and Artorius go in the Platinum Jubilee at Ascot as well FWIW...)
Early markets are loosely $2.50 v $2.80. Giving them ~75% between them with 25% for the others. That seems about right, the rags aren't hopeless, and so as a betting contest we will let it slide.
For a bet we look back to much more modest fare. Race four plays host to an even set of mares and barriers could go some way towards sorting them out.
Many come off the slowly run race behind Bella Rouge here two weeks ago and it was Zousonic and Americain Angel who shaped best there - both left hopelessly placed turning in but running on well in the scenario.
Americain Angel has been very consistent but her return suggested that she might have gone up a notch now and she should knock one of these off this campaign; but a wide draw and staying at 1400m (1420m to be exact) makes it easy to see her facing a similar task this time.
Quintello draws one wider but she should slide forward, and that can serve to seperate the two market leaders.
Quintello returns from the heavy tracks of Sydney which have seemingly be no disadvantage for her but a good time on good ground at Mornington in March says she will have no troubles on a sounder surface and may even be better for it.
A bigger concern might be pace and whether they have the dare to be positive and press from out wide, she was beaten off a slow pace last time having looked better in stronger tests in two runs prior, but we can trust the jock on that. 11 Flemington winners have included some good, positive rides and we only have to go back seven days to find him getting the job done on a well-fancied Intello for the stable.
Race seven is an interesting handicap for three-year-olds over 2000m with the favourite Oceana Blue a good one but well enough found given several plausible alternatives.
It's a big step up for Romany Rocks but she has found a series of bad spots this preparation so far and is desperate to run an improved race in a kinder scenario.
She backs up from Swan Hill last week where she was left way too far back, as she had been in her first two this preparation with a run where she went out too hard in the blinkers on heavy ground and paid for it in between.
A soft draw and Linda Meech looks a positive recipe and she should take a big step forward.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL
Bet Of The Day: Race 4 #2 Quintello @ $3.30
Each Way Play: Race 7 #13 Romany Rocks @ $21.00
