3 minute read

A handy ten race card at Murray Bridge with a standout bet in the feature.

A nice result last week with Sacred Palace getting over the top late, and almost a perfect day with Lord Bouzeron nabbed on the line at $5, with daylight in third.

We stay at Murray Bridge this week and it should be relatively similar conditions, bordering between soft and heavy. There looks to be a real standout on the card and I'm happy to dive into Karacasu in Race 6 despite the price trimming up early.

A horse who's shown glimpses of talent, with a nice pair of 100 ratings by Timeform either side of his first spell, he's come back even better after another break. A slight improvement on that rating in the Tobin Bronze Stakes, he was a dominant winner at this track and distance two back, posting a healthy figure of 104.

Tested behind two of the more exciting three-year-olds last time at Flemington in the Creswick Stakes, I think he should've run a clear second to unbeaten filly Passive Aggressive if not held up in the ruck by slower horses. His effort to be beaten two lengths was excellent.

Now he drops back to the scene of his big win and looks incredibly well placed under the set weights and penalties conditions, actually meeting equal second favourite Queman slightly better at the weights for a 4.5 length win. Queman has trialled the house down since, but he's still got plenty to make up and the market is suggesting Karacasu is merely a 37% better chance, which I would and am arguing strongly.

Similarly, Legless Lady is shooting for three wins in a row and is rated a $6.50 chance, yet a peak Timeform rating of 82 pales in comparison to Karacasu, and he did well and truly handle her (and fourth market elect Knightstown) as a two-year-old.

I marked him $1.60 and despite the early (read- mythical) price sharks diving in early, he should put these away.

One at a bigger price for the punters who may not want to play in the pointy end comes up in Race 3, with Scottish Dancer looking as good a chance as any but priced as high as $8.50.

He comes out of two strongly run races at Caulfield and Swan Hill, posting strong figures at each when closing off without threatening. He's established himself as a mid-nineties horse and a repeat of that would see him in the finish here.

The slight step up to 1800m looks ideal and the pace looks genuine despite the nine runners. He's not a perennial winner, but at $2.50 a place he should be in the finish, notably at a track where he's 1 from 1 and suits his style.

SAY FROM SA

Bet of the day: Race 6 #1 Karacasu @ $1.80

Value play: Race 3 #2 Scottish Dancer @ $8.50/2.60