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Form guru Gary Crispe, the founder of Racing And Sports and compiler of the official Australian Timeform ratings, is an unabashed Tawqeet fan.
Crispe is one of Australia's most astute form analysts and he believes the David Hayes-trained Tawqeet is on song to win today's Melbourne Cup.
"I'm leaning to Tawqeet,'' Crispe said.
"I know that horses who have been re-handicapped twice historically don't go well in a Melbourne Cup, but I'm not letting that statistic stop me from selecting the horse.
"With 55.5kg, he's probably got enough weight but he appeals to me as a genuine two-miler and I don't see why he can't win again.
"Pop Rock ran a super race in the Caulfield Cup and there is no doubt he will improve at Flemington.
"Geordieland has a good formline through Yeats in the Goodwood Cup.
Crispe also feels Dizelle has a chance of causing an upset today.
"Dizelle's best ever rating was 117 when she won the AJC Oaks last year and it is interesting she had not been to that level again until her last run in the Caulfield Cup,'' Crispe said.
"She was a little unlucky in that race and she seems to be going very well. She's in career-best form going into the Melbourne Cup.
"If it happens to rain, which is forecast, then she has a good chance.''
Crispe revealed Dizelle's stablemates Headturner and Railings' form slump was reflected in their Timeform ratings.
"Headturner got to a 114 rating in the Hill Stakes but it has been going down ever since,'' Crispe said.
"He dropped to 111 in the Caulfield Cup then down to 103 in the Mackinnon Stakes.
"It's hard to work out what has gone wrong but sometimes it is difficult for three-year-olds to maintain their form as four-year-olds or perhaps Headturner is not as good as we thought.
"Headturner's Derby win earlier this year was quite decisive and one of the most impressive in recent years.
"He rated 124 in that race and if he could find that sort of form again, he would just about win the Melbourne Cup.''
Crispe said Railings' ratings path was on the right track until his Mackinnon flop.
"Railings got close to his career best of 119, which he returned in The BMW earlier this year, then he went to 118 in the Turnbull Stakes but that might be about his level,'' Crispe said.
"His ratings have also gone down at his last two runs with a 116 in the Caulfield Cup and a 101 in the Mackinnon.
"Maybe the extra weight Railings has to carry these days is making it hard for him to improve to a new level.''
Article taken from The Daily Telegraph, published on Tuesday, 7th November 2006, Author, Ray Thomas, Page 36.
