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Golden Slipper 2016: Extreme Choice has the edge, says Timeform expert Gary Crispe

3 minute read

Extreme Choice will prove he is the dominant juvenile of his generation and become the 12th unbeaten Golden Slipper winner at Rosehill on Saturday, says form expert Gary Crispe.

Online article from 'The Mercury'.
Online article from "The Mercury".

Form expert Gary Crispe said all relevant statistics, race results and ratings made a compelling case for Extreme Choice to take out the $3.5 million race.

This is the 60th renewal of the world's most prestigious juvenile race and Extreme Choice is striving to join the Golden Slipper honour roll of undefeated winners after Todman (1957), Sky High (1960), Vain (1969), Baguette (1970), John's Hope (1972), Toy Show (1975), Bounding Away (1986), Guineas (1997), Sebring (2008), Pierro (2012) and Vancouver (2015).

Unbeaten winner of his only three starts including the Blue Diamond Stakes, Extreme Choice is $3.50 favourite with TAB Fixed Odds to give trainer Mick Price his first Slipper.

"Extreme Choice comes into the Golden Slipper as equal-highest Timeform-rated winner on 124 of the Blue Diamond Stakes in the past 25 years following an emphatic victory over stablemate Flying Artie,'' Crispe said.

"His Blue Diamond rating was the same returned by Sepoy in 2011 and that colt trained on to win the Golden Slipper that year.

"In theory Extreme Choice only has to reproduce his Blue Diamond Timeform rating to win the Slipper, however, there is some history against him.

"Since 2000, 12 Blue Diamond winners have had their next run in Sydney, four went straight into the Slipper, one failed in a Slipper lead-up and was spelled and seven contested a lead-up race before the Slipper.

"In a sobering statistic, all four that went straight to the Slipper failed to produce their Blue Diamond Timeform rating as did the one that failed in the lead-up race.

"Of the seven that went via a lead-up race, four failed to reproduce their Blue Diamond Timeform rating while of the remaining three, two equalled it and one ran two pounds higher.

"With Extreme Choice going straight to the Slipper, his ability to reproduce a 124 figure will be in jeopardy as history has proven that two consecutive 'grand final' ratings performances is not easy to achieve, especially in separate states.

"But the advantage Extreme Choice does have is that the colt has raced the Sydney way of going, winning at Randwick back in December.''

Extreme Choice beat stablemate Flying Artie in the Blue Diamond and Crispe predicts Price will also be celebrating a Golden Slipper quinella on Saturday.

"There was lot of merit in Extreme Choice's Blue Diamond win,'' he said.

"After sitting four deep on a frantic early tempo — all but Extreme Choice faded out of the race quickly from the home turn. Extreme Choice's overall race time was 1min 8.95 sec, being just the fifth time in Blue Diamond history that 1m 9s has been broken by the winner.

"His stablemate, Flying Artie, is the interesting runner. Flying Artie has been forced to go back at his last two runs due to wide barriers, therefore giving away big starts from the home turn.

"Flying Artie has a progressive Timeform ratings profile and can further improve, especially from a better barrier where Damien Oliver can get him into a more forward ground saving position.''

Gai Waterhouse has won the Golden Slipper a record six times but she has two very strong chances in Kiss And Make Up and Scarlet Rain — both peaking at the right time.





Capitalist 116

Astern 115

Calliope 115

Yankee Rose 115

Scarlet Rain 114

French Fern 110

Good Standing 110

Defcon 109

Star Turn 106

Telperion 104

Honesty Prevails 97

Quick Feet 96

Moqueen 95


Online article taken from The Mercury.

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