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Lys Gracieux deserves Cox Plate favouritism but ratings expert Gary Crispe makes cases for others

3 minute read

The favourite’s form, coupled with last week’s Caulfuield Cup winner, has many narrowing their sights. But a leading ratings analyst can make a case for others in Saturday’s Cox Plate.

Online article from 'The Mercury'.
Online article from "The Mercury".

Lys Gracieux's trainer and jockey are supremely confident, bookmakers are nervous but international form ratings expert Gary Crispe believes the $5 million Cox Plate is far from a fait accompli.

Crispe agrees Lys Gracieux is a deserving favourite, but warns against the perils ignoring the claims of Avilius and Irish raider Magic Wand.

Caulfield Cup-winning jockey Damian Lane has a massive opinion of TAB $3.80 elect based on her Japanese Group 1 success and previous sorties abroad.

The mare's trainer Yoshito Yahagi says he has the best horse in the weight-for-age championship and expects her to run accordingly.

But, as imposing as those views are in the quest to succeed Winx, Crispe says it is far from a one-horse race.

"I think on her best figures and on her rating from her last run in Japan (victory in the Takarazuka Kinen), she certainly is the horse to beat," Crispe said.

"Certainly on raw numbers she looks very strong.

"Magic Wand is the interesting runner with her formline through Magical and, like Lys Gracieux, has the benefit of a two kilogram allowance as a mare.

"Magic Wand is capable of producing similar numbers to Lys Gracieux. Avilius falls into that category, too."

Lys Gracieux is bidding to become Japan's first Cox Plate winner and to complete her nation's sweep of Melbourne's most coveted features.

Japan has won the Caulfield Cup twice (Admire Rakti in 2014 and Mer De Glace last week) and the Melbourne Cup (Delta Blues in 2006).

There will be a minimum of four internationals in Saturday's Group1 contest with Japanese pair Lys Gracieux and Kluger alongside England's Danceteria and Ireland's Magic Wand.

British runner Dream Castle is fourth emergency.

Third emergency Mr Quickie is in doubt because of leg soreness.

The Queensland Derby winner is also entered in the Group 2 Moonee Valley Gold Cup but will need to pass a veterinary test on Friday.

Lindsay Park's Muntahaa has been spelled after his Geelong Cup last and will miss the Melbourne Cup on November 5.

England-based Frenchman David Menuisier is confident Danceteria will handle The Valley at his Australian debut.

"It is a funny, quirky track so I think until you try you don't really know how you're going to handle it," Menuisier said.

"But I think that applies to all the horses who haven't been on that track. I think the horse is well-balanced and the track is nice and flat which is important for him. So I think he should handle it."

Danceteria missed the Ladbrokes Stakes at Caulfield on October 12 because of a minor infection.

"It was a shame but we decided to be on the side of caution because his scope wasn't perfect," Menuisier said.

"He had a little bit of mucus, so we thought we might as well bypass rather than take the chance to run in the Caulfield Stakes, just in case it did affect him.

"The horse is fine. He had his final piece of work on Tuesday morning and I'm delighted with him."


Top jockey Tommy Berry has declared "forgotten" Japanese raider Kluger a live chance in Saturday's $5m Cox Plate.

Kluger throttled all bar Winx last time out in Australia, when second to the legend in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes, and yet the eight year-old has barely earned a mention in the build-up to the weight-for-age 2040m classic.

"I've always thought and many good form students would say Winx form is the best form and this bloke has seemed to come back better this time," Berry said.

"I believe riding him in two gallops (that) he's going better (now) than he was last preparation and he definitely looks better in his coat."

Kluger loomed as the spoiler in Winx's swan song last April, emerging on the rail and chasing hard in the Randwick straight, but peaked on the run.

The rest of the field, including weight-for-age warriors Hartnell and Happy Clapper were no match.

Despite the form, the interest and most of the Cox Plate money is on Japan's top seed, Lys Gracieux, as the racing-mad country targets a second Australian major in as many Saturdays after Caulfield Cup winner Mer De Glace romped to victory last week.

"I galloped him (Kluger) going into both of his runs last preparation and he didn't want to grab the bridle where this time he's been much more switched on," Berry said.

"He worked with the mare (Lys Gracieux) … and there's nothing between them in their work.

"He's going to be there to run a big race."

The tight-turning Valley circuit is also of no concern to Kluger and Berry.

Trainer Tomokazu Takano is thrilled about Kluger's return.

"When he ran second to Winx he was well but actually he's feeling even better now, condition wise to what he was," Takano said through an interpreter.

"Lys Gracieux is a super horse and done amazing form in Japan, it's really hard to compare to Kluger's form but same time Kluger thrives in Australia.

"I really hope he goes well and we'd love to see (another) Japan win."

Online article taken from The Mercury.

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