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Orr wrong: Why Sir Dragonet’s short price doesn’t add up

3 minute read

Online article from 'racenet'.
Online article from "racenet".

Timeform Australia handicapper Adam Blencowe says past performances indicate punters and bookmakers have it wrong in betting markets for the $500,000 Group 1 CF Orr Stakes (1400m) at Caulfield.

Cox Plate winner Sir Dragonet is the well-backed favourite for the weight-for-age race but the respected form student of racing around the world says the Chris Waller-trained Imaging has the best form going into the race.

"If I asked some bloke on the street in Ireland who is going to win a 1400-metre race between two Irish horses Sir Dragonet and Imaging, I reckon he'd mark Imaging the more likely of the two," said Blencowe, who posts his racing thoughts on Twitter under the handle @NoverreMan.

"He won't be but I think I can make a fair enough case as to why he should be favourite."

Sir Dragonet is attempting to become the ninth horse to win the Orr Stakes after winning the Cox Plate the previous spring, the last horse to achieve the feat was Maldivian in 2009 but Blencowe says everything he sees in the formguide doesn't point to it happening.

"When he came across to Australia, he was no way coming here for 1400-metre races," he said.

"These are the Timeform quotes in order from his runs before he came to Australia from races that were all over 10 furlongs; 'Seems to lack the speed for this trip', 'Is in danger of becoming a nearly horse', 'Was again found wanting for tactical speed at a trip likely to prove short of his optimum', and 'Similarly to last time and the time before that, still crying out for another try at mile and a half'.

"That was in Ireland, and now in Australia, the home of sprinters – the world sprinting powerhouse, that horse is favourite in a Group 1 sprint and the evidence in Australia was a Cox Plate where they ran 39 (seconds) home up to their knees in it (mud).

"I respect Ciaron Maher and David Eustace but at less than two to one, I'll be with the horse that has the runs on the board at this sort of trip."

And that horse is Imaging.

"His George Main run is the best bit of recent form when assessing the runners for this in the formguide," he said of Imaging, who ran third in the George Main Stakes last spring.

"He hasn't won since the Ajax (Stakes) last March but his spring form was very good in races like the Missile, Winx and George Main Stakes.

"I know which way I'll be playing the race."

Online article taken from racenet.

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