3 minute read
Timeform Australia handicapper Simon Dinopolous believes there's "probably a moral" in the Group 1 George Ryder Stakes (1500m) at Rosehill on Saturday.
Dinopolous has big shoes to fill this week, stepping in for the "big dog" Adam Blencowe who's travelled south of the border to have a break, declaring it's time for the "mature-aged apprentice" to step up and fire off an opinion.
The astute form student identified the George Ryder Stakes his "race of choice" where Avilius and Funstar are joint favourites at $4.20.
"It all points to Avilius for me," Dinopolous said.
"When you go back through his form there's Avilius on a soft (6) or worse and Avilius on firmer tracks.
"Take out his 2018 run in the Melbourne Cup, he's raced six times on a soft (6) or worse and never returned a Timeform figure of less than 120.
"His first-up run in the Chipping Norton saw him produce a 121 which was his best first-up effort in Australia.
Generally he improves second-up and if he only reproduces the first-up effort he's clearly the one they have to beat.
"His best is a 125, a number he's achieved twice in the Ranvet on a heavy (8) track.
"With the track sure to be a heavy (9) or maybe even a (10), he's the horse to beat, he's probably a moral."
Dinopolous was not so complimentary when talking about the other market leader, the Chris Waller-trained Funstar.
"I don't think she is entirely at home on the heavy ground," he said.
"I know there are some performances earlier in her career that say otherwise but the Golden Eagle was her last run on it, there were no excuses and she was horrible.
"That is real form. She had the Waller trademark prep, off a peak in the Epsom, four weeks between runs with a trial, she had the right run and it's not like she got beaten a couple of lengths.
"She was still at Auburn when they crossed the line.
"After watching the Golden Eagle again, anyone lining up to take the $4 Funstar here needs to have a good lie down and take a Bex."
Dinopolous highlighted Adelaide galloper Dalasan as the best roughie in the race while offering a comment about the chances of the other runners in the weight-for-age contest.
- Kolding is a good horse but at the same time he's not at his best on a heavy track. A genuine risk.
- Dreamforce doesn't handle it, pen through him.
- Samadoubt doesn't go in it. Pen him.
- Gem Song was good winning at Newcastle but that was a firm track and his record says it's not to his liking.
- Cascadian is one that probably can win. He was pretty unlucky in the Doncaster last year on the heavy behind Nettoyer. I couldn't rule him out.
- Dalasan is an interesting one. His best form is on soft going so he's one at odds that wouldn't be a complete shock.
- Dawn Passage is interesting. Comes into this off the same set-up as he took into the Golden Eagle where he was a close third last year - second-up on the heavy off a 1300m first-up run. He just didn't go as well first-up this time but the money said he should have run better so I'm a bit wary of him.
- Junipal handles it but I can't have his name on the honour role alongside Winx.
Online article taken from racenet.