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Doncaster Form analysis: Two out of three ain’t bad

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Online article from 'racenet'.
Online article from "racenet".

Timeform Australia handicapper Simon Dinopoulos believes two of the three Godolphin gallopers represent the best value in this year's $3 million Doncaster Mile at Randwick on Saturday.

Dinopoulos says he "can only make a case for five runners" in the famous Handicap but it's the Godolphin duo of Avilius and Cascadian that present as the best risk v reward investments.

"Five of the last seven Doncaster winners have come through the George Ryder and the way Avilius and Cascadian performed at Rosehill, you can't rule them out here," Dinopoulos said.

"I know it was a couple of years ago but Avilius's best figure was 125 and he did that third up in a George Main, on a Randwick soft track.

"When you factor in what he did in the Ryder, his closing splits, he's a big chance and is probably over the odds.

"If Avilius turns up and produces his best, there's nothing between him and Mugatoo and James McDonald's got off two Group 1 winners in the past fortnight – Stay Inside and Hungry Heart so you don't think he's not going to be throwing everything at this.

"Everyone will laugh but Cascadian is going better than ever and when James sets this horse for a Group 1 mile, he runs well and probably should have already won one or two of them.

"He's flying, best speed figures last start, comes through the Ryder and drops in weight."

Avilius is a $14 chance while Cascadian, which will be ridden by Jamie Kah, is at $16 for Saturday's assignment.

The two other older horses Dinopoulos believes are in the mix are race favourite Mugatoo and George Ryder Stakes winner Think It Over.

"I can't find any real chinks in Mugatoo, he is rock solid," he said.

"I thought maybe keeping him at a mile but then you look at what Kris Lees has done with him when he's kept him fresh.

"Since he's been in Australia he's had four start where he's had three weeks or more off going into it for three wins and his only miss was the fourth in the Cox Plate.

"From a ratings prospective the All-Star Mile is the best form race coming into the Doncaster.

"Flies fresh, set for it and at the weights I think he's pretty well placed so I can't knock the favourite.

"Think it Over also comes through the Ryder and drops in weight. Career best form with the best Donny jockey."

Think it Over will be ridden by Glen Boss and is at $13 while Hugh Bowman's mount Mugatoo is the $4.50 favourite.

The last of the form analyst's winning chances has the queries but with three-year-olds having won seven of the last 20 Doncaster Miles – Mo'unga must be respected.

"The three-year-olds in general are a question mark," Dinopoulos said.

"I believe Portland Sky is the only one three-year-old to have beaten the older horses in a Group 1 this season which is trending below what it usually would be.

"That could be a chink in Mo'unga.

"The 2000 back to a mile is a tick when you look at the history of the Doncaster and Epsom but it's not the what, it's the how. Generally, it's been the gap between the runs. I know Nettoyer did it last year off two weeks but generally it's off 28 days is the sweet spot.

"Sacred Falls won it off the Rosehill Guineas which Mo'unga is trying to do but back in 2013 there was three weeks between the Rosehill Guineas and the Doncaster.

"I think that could be a chink. Barrier 21 going back to last isn't ideal either with an inexperienced rider in a race like this."

Last season's champion apprentice Robbie Dolan rides Mo'unga, an $8.50 chance while the other three-year-old Aegon is at $12.

"Aegon getting 53 (kg), they haven't missed him when you look back at the history of the race," Dinopoulos said.

"I'd say he's pretty poorly in Aegon in fairness to what his record is, certainly as a comparison to what other three-year-olds have carried in the race."

Online article taken from the racenet.

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