3 minute read

Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2022 AFL Season.

We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.

BRISBANE V MELBOURNE

Friday 19 August @ the Gabba

The end to a fascinating AFL season has as its first game of the last round such a tantalising and impactful affair.

There are so many ramifications for both of them depending on who wins or who loses - the draw would be another weird twist.

By virtue of home ground advantage alone you'd think, Brisbane is clear favourites pre-game. That seems a stretch in reality – not so much that they are favs but such a market differential is intriguing however that is tightening up.

The reason I say that is both teams SHOULD have lost their last match. Had St Kilda kicked straight, with the last quarter a travesty, they defeat the Lions. That run of set shot wayward chances was despicable. Many were a doddle.

There was not a great deal to be impressed by Brisbane. Sure they won away from home (it wasn't the MCG though). They scrambled home and had it not been for Cam Rayner nailing four goals, they were gone.

One positive was that Lachie Neale was tagged and didn't get into the game yet they still snagged the 4 points. You know he'll lift in the big ones but needs a few others to ride his coattails.

If you thought they were lucky, Melbourne was even luckier. Having had the experience of the Cripps tribunal giving Carlton some added life, the Demons were forced to endure an up and down, topsy turvy game.

On more than a handful of occasions they went behind yet the margin rarely got beyond two goals either way. However when Carlton was ahead by more than a goal so late you thought that is it – they've secured finals.

But Melbourne didn't give up and found a way to make the Blues vulnerable to skill and psychological errors. When Saad wasn't hit with that 20m pass on a wing, it surrendered them to playing on and the Premiers had a sniff.

Pressure, contest and desire got them the ball back, it entered at the kick out line and Kysaiah Pickett snapped a beauty. You could hear Carlton hearts sink from miles away.

Glass half full – Melbourne did so well to not panic and come with a rush. Glass half empty – they shouldn't have found themselves in that position.

Their ball movement has slowed since the bye. That then forces them to kick to contest going forward and also pressures the backline to not play so high up the ground. Gaps keep appearing.

If they can arrest some of that they are a big chance to win just this game at the least but it might not be so easy come September.

Will the midfields just go toe to toe without much tagging or someone wants to accept taking responsibility? Melbourne can't afford to lose 7 of their last 12.

Given I think Brisbane's form is slightly flakier when taking on the better teams, happy to take the pretty decent black figures about Melbourne.

Their midfield can put a Brisbane defence under the anxiety they may not handle given St Kilda is as third as good as Melbourne and did a fair job at it.

Match Selection: Melbourne by 17 points

Suggested Bets: Melbourne @ $2.05