3 minute read

Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2022 AFL Season.

We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.

COLLINGWOOD V CARLTON

Sunday 29 May @ MCG

Collingwood and Carlton – you can hear Eddie McGuire sprouting it right now with the extra emphasis on the 'ar'.

These two great rivals and real foe have a remarkable record with 128 wins each against each other. Obviously, given their form, the last decade has been essentially in one direction.

With this in mind you'd think it's a 50:50 game but the reality is Carlton are seemingly the real deal in 2022. As much as many don't want to believe it, it is true.

So the Pies have some hurdles to jump this week but at least they do it coming off an excellent victory on foreign fields.

They went to Perth and brought home much more than some political parties recently did. Six goals was the margin and once they'd established the lead before half time, they never looked like losing it.

What was more impressive was that it was against a team with so much to play for and in need of a quick bounce back.

The evenness of the performance was the real story. Lipinski, Crisp, N Daicos, Sidebottom, Adams and J Daicos all contributed. Notably it didn't require Scott Pendlebury to be his commanding best – that sweeping, experienced angle is now his best role.

However they may need him to roll up the sleeves and take full control this week against a team with a full-bore midfield and many avenues to goal.

Carlton had one hell of a hot streak going after quarter time against the Swans. It isn't the Sydney way to have 9 goals kicked on them in one stanza so for the Blues to generate that type scoring was incredible. It looked like a tsunami (leaving aside some interesting officialdom).

Undoubtedly they heard the footsteps from just before the last break. When Franklin nailed one from 65m, you could visibly notice the reaction of the crowd and feel the tightening up from multiple Carlton players.

It has happened a few times this year that they lost rather large leads. Luckily they held on every time as it happened again.

We probably can't afford to see Collingwood getting five goals down. They aren't as good as those who have comeback against the Blues.

But when you've got Cripps, Walsh, Hewett, Kennedy in the middle, Weitering down back, the mosquitos up front to complement Curnow and McKay when he's back, you've got the right formula.

The question for them to answer is playing the big boys. They are yet to take up the tools against Melbourne, Brisbane, St Kilda and Geelong which is a better guide.

However you can only beat that which is put in front of you and they have done it with aplomb.

Collingwood's defence will be stretched if they have fast ball movement coming in. Any team has that issue but it is vital against them.

You just can't see the Blues losing these sorts of games in 2022. They've held their nerve far more at the crucial time. The past would see them lose it.

The smalls could well become the dangerous factors in this game. Durdin, Fisher, Owies etc can feast on any Curnow scraps. Take them to nail some scores as Carlton almost seal a Top Four position.

Match Selection: Carlton by 23 points

Suggested Bets: Zac Fisher 2+ goals @ $2.50