3 minute read

Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2022 AFL Season.

We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.

BRISBANE V ST KILDA

Saturday 11 June @ the Gabba

This is one fixture this week of the Split Rounds where a team with a week off meets one on the back up and it means a lot indeed.

2nd plays 5th in a game where should the away team salute, they'd be level on points again. It is such a tight season now and one where plenty of teams are sniffing previously unthinkable flags.

Defining games in the middle of June are not usually the norm but if the Saints find a way to win this, they not only set themselves up as a real contender, they reduce Brisbane to part of the chasing pack – a position few had them even prior to last week.

In that game against the Dockers in Perth, they were certainly competitive and, in fact through into the second half. But it has become a bit of a narrative for them that they leaked plenty of scores.

The strange nature to that is that they aren't missing that many from the backline. It's been up forward they had troops out.

Fremantle got a hold of them as ¾ time loomed and then it was shoot out in the last. You don't often see 5 goals to 6 in the last quarter between two teams who are right on pace for a Preliminary Final.

The usual suspects were around the ball last week but didn't get the numbers they often rack up. Once they did allow majors at the other end, it was effectively a game of catching up – they call it a 'track meet' in US sports where it's just a fast scoring fest.

To show how that impacts Brisbane more, while they have won some of these matches, they've allowed 99, 96 & 117 points in the last three weeks.

Compare that to an across the board average through 12 games which is 78 points. 3+ more goals a game not only shows the added stretches to the defence but the added strain on the forwards needing to make that back up.

Sometimes having the week off harms momentum so what will the Lions face in a rested St Kilda team getting more confident?

A top win over Geelong was followed by taking care of business with Adelaide and North. Hardly newsworthy but important to get through unscathed.

They continue to get the run off half back and transitioning of the ball from Hill, Sinclair, Wilkie and then Ross with Crouch provides the forwards more time.

Tim Membrey doesn't have to be Nick Reiwoldt. He just has to lead up and take some heat from Max King who is the star. From there, and with the added danger of both the ruckman floating forward, defences will have a lot to be concerned with.

Brisbane sure can't afford for that to happen again in their current mindset. You can imagine here Coach Fagan will have them knowing what is needed this week. Lapses won't be tolerated.

Joe Daniher back could be such a grand occasion or a non-event as first up off a break can be a struggle. But they will be pepped up by his return.

St Kilda is certainly capable of the upset there. There should in no way be that much between them market wise. Worse case, take the points on offer. But Brisbane to bounce back – just.

Match Selection: Brisbane by 7 points

Suggested Bets: St Kilda +18.5 @ $1.90