3 minute read
Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2022 AFL Season.
We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.
BRISBANE V WESTERN BULLDOGS
Thursday 30 June @ the Gabba
A dangerous game awaits ironically for both teams at the Gabba on Thursday night as we could see the true contenders emerge or a season defined to obscurity.
Many of those who could be right at the pointy end of 2022 have tough runs home and the Western Bulldogs are but one of those. They face Brisbane here then Sydney, St Kilda, Melbourne, Geelong and Fremantle. They'll deserve to make finals or perish.
It is those Brisbane Lions that are the first to be ticked off and it is them who need to rebound as they entered the cauldron last week and got spat out the other side.
When Melbourne is on song, it is no injustice to lose to them. But it was the manner of the loss that was discouraging. Perhaps more so was that they led at the first break but once the tide turned, it was a tsunami.
Losing the contested possessions so easily is a concern, especially when you have one of the best in Lachie Neale. They have the cattle when right but are they right? Speed is their concern as well.
Losing Dayne Zorko was a major problem. Not only as a leader and a talisman, but his drive off half back has helped them immeasurably. If he does play as named that can only benefit.
They can't afford to be losing the ball from midfield or it will be the same issue this week. And that will come from a team who is bountiful with midfield strength and numbers.
The Dogs themselves were almost five goals down into the second stanza. From there they didn't panic, turned the speed on the ball around on Hawthorn and roared away. 7 goals apiece was a fun ending for viewers but it was soft in reality.
When Aaron Naughton is clunking it and kicking straight, he's one of the hardest to face in the entire league. But he was best last year when Josh Bruce was with him. Having that foil meant he couldn't be easily double teamed.
Even with Weightman and an emerging Rhylee West sniffing around the forwards crumbs, that big presence is critical. It drove them to the GF last year.
These two have a history of playing relatively close games. But many of the recent ones have gone the way of the Kennel.
The last one last year was the one that got away and it potentially could have cost the Lions a flag. That final will haunt them.
Suspect the Lions will be filthy about last week. They'll be nasty in the middle and trying to make the Gabba its fortress once more. But they have a few hurdles to overcome.
If they get beaten in the midfield again, they will lose. But their history this year is win loss win loss. It will take a reversal and one imagines, with his bevy of midfield types available, that Luke Beveridge sets one to make Lachie Neale's influence as negligible as can be.
So with that in mind, this game is on the likes of Rayner and McCluggage and a returning Zac Bailey to fire. If they do play well, then Daniher, Cameron and Hipwood will get plenty of looks.
The market has the Bulldogs a big outsider which is hard to cop. Certainly the amount of differential is hard to fathom. But this is on the Lions – a win and things are back on track – a loss and the wheels are spinning.
So it's the Lions to win but in a close one. Daniel Rich will be sweeping off half back and taking some kick ins so he's worth the play in the disposal markets. He's had 30+ three of the last five weeks.
Match Selection: Brisbane by 11 points
Suggested Bets: Daniel Rich +30 possessions @ $3.25
