3 minute read

Plenty of big talking points out of week 2, the 30th anniversary weekend of the EPL, plus the look ahead to Week 3.

The story from Week 2:

• Manchester Utd extends the away loss sequence to seven, their worst run since 1936. The EPL's most successful club hit an all-time low when humiliated by an underrated Brentford outfit.
• Two poorly behaved managers steal the limelight in a London derby thriller at Stamford Bridge.
• Nottingham Forest celebrates their first home game in the EPL for 23 years with a gritty, and a touch lucky, win over West Ham.
• Darwin Nunes channels Zidane and has an early shower at Anfield. Joachim Andersen sent a message to centre defenders across the league on how to get under this guy's skin.
• The new laws regarding goalkeepers' feet placement at penalties might see the all-time average of around 80% conversions come down a bit this season. 

Here's how week 3 shapes up.

TOTTENHAM v WOLVES: Saturday 20 August at 9.30pm

Spurs were a bit lucky to get away with anything at Stamford Bridge last weekend. The first goal looked dead-set offside and across the 90 minutes they were second best and, frankly, a little disappointing. 

Wolves again showed that scoring goals is their problem, escaping with a 0-0 draw at home to Fulham after the visitors missed a penalty with 10 minutes left.

Tottenham were stung by two early goals and didn't recover in this fixture last year in a surprise result. Wolves in fact accrued more away points than home points last season, while Spurs have only lost once at their ground since the Wolves defeat in February.

It's $1.40 the home team. They should win and we'll take them in a multi (see the bottom of this article for the complete bet). 

CRYSTAL PALACE v ASTON VILLA: Sunday 21 August 12.00am

Palace flooded the midfield and frustrated Liverpool at Anfield on Monday night, gaining an unexpected point. A special goal by Luis Diaz just after the Nunes send-off cancelled out Zaha's effort in the first half. Wilfred botched a great chance deep into the game but all things considered a draw was about right.

Villa bounced back from a tame opening loss at Bournemouth with a reasonably comfortable win over struggling Everton. A late own goal halved the advantage, but they were clearly the better side. It doesn't look a terribly strong form line though.

Palace hold possession well and create enough chances to score more often than they do. The Arsenal game in week one is exhibit A. 

The away team won the corresponding game last season during a good run of form for the Villains, they had beaten Brighton the week before and pushed Man City a week later. 

On face value $2.40 the home side is alluring, but I just don't trust them enough to invest. 

EVERTON v NOTTINGHAM FOREST: Sunday 21 August 12.00am

This is tricky.  Everton look low on confidence but find the right opponents to break out of their torpor. Forest played like men inspired last Sunday, lifted by electric home support to overcome West Ham in a tight one. It is doubtful they can recreate that effort level at Goodison.

Just when you thought Forest had brought in enough new players, three more have just landed on their doorstep. The pick of those is Dennis who is an EPL-quality striker from Watford. Everton recently beat a few clubs to the signature of Lille midfielder Onana. They need to keep Gordon from going to Chelsea and must get Calvert-Lewin back on the pitch otherwise goals will continue to be scarce.

My gut tells me Everton might get away with this, but 2.00 about a team in their form isn't quite enough. 

FULHAM v BRENTFORD: Sunday 21 August 12.00am

Very interesting match-up. Fulham backed up their opening round heroics with a tough draw at Molineux. A rare mistake by Mitrovic from the spot cost them full points. The whole world knows what Brentford was up to last weekend, dismantling Man Utd in four very different ways in an opening 36 minutes that is surely the highlight of the club's first 40 games in the EPL.

The away form of the Bees since March reads seven matches, four wins (including a 4-1 at Chelsea), two draws, and one loss. Fulham was strong at home in the Championship last season, but no better than they were away from Craven Cottage.

This reads like a draw but I'll be backing over 2.5 goals in this one. There have been at least three goals in nine of Brentford's last ten away games. Fulham belted in 106 last season at an average of 2.3 per match. For the thrill seekers, combining these thought processes might lead to a nibble at a 2-2 draw (15.00) and a 3-3 draw (55.00).  

Bet: Over 2.5 goals @ $2.02

LEICESTER v SOUTHAMPTON: Sunday 21 August 12.00am.

Both sides have leaked goals in the opening two rounds: six each. In fact, the form lines are remarkably similar in that they have played 2-2 draws against likely lower/mid table opposition and conceded 4 in heavy defeats against Champions League aspirants. 

Leicester plays entertaining football and on paper has the class edge on the Saints. Despite financial woes they have managed to keep most of last season's squad together, although the loss of Schmeichel is being felt on and off the pitch. 

The Foxes won this encounter 4-1 on the final day last season. It was a nothing game for both sides so perhaps little should be read into that result. At St Mary's the four goals were shared.  

I fancy Leicester to win and make it four straight victories at home over Southampton. One would expect a few goals as well but the over 2.5 goals price is too short. Taking Leicester in the multi. 

BOURNEMOUTH v ARSENAL: Sunday 21 August 2.30am

Arsenal has started this season with a bang, digging deep to hold out Palace away in week one then twice responding quickly against Leicester last weekend after the Foxes scored to get home comfortably. Bournemouth did about as well as expected against City last time after a euphoric win on opening day at home against Villa. 

This is another stiff test for Bournemouth who have City/Arsenal/Liverpool consecutively. They protect an unbeaten 11-match run at home in the Championship/EPL but obviously this is a far stiffer test. Arsenal is playing with flair and confidence not seen since Wenger's days in charge. With Martinelli now firing, Jesus scoring for fun, and strength from left to right along the backline and midfield, they look every bit the top-four challengers we anticipated. 

Arsenal has won eight of the last 11 matches between these clubs. Happy to have them to win again in the multi at 1.45. 

LEEDS v CHELSEA: Sunday 21 August 11.00pm

Bielsa may have departed but Leeds remains enigmatic and great value for money from a neutral viewer's perspective. They have recruited well following the big-name departures Phillips and Raphinha. Their opening games were contrasts – a come-from-behind win at home to Wolves then a late capitulation to only take a point at Southampton.

Chelsea dominated large portions of their big clash against Spurs and should feel robbed of two points. Koulibaly is going to prove an able replacement for Rudiger. If they snare Fofana from Leicester it will add some steel to their backline which, along with a genuine #9, is their missing piece.

The Blues won both matches between these two in 21/22, netting six goals along the way. In fact, the scorecard in the last five encounters reads four Chelsea wins and a draw, 14 goals scored and four conceded. This looks sure to be fast-paced, open and enterprising game that Chelsea should win. Throwing them in the multi at 1.55. 

WEST HAM v BRIGHTON: Sunday 21 August 11.00pm.

This is the fixture Hammers' faithful fear. Their last win over Brighton came in the Championship in 2014. Since then, the sides have met ten times with Brighton winning four and six ending in draws. The last four fixtures on West Ham soil have ended in score-draws. 

West Ham are the only EPL side yet to score in 22/23, although they hammered the cross bar twice, had a goal disallowed, and missed a pen at Forest. Defensively they are struggling with Diop gone and Aguard, Ogbonna and Dawson all on the injury list. Moyes must introduce Scamacca and Cornet for this game to enliven them in the final third of the pitch. A Thursday Europa Conference League tie might be a good opportunity to break them in. 

Brighton continues to impress. They had the better of Newcastle for most of that entertaining 0-0 draw at home and narrowly missed several scoring chances. Their strong possession game and aggression in attack always bothers the Irons.

Given the strong history of draws between the pair, that looks a nice option.

Bets: 1-1 draw @ 7.00 and 2-2 draw @ 16.50

NEWCASTLE v MANCHESTER CITY: Monday 22 August 1.30am.

Really looking forward to this one, particularly to see how Eddie Howe plots the demise of the competition favourites. I suspect Newcastle will take it up to City as they need to make a statement. Brighton dominated them for large portions of last weekend's match which came as a bit of a surprise. 

Almiron and Saint Maximan are exhilarating going forward and will give the visitors some headaches. From the set piece they have some big boppers too like Joelinton and Burn.

City has hardly switched out of first gear in their two wins against West Ham and Bournemouth. Haaland was not the dominant force last weekend as anticipated but they didn't need him. The Magpies away is easily their stiffest test to date. Don't expect 4-0 and 5-0 whitewashes as we saw between these two last season. 

A win to City will be the first time since 16/17 they have won their opening three matches. The 1.40 on offer looks about right, but I think this is one I'd rather watch and enjoy than make an investment. 

MANCHESTER UTD v LIVERPOOL: Tuesday 23 August 5.00am. 

Has Man U ever been 5.50 to win at home in the EPL era? I doubt it, but it is justified. They are a rabble – Ronaldo's reluctant presence is a cancer that is spreading throughout the squad. De Gea is vulnerable, Bruno looks petulant and uninterested, Maguire is an uninspiring captain, and there are the likes of Fred, Sancho and McTominay who wouldn't get a gig on the reserves bench of the other top sides. 

The plight of the Red Devils has probably over-shadowed Liverpool's poor start, but they still play with passion and are never out of the contest. Fulham and Palace have both managed to strangle them sufficiently in the middle of the park to somewhat nullify their attack. Moments of brilliance from Nunes in game one and Diaz last Monday night have kept the Reds from an embarrassing start.  

It's not panic stations just yet. They can drop 16 points and still win the title; they have dropped four so far but a host of key injuries are hurting a squad even of this depth. With Darwin out Salah may play the #9 role in this match if Firmino is not ready to return. Origi and Mane are being missed already. 

If you need a win badly like Liverpool do there would be few more appealing assignments than Man U at the moment. However, I think the Brentford debacle was so bad there must be some recoil, particularly back at Old Trafford. Liverpool also needs to shed this habit of conceding first. I doubt Man U can win because they simply aren't good enough, but this won't be a procession.

No betting, just watch the next chapter of the soap opera unfold. 

This week's multis – all to win their matches 

Banker: Tottenham/Arsenal/Chelsea @ 3.15.

Added value: Tottenham/Leicester/Arsenal/Chelsea @ 5.97.