3 minute read
R&S soccer expert Mick Bennett runs his eye over the 20 teams in the upcoming EPL season and looks forward to those futures bets to take you all the way through the next nine months until another champion is crowned.
The 31st season of the English Premier League kicks off on Saturday morning Australian time!
Before each round we'll take a brief look at all the games from a wagering perspective and spot the nice plays for your punting pleasure.
With the early matches not too appealing from that perspective, let's look forward at the futures betting.
EPL WINNER
It is looking very much like a two-horse race again, although the 18-point gap between 2nd and 3rd last year is likely to be a bit tighter this season.
The reason this gap might close is that Manchester City and Liverpool do not look stronger on paper in 22/23; in fact it could be argued that City in particular look a little weaker with Sterling, Zinchenko, Fernandinho and Jesus all departing.
Haaland is clearly a big import and is sure to be effective, but Phillips is the other key signing and it is doubtful he improves their midfield to any great degree, if it all.
Liverpool has been conservative in the transfer market for a few seasons, preferring to rely on the stability of a very dependable squad with just the occasional injection of new blood – and it is invariably a good injection.
Nunez from Benfica comes in and will slot into an attacking three with the departure of Mane. He has already made an impact in the Community Shield.
Highlights of the moment Liverpool broke a 16-year community shield jinx to beat Man City 3-1.
— #ChampionsLeague (@alimo_philip) July 30, 2022
21’ Trent Alexander-Arnold
70’ Julian Alvarez
83’ Mo Salah
94’ Darwin Nunez #LIVMCI|#LFC|#CommunityShield pic.twitter.com/fhOl9eHKz3
With City at around 1.70 and Liverpool 3.50, I lean slightly to Liverpool at the value. There was a split hair between them last season and this price differential looks too great for mine.
BET: Liverpool @ $3.50 for the title.
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE SPOTS
It probably boils down to four teams to fill the last two positions after City and Liverpool.
The buzz around Tottenham in the off-season has been relentless and with some justification.
They picked up points in all four games against City and Liverpool last season which is no mean feat. Perisic, Bissouma, Lenglet and Richarlison are big names to come into an already classy squad.
They have a world-class manager, but he is a bit of a loose cannon, and it could all end in tears. If it doesn't, Spurs are looking down the barrel of third.
Arsenal could be the surprise packet for the fourth spot and outside the top two they were the form team after Xmas last season.
A couple of wobbles late in the year against Southampton and Newcastle cost them a Champions League berth but some excellent recruitment in the off-season can deliver them a long-awaited return to the big stage.
Jesus looks a perfect fit for them up front, and already has seven goals for them in pre-season matches. Zinchenko gives them options both in attack and defence down the left side. If the Gunners' bid for Tielemans is successful, he will add real class to the midfield.
Manchester United are the query team. If new manager Ten Hag can get the best of the likes of Martial and Rashford up front they are a big chance to improve on last season, particularly with Eriksson directing traffic.
The Fred/McTominay midfield continues to be their 'Achilles heel' though.
Chelsea might be the side that slides a little this season.
Sterling's goalscoring holds the key. A genuine #9 has been the problem for the West-Londoners since the days of Drogba and Zola. Lukaku has been a costly failure, and Werner is to my eye a little fragile in the physical EPL.
At the time of writing there are murmurs of a move to Newcastle. The loss of Rudiger is huge, compensated to some degree by the introduction of Koulibaly from Napoli. His stats in Serie A were impressive last season and he will be an able replacement if he can transfer that form to the EPL.
BET: Arsenal @3.00 to finish in the top four.
RELEGATION
The attention generally surrounds the promoted clubs, and this season is no exception.
In the last eight seasons, the Championship winner has survived their first season in the EPL six times; the two exceptions were Norwich City and Norwich City!
So statistically it augers well for Fulham staying up, especially when one considers they smacked in 106 goals last season, 32 more than any other side in the division, with Mitrovic the main weapon. He was plain in Fulham's last EPL season but that was probably an aberration.
Portuguese international Palhinha, Swiss right back Mbabu, and Pereira from Man Utd are all good signings for a club of Fulham's stature. They look safe.
In five of the last eight seasons, two promoted teams have gone back down. On two occasions one team has been relegated, and the other time in 2017/18 they all survived. So statistically if Fulham are okay, either Bournemouth or Forest are on thin ice.
Forest's total of 80 points last year is historically not good enough for a promoted team – only Villa has scored less and stayed up after promotion since 2013. But the Forest story runs a bit deeper. They were 1-1-6 for a meagre 4 points in September when manager Steve Cooper arrived.
But a change in defensive formation triggered a remarkable recovery and it wasn't just in the Championship – they took the scalps of Arsenal and Leicester in an FA Cup run which finally ended with a 1-0 loss to Liverpool at home.
They showed enough with last year's squad to suggest they can survive; however, the introduction of 12 new signings in the off-season indicates they won't be resting on their laurels.
Bournemouth had a strong 21/22 under Scott Parker and had the best defence in the league. A quiet off-season on the transfer market to this point could come back to bite them. I think they will head back to the Championship.
So that leaves two of last year's EPL teams for the drop. For mine the positions will be filled by Everton, Leeds or Southampton who were the sides directly above the three that dropped last season.
The thought of Everton being out of the top flight is almost impossible to contemplate but the near miss last season was not some momentary misadventure; they have a pretty shallow squad with a manager who is favourite in the 'first to be sacked' markets for a reason.
It's probably a bit early to predict who will go down but these are the ones most likely – we'll watch the first six or eight rounds with interest.
THE REST
Newcastle will be pressing for European qualification and are the most likely side to upset the top-six matrix. While their off-season activity has not been as dynamic as the summer after the Abu Dhabi takeover at Man City, the squad is building nicely.
Rumours abound regarding other signings, although so far they have surprisingly missed all their striker targets which is a key area in need of improvement. If they continue the form from the back-end of last season they will be firmly in the top eight.
West Ham cost themselves any chance of Champions League football last season when they failed to add to an already thin squad in the January window. They simply ran out of legs in the final weeks of the season. The signing of Italian Scamacca is potentially huge for the Hammers.
It has been a long while since they have had a #9 that has scored 15 goals in a season, but this imposing striker could be one of the best pieces of business in the 22/23 season. If he fires, the Irons are top-six material at least. But it is a big 'if' – remember Sebastian Haller?
Aston Villa, Palace, Leicester and Wolves for mine fall into the no-man's land category; that is, they won't be relegated but I can't see them pushing for Europe.
Brentford and Brighton over-achieved last season in many pundit's eyes. Both sides have lost their main playmakers to bigger clubs (Eriksson Brentford to Man U/Bissouma Brighton to Spurs). Brighton should be safe, Brentford probably less so but I expect they will be around 14th or 15th.
PREDICTED FINISH
Egg on face time. This is like trying to pick the finishing order in the Doncaster. Some we'll get right, others could be way off the mark as the unexpected is always to be expected.
1. Liverpool
2. Manchester City
3. Tottenham
4. Arsenal
5. Chelsea
6. Manchester United
7. Newcastle
8. West Ham
9. Aston Villa
10. Wolverhampton Wolves
11. Leicester
12. Fulham
13. Crystal Palace
14. Brighton
15. Brentford
16. Nottingham Forest
17. Everton
18. Leeds
19. Southampton
20. Bournemouth
