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Autumn Carnival Blackbookers History Says To Follow

3 minute read

The Sydney autumn carnival is done and dusted for 2020 and based on using historical references, here are three horses to follow for the remainder of the year.

The 2020 Sydney autumn carnival boasted some impressive performances including Nature Strip winning the Group 1 TJ Smith Stakes (1200m) and Addeybb claiming victory in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m).

These prestigious Group 1 events always garner peak attention while quality support races on their respective programs often feature displays which don’t perhaps attract the focus they warrant.

The performances not only deserve to be blackbooked for how strong they are on face value, but for how form out of prior renewals of the races they contest stack up over the following months. 

Here are three horses who showed enough through the autumn and have a favourable historical profile to suggest they can transition to the highest level themselves. 

KINANE winning the Cactus Imaging Frank Packer Plate.
KINANE winning the Cactus Imaging Frank Packer Plate. Picture: Steve Hart
 

Kinane: 3YO Gelding, Reliable Man x Tres Rapide (Nom Du Jeu)

Trainer: Chris Waller

Master Timeform Rating: 112 - Group 3 Frank Packer Plate (2000m)

This was a convincing win, so convincing James McDonald suggested Kinane was one of his more exciting rides of this autumn carnival. It’s a strong endorsement by a jockey who has ridden the likes of Nature Strip, Verry Elleegant and Danon Premium  during that period.

Kinane’s Frank Packer Plate display returned a Timeform rating of 112, a figure which sits right on the five year winning average of the race.

 

It’s a good race to win moving forward looking at how form from the event has generally stacked up moving deeper into the year. Four Frank Packer Plate winners in the past decade have gone on to win a Group 1, Dariana, Shootoff, Fat Al and He's Our Rokkii.

Dariana (2010) and Shootoff (2011) claimed their respective Group 1’s in the Queensland Derby of that year. Fat Al (2012) and He’s Our Rokkii (2016) got their Group 1’s during the spring, winning the Epsom Handicap (1600m) and Toorak Handicap (1600m) respectively.

So much here bodes well for Kinane who is likely off to the South Australian Derby (2500m) next although there is warranted interest from prospective buyers in Hong Kong.

As a side note, the Waterhouse-Bott-trained third placegetter Entente could also be one to watch in the spring. He’s enjoyed a breakout prep since being gelded in the summer and profiles as a nice miler type. 

After winning the Carbine Club Stakes (as did Entente), Fat Al won the Frank Packer Plate for Gai Waterhouse in 2012 and then went on to win the Epsom six months later.

DOUBTLAND winning the Widden Kindergarten Stakes
DOUBTLAND winning the Widden Kindergarten Stakes Picture: Bradley Photography
 

Doubtland: 2YO Colt, Not A Single Doubt x Miss Sharapova (Ustinov)

Trainer: Team Hawkes

Master Timeform Rating: 112+ - Group 3 Kindergarten Stakes (1100m)

Did anyone say 2020 Golden Rose???

The Kindergarten Stakes is a good event to take out and Doubtland claimed the 2020 renewal with the biggest winning margin since Solar Charged won in 2010. History says this race plays host to some two-year-olds who develop into impressive three-year-olds.

In the last six years, three subsequent Golden Rose Stakes winners have won this race during the autumn, Hallowed Crown in 2014, Astern in 2016 and Bivouac in 2019.

Each of these three above mentioned colts claimed the Kindergarten Stakes, Run To The Rose, Golden Rose treble.

The Kindergarten Stakes is very much a support race on Day 1 of The Championships however the form line has generally been making waves in the following spring - don’t let him sneak under your radar.

MAMARAGAN winning the Schweppes Skyline Stakes
MAMARAGAN winning the Schweppes Skyline Stakes Picture: Racing and Sports
 

Mamaragan: 2YO Colt, Wandjina x Forbidden (General Nediym)

Trainer: John Thompson

Master Timeform Rating: 112 - 3rd, Group 1 Golden Slipper (1200m)

Skyline Stakes winner and Golden Slipper placegetter Mamaragan looks on course to develop into an impressive three-year-old. 

It’s rare a two-year-old can perform so boldly in a Golden Slipper at just their second career outing, running third behind far more seasoned two-year-old counterparts Farnan and Away Game

He then proceeded to back the display up with a third in the Sires’ Produce Stakes a fortnight later behind subsequent Champagne Stakes winner King's Legacy.

The last two-year-old to place in a Golden Slipper at just their second career start was Mosheen in 2011. She proceeded to accumulate four Group 1 wins during her three-year-old season, the VRC Oaks (2500m), Australian Guineas (1600m), Randwick Guineas (1600m) and the Vinery Stud Stakes (2000m).


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